Posted on 04/21/2024 9:38:16 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Immigration won’t decide the election. Polls have not yet captured what will. This may come as a surprise, but the top issue housing. More explicitly, it’s shelter costs.
The Economy
The economy is a very broad category that encompasses inflation, jobs, unemployment, wages, rent, and housing.
Other polls split the economy in various pieces, such as inflation and jobs. Not a single poll mentioned housing specifically.
Q: What is it that young voters really have on their minds?
A: Rent
The CPI Rose Sharply in March Led by Shelter and Gasoline
The CPI rose 0.4 percent in March. Rent was up another 0.4 percent with gasoline up 1.7 percent. Together, the pair was about half of the total rise.
Rent of primary residence, the cost that best equates to the rent people pay, jumped another 0.4 percent in March. Rent of primary residence has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 31 consecutive months!
The “rents are falling” (or soon will) projections have been based on the price of new leases and cherry picked markets. But existing leases, much more important, keep rising.
Only 8 to 9 percent of renters move each year. It’s been a huge mistake thinking new leases and finished construction would drive rent prices.
Rent does not really go up every month. The BLS smooths things out over time. Instead, rent has surged once a year more than wages have kept up.
Immigration Not the Key Issue Where It Matters
I sympathize with the view that immigration is the key issue, and perhaps it is to voters nationally.
Mayors in Chicago, Denver, and New York city are all bitterly complaining. So are governors Greg Abbot in Texas and Ron DeSantis in Florida. Add in California for good measure.
Those six states provide 188 of the 270 electoral college votes but none of them are in play.
The six swing states are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona. Immigration is only a hot issue in Arizona where abortion is also in play.
Blacks Abandon Biden
A WSJ Swing State Poll show blacks, especially black males, are abandoning Biden in huge numbers.
In the swing states, 30 percent of black males now support Trump. That’s up from 12 percent in the 2020 election. Trump support from black females is up from 6 percent to 11 percent.
The numbers are not directly comparable because the 2020 numbers are national. However, the numbers flash a huge warning sign.
The WSJ poll confirms the NYT/ Siena poll from last October: Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds
Young Voters Say Their Discontent Goes Deeper Than Israel and Gaza
Israel is a big issue in Michigan, likely more so than immigration.
But across the board, Young Voters Say Their Discontent Goes Deeper Than Israel and Gaza
Generational Homeownership Rates
Who Are the Renters?
The answer is younger voters and blacks. The Apartment List 2023 Millennial Homeownership Report shows Millennial homeownership seriously lags other generations.
Generation Z homeownership is dramatically lower still. And according to the National Association of Realtors, the homeownership rate among Black Americans is 44 percent whereas for White Americans it’s 72.7 percent.
That’s the largest Black-White homeownership rate gap in a decade.
Home Prices Hit New Record High
The latest Case-Shiller housing data shows home prices hit a new record high.
Adding insults and costs, the 30-year mortgage rate ended last week at 7.30 percent according to Mortgage News Daily.
Those looking to buy a home are very angry about being priced out while watching rent soar for nearly three years.
Explaining the Polls
The homeownership discrepancy (Black/White, and Young/Old) fully explains the polls. Yet not a single pollster or economist is in tune with relationship.
A high percentage of blacks and young voters are likely vote for Biden, but the shift vs 2020 is what will matter.
President Biden and economists in general keep singing the praises of the economy.
On average the economy is doing OK. And asset holders have generally fared well in this economy. But averages will not decide the election.
The Abortion Issue Comes Alive in Arizona
On April 17, I wrote The Abortion Issue Comes Alive in Arizona, It Could Cost Republicans Dearly That’s still my position with an emphasis on the word “could”.
What About Trump’s Legal Issues?
Trump will lose some Republicans and undecided voters who may sit the election out on grounds that Trump was part of an insurrection or contributed to one. However, The Need to Prevent a Biden Economic Collapse Outweighs Charges Against Trump
Republicans are willing to look the other way on the charges against Trump.
So, if current trends hold, it’s the economy that will matter.
Specifically, the election will be decided by extreme unhappiness in the block of voters who rent but want to by a home, concluding things were better under Trump.
What's this obsession with the right to abortion? Do these youts really forsee aborting a baby in their lives?
Accuracy of the Voter Rolls will determine the outcome of the election.
Trump is behind the eight-ball on the rolls issue.
Mostly female voters. Trump recognizes that. If their state want to legalize abortion, then let them.
In half of the swing states listed, rents are rising robustly.
Renters are mostly Demcrats. Renters will vote for the welfare state. The welfare state is Demcommierat.
But the "I will never own a house" guys who spend $2000 on getting food delivered are not smart enough to put two and two together.
So renters have replaced soccer moms. Good to know.
If Pres Trump wins, home prices will go up even as the industry markets that with going back to DC, the economy will soon be booming and everyone will be able to everything.
Make it illegal for all the hedge funds, Wall St and private equity to buy up and turn the country into one big rental. When their inventories are dumped prices will drop and then level off
“Democracy Dies After Dark”
O Rly? People who rent...they run the Dominion machines, send Republicans home early on the night of the election, and stuff the ballot boxes?
Our best friend has seen her rent rise about 15% in the last 3 years. She pays over $1,600 a month plus utilities for a 1 bedroom apartment.
It’s crazy.
L
I’m paying 1000 for a house (3 bedroom/1 and a half bath) with a lawn and everything.
It’s a pretty janky house, but for 1000/mo, I’m cool with it.
senior citizens rent too.
the world is in not so good a place right now, so ‘the mils’ wish to change that before having a baby.
this leasing year , my rent went up $45 a month.
past years, it was an incremental $10 increase a leasing year.
i was stationed at the airbase in delaware when biden was elected to the senate. he was no good then, and has been consistent all these years.
entering service from the tri-state area, i have known trump since before the towers went up. he has been consistent too.
trump 2024.
the best we can hope for with biden is a triple play funeral...carter, clinton snd biden.
So?
EVERY 'next generation' will lag all the others, until their youthful lust for 'things' is replaced by their more mature desire for value.
NEVER was a word I would suppose a LOT of us said when we were wild and wooly, too.
I have 13 acres, free water from the ground, no mortgage and a brand new mower on the way.
Happy camper.
Luckily, I’m free to move in with you.
Send directions.
It has always been the economy
The Saudis will raise oil prices in the summer , therefore since oil prices are a big indicator of cpi this will lead to cpi either staying same or rising before election
I won’t buy stocks until after election
The dims and their media are pushing the abortion issue.
My two kids are renters. Neither are married. Their main issue is what is hitting them every day: Increased costs across the board while their pay is not keeping up and no end in sight.
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