Posted on 06/24/2002 3:54:41 PM PDT by knighthawk
The latest suicide bomb attacks in Jerusalem are just another consequence of the Israeli occupation of Arab lands. This was the standard line of all Arab countries -- including the so-called moderate states. Suicide bombers now enjoy such a degree of legitimacy in the Arab world that each attack is accepted as a military operation rather than a barbaric act of a deranged individual supported by a sinister web of extremists. This shocking fact is representative of not only Israel's problems with its neighbours, but also of the West's increasingly difficult relationship with the Arab world, both of which are a direct product of the deepening crisis within Arab states.
Militant Islam has taken centre stage since the Sept. 11 attacks, but this is only one cause among many that has led the Middle East into crisis. Questions over the legitimacy of rulers, lack of democratization, increased competition over decreasing natural resources and inter-Arab disputes have all contributed.
The lack of legitimacy of rulers is a central feature of Arab states, where rule is based either on a dubious tradition of monarchy or a military junta. Democracy is viewed as a dangerous concept for it threatens the right of the ruler to continue in his position. Elections that are tolerated are rigged, either disqualifying any serious opposition candidates or simply miscounting the votes to give a leader the famous 99%.
Even the Gulf states, where once oil revenues guaranteed support for local rulers -- there was no need for taxation and everyone could be found a job -- are in trouble. With falling oil revenues comes increased taxation, which leads to greater demands for a say in how the money is spent. This, in turn, translates into popular support for democratization and makes it harder for leaders of these totalitarian regimes to retain power without resorting to the use of increased force, coercion and simple intimidation.
Water has become a major issue in the Arab world. Israel is light years ahead in developing technology for maximizing water supply. Though even here, Israel is facing its worst water shortage in a generation, and is actually considering importing water supplies from Turkey. The situation in Arab states is even worse to the extent that if there is going to be another major regional war it will likely be fought over control of water resources, and not the Arab-Israel conflict.
Economic liberalization -- or the opening up of Arab markets to global competition -- terrifies Arab leaders who suspect that the short term social costs of a restructuring program (economic stagnation and increased unemployment) will cause popular discontent and lead to serious civil strife. The fear of opening up the closed Syrian economy to the world played a large role in the late president Asad's decision not to agree to a peace treaty with Israel in 1994. This even after Yitzhak Rabin, the Israeli prime minister, had offered to return the entire Golan Heights to Syria. In short, Asad feared that peace with Israel would undermine his own position by causing a short-term economic crisis.
The vast majority of modern Arab states were artificially created by the West (France and Great Britain), and the key issue in 2002 centres around the creation by the West (the United States and European Union) of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Clearly, the artificial creation of another crisis-torn Arab state will increase, not reduce the problems of the Middle East. In truth, we should be looking in the opposite direction. There is not only a compelling case for a Jordanian-Palestinian confederation, but also for a Lebanese-Syrian confederation and, in the long-term, a European Union-style model of economic and political integration in the Arab world. I am a realist, so I do not include Israel in such a vision, though its high-tech expertise and need for cheap labour make it, in economic terms, a very natural participant.
Before all this happens, there is a need to see wide-ranging political reform of not only the Palestinian Authority but of the entire Arab world. It is unlikely that these reforms will originate from the leadership and it is difficult to foresee how levels of popular support for change can be developed from the outside. In short, it appears that those who support democracy, a healthy civil society and economic co-operation will have to play a waiting game. In the meantime, Arab states will continue to blame Israel and the West for the problems of the region, and as a result, Islamic radicals will continue to gain ground. To create a Palestinian state in this regional environment would be foolhardy, both for the Palestinians, and for the wider world.
I personally doubt it, but if only it were true.
I can't think of a better strategic advantage in fighting a desert war than against an enemy whose canteen is empty.
Even Dutch tap water would look like Nectar of the Gods for those poor bastards.
We call tap water 'gemeentepils' meaning 'local authority lager'. LOL!
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