Posted on 07/29/2002 2:53:18 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
An orchestrated campaign to have China's president keep most of his influential posts is being played out in the media, and it's not yet clear if he can succeed
By Hsia Wen-szu ®L¤å«ä
Jiang Zemin (¦¿¿A¥Á) is needed for political stability," read the cover headline of the March issue of Hong Kong's leftist magazine The Mirror (Ãè³ø). The article said, "That Jiang will serve another term as the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) secretary-general ... is a consensus among Chinese people and within the party," and "Jiang's taking the nation's helm is good news for the Chinese people." This is the prelude to a series of campaigns Jiang has started inside the party to "persuade" him to stay.
Earlier, The Mirror had misunderstood Jiang's intent -- deeming that Jiang was willing to step down from the secretary-general's post -- and reported in its October issue last year that Jiang would announce his retirement in the party's 16th National Congress. That article said Jiang had reiterated his decision in last year's Beidaihe conference (¥_À¹ªe·|ij) that at 16th National Congress he would withdraw from all his posts.
"I've deeply pondered and considered the matter from all sides before putting forth this request. I believe my decision is in the party's and state's interest," Jiang was quoted in the magazine as saying. "We, at this age, might as well provide some ideas. But we lack the physical strength to fulfill our wishes. If we continue to occupy the positions and hinder those capable from carrying out tasks, it does no good to anyone. So now that I'm retiring, I would like to retire from all the posts I'm holding."
That article, however, was severely criticized by Jiang's office. The Mirror, in an attempt to make amends for its previous fault, took the lead in its March issue, hailing, "The CCP cannot be criticized; Jiang cannot step down."
Up to last year, Jiang did mention several times that he would hand over his posts to young people at the 16th National Congress. But with the congress drawing near, Jiang has been loosening his tone, leaving his succession to the party's decision. In his latest party speech, Jiang said, "Since our comrades requested [me to remain the leader], I can continue to dedicate my life to the state." But does that mean he'll quit as the party's secretary-general?
At the same time, voices began to emerge begging Jiang to stay. Since Jiang's speech at the Central Party School (¤¤¥¡ÄÒ®Õ) on May 31, in which he clearly alluded to his intention to remain in his posts, campaigns inside the CCP, especially the military, appealing for Jiang to stay have become a massive movement. With the concerted campaigns by the pro-Jiang faction, the four headquarters of People's Liberation Army and all the other services held "expanded conferences of party committees" (ÄÒ©eÂX¤j·|ij) in June and unanimously demanded that Jiang retain the post of party secretary-general.
Some local leaders in provinces of Jiangxi, Guangdong and Guangxi were ordered to take the lead in asking Jiang to stay. Other provinces and cities will follow suit. The pro-Jiang faction hopes to create a powerful wave of requests for Jiang to stay in his post by the time of the Political Bureau (¬Fªv§½) meeting at the end of July and the Beidaihe conference in August. The goal is to form a consensus inside the party and submit it to the 16th National Congress with the help of the CCP Central Committee (¤¤¥þ·|).
Jiang has said inside the party that he will withdraw from all the posts he's holding but that the whole party must beg him to stay. He can then humbly comply with the people's request and continue to work for the party and the country. This trick -- having one draped with the imperial yellow robe by one's supporters (¶À³T¥[¨), as a Chinese phrase goes -- can be traced back thousands of years ago.
As Chinese scholars pointed out, Jiang's words and behavior are looking more and more like those of Mao Zedong (¤ò¿AªF). As the leader of more than a billion people, Jiang enjoys supreme power and the joy of freedom from all restraints, just like an emperor.
The scholars also say that the pro-Jiang faction has actually been lauding Jiang to satisfy Jiang's selfish desire to cling to power. Eighty percent of the Chinese intellectuals -- whether they are leftists, centrists or rightists and no matter what attitudes they adopt toward the political systems -- hope that the frivolous and grandstanding Jiang will step down and hand over power to Hu Jintao (JÀAÀÜ), who they believe is a leader who can get things done.
Facing the powerful campaign planned by the pro-Jiang faction to plead with Jiang to stay in power, Hu has no alternative but to join the chorus, expressing his wish that Jiang can remain the leader of the party and the country. According to those who know Hu, all he can do now is to keep calm and patient and let things develop naturally.
The pro-Jiang faction's plan reportedly is to have Jiang hand over only his presidency to Hu at the 16th National Congress, making Hu No. 2 in the leadership hierarchy as well as vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (¤¤¥¡x¨Æ©eû·|). Now Hu is listed as the fifth-ranking standing committee member in the Political Bureau, behind Jiang, Li Peng (§õÄP), Zhu Rongji (¦¶Âè°ò) and Li Ruihuan (§õ·çÀô).
As the pro-Jiang faction stirs up the hype requesting Jiang to stay, comments detrimental to Hu have emerged in Beijing. Hu reportedly has four serious problems. First, he has no track record of political achievements. Second, Hu should be held responsible for the scandal involving embezzlement of donations to the Hope Project by the China Youth Development Foundation («C°ò·|). Third, Hu accepted US President George W. Bush's invitation to visit the US on the spot without Beijing's consent. And fourth, he has health problems. Hu reportedly suffered from high-altitude sickness while serving as secretary of the CCP's Tibet Autonomous Region Committee.
Will the power struggles in China's high-level authorities intensify if Jiang refuses to step down? Now some signs suggest that the answer is positive.
An article, entitled "Trend toward younger leaders irreversible" -- published in the latest issue of Guang Jiao Jing (¼s¨¤Ãè), a magazine with a Chinese military background -- discussed future movements in Zhongnanhai (¤¤«n®ü). It said although the tenures of the party's secretary-general and chairman of the Central Military Commission are not stipulated in the CCP's constitution, Qiao Shi (³ì¥Û) set a precedent at the 15th National Congress for standing committee members in the Political Bureau to retire by the age of 70.
But that article only mentioned four people who by the time of the 16th National Congress will be in their 70s -- Li Peng, 74, Zhu Rongji, 74, Wei Jianxing (±L°·¦æ), 71, and Li Lanqing (§õ´P²M), 70. Only the name of the 74-year-old Jiang was omitted. But the suggestion was there. That article can be seem as a message from some CCP members who oppose Jiang's serving another term as China's leader.
In early May, Jiang met with a group of military leaders while attending the Asian Development Bank (¨È¬w¶}µo»È¦æ) conference in Shanghai. During the meeting, Jiang raised an interesting question: What should we do if there is an ambitious individual in the government? He then demanded that each attendee express their opinions.
After the meeting, Wei, the sixth-ranking standing committee member in the Political Bureau, informed these servicemen that Jiang's words did not represent the opinion of the headquarters. Later, Wei also criticized Jiang at the bureau meeting, saying that Jiang's attempt to uncover any ambitious individual would breach the party charter and would be deleterious to political stability prior to the 16th National Congress. He added that the party will fall apart if everyone works to ferret out ambitious people.
All those hearing this through the grapevine were curious about who the ambitious individual Jiang referred to was. His successor Hu was designated by Deng Xiaoping (¾H¤p¥) and the succession has become a consensus within the party. In addition, Hu does not engage in petty squabbling, so he is not likely to be tagged as an ambitious individual.
Some thought it could be Li Ruihuan or Zhu. Aside from Wei, Zhu reportedly is another standing committee member strongly opposed to Jiang's staying in power. He reiterated at several Political Bureau meetings that anyone who has reached a certain age must retire. Zhu told his subordinates at one point that if Jiang does not step down, he will make public every dirty secret because China can no longer implement a life tenure system. Some believe the hype within the party asking Jiang to stay at his posts aims at putting pressure on Zhu.
Another theory goes that Jiang might be pointing his finger at his first trusted follower, Zeng Qinghong (´¿¼y¬õ). Jiang's staying in power actually affects Zeng the most, blocking him from walking out of Jiang's shadow and climbing to the top. Recently many of Zeng's activities can be viewed as an attempt to wrest power from Hu. But they might also make Jiang suspect that Zeng is hurrying to snatch power.
Although Jiang has made clear his intention to stay in power, there are still many variables affecting his dreams of becoming "emperor," given that he lacks the kind of charisma and authority that Mao and Deng had.
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