TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 Forms over the Northern Gulf of Mexico

National Hurricane Center ^ | August 4, 2002 | Miles Lawrence

[John H K]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT SUN AUG 04 2002

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOW SHOW A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...ENOUGH TO IDENTIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

SURFACE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE CENTER IS DISPLACED SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF THE CLOUD AND RADAR MID-LEVEL CENTER AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT LOCATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE DEPRESSION RUNS INTO A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.

INFRARED IMAGES SHOW THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO BE NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THERE APPEARS TO BE SHEARING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A FIVE KNOT INCREASE IN STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND. THE GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE WIND TO 35 KNOTS IN 12 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATION OVER LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A MODEST FIVE KNOT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 29.0N 88.5W 25 KTS

12HR VT 05/0600Z 30.0N 88.5W 30 KTS

24HR VT 05/1800Z 30.5N 90.0W 30 KTS...INLAND

36HR VT 06/0600Z 30.9N 91.7W 25 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING

48HR VT 06/1800Z 31.5N 93.5W 20 KTS...INLAND...REMNANT LOW

72HR VT 07/1800Z...INLAND...DISSIPATED

[John H K]

ALL NWS products are in "all caps" so don't bitch about it to me :-)

Doesn't have long to live, unless it starts heading west instead of north fast.

May not seem impressive but could cause serious flooding if it stalls near the coast.

There's a second area off the coast of South Carolina, also organizing, seems it could meander off the coast for several days.

[Tennessee_Bob]

So are you saying we should start loading C-5s with air droppable Prozac or Zoloft??