Posted on 10/15/2002 3:31:22 PM PDT by knighthawk
You have only to glance down from one of the aircraft that cross-cross Indonesia to get striking evidence of the country's essential problem.
Everywhere you look there are islands, ranging in size from rocks to small nations. Altogether there are 17,000 though no one seems absolutely sure. Scattered through the 6,000 inhabited ones are 365 ethnic groups, speaking scores of dialects.
Only strong government, it seems, could unite such a nation. That, or an exceptionally neighbourly attitude on the part of the inhabitants.
Indonesia enjoys neither. Its vast, unconnected acreage makes it extraordinarily difficult to govern. The diversity of its population, the fourth largest in the world, provides an endless source of disputes.
It suffers from weak central government, corrupt officials and a historically overmighty and scheming military. Its authority is under threat from separatist movements and religious fanaticism. Continuing economic crises ensure most of the population is in a state of permanent, sulky resentment.
The sadness is that Bali, with its three million easy-going, mostly Hindu, inhabitants, was -- until the weekend -- considered a haven of calm amid all the turmoil. Now that too has been sucked into the mess.
Bali was everything Islamic fundamentalists hate: tolerant, moderate and dedicated to the pleasures of the temporal world. Tourists who flock there are mostly Westerners and nominally Christian. Some, even in these nervous times, are American.
It was, in retrospect, an obvious target in a region that increasingly is fizzing with anti-Western hatred. If, as seems likely, Muslim fanatics are responsible for the bombings, the surprise will not be that the attack happened but that it took so long to be launched.
If there is one unifying factor in Indonesia, it is Islam. It is the biggest Muslim nation in the world with 87% of the 231 million population bowing to Mecca. Traditionally, social attitudes have been mild. Alcohol is permitted and women are not compelled to wear the veil. But Muslim extremists have turned their anger on communities from the country's 9% Christian population in recent years, particularly in Sulawesi and the neighbouring Moluccan islands.
Much of it has been the work of Laskar Jihad, many of whose members are veterans of the mujahedeen campaign against the Soviet army in Afghanistan and who belong to the same brotherhood from which al-Qaeda sprang.
The authorities' reaction to Islamic violence, and the threat that Indonesia might be in the process of becoming an al-Qaeda stronghold, has been hesitant and disappointing to the United States and neighbouring governments like Malaysia and Singapore who are cracking down on their own extremists.
An anti-terrorism bill giving stronger powers to the security forces has been awaiting passage through parliament for months. Until it becomes law, the authorities need hard proof before they can order arrests.
Reluctance to take firmer measures is in part a reflection of political realities. Megawati Sukarnoputri, the President and head of government, relies on the support of Islamic parties to sustain her government.
Megawati pledged support for the American action against Afghanistan and was rewarded with pledges of aid and loan guarantees from President Bush but has received warnings from Islamist politicians not to adopt an uncritical approach.
The fundamental weakness of the centre makes it risky to take difficult decisions. Indonesia's geographical integrity is under permanent threat from secessionists in places like Aceh and Irian Jaya, which have been fighting for independence for decades.
Like Pakistan's General Musharraf, Megawati has to go gently with the Islamic sensibilities of Indonesians, taking care not to antagonize them or drive them into the arms of radical parties.
The Bali bombs, whoever perpetrated them, will expose the government to the harsh scrutiny of Washington and its more robust allies in its war against terrorism, forcing it to take decisions it would much rather avoid.
Bubba Klinton
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.