GOP leading in top two races
Posted on 10/19/2002 10:51:53 AM PDT by MeekOneGOP
GOP leading in top two races
10/20/2002
AUSTIN - Republicans seeking the state's top offices hold a double-digit lead over their Democratic opponents, but undecided voters still could narrow the gap with less than three weeks until Election Day.
Gov. Rick Perry is favored by 50 percent of likely voters over Laredo businessman Tony Sanchez, backed by 35 percent in the latest poll by The Dallas Morning News.
In the Senate race, Republican John Cornyn leads former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk by 10 points.
The Democrats' best chance in the Nov. 5 election is former Comptroller John Sharp, locked in a dead heat with GOP Land Commissioner David Dewhurst.
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The attorney general's race also is close, with Republican Greg Abbott leading Democrat Kirk Watson by 6 percentage points, but more than a quarter of likely voters are undecided.
"It's a good time to be a Republican running for office in Texas," said pollster Micheline Blum.
"What's happened in Texas is that almost half of all likely voters think of themselves now as Republicans," she said. "So you can't win anymore with just the Democrats and a chunk of the independents."
Part of the Democratic political blueprint is to boost turnout among minority voters with a historic ticket. Mr. Kirk would be the first black U.S. senator from the South since Reconstruction, and Mr. Sanchez would be the state's first Hispanic governor.
Coupled with Mr. Sanchez's deep pockets - $54 million of his own money already spent - Democrat leaders hope to energize voters and get them to the polls in record numbers.
Ms. Blum and colleague Julie Weprin said their survey suggests little evidence that the so-called dream team ticket has kindled sufficient enthusiasm to offset its lagging support among whites.
"That's obviously a real blow to Sanchez," Ms. Blum said. "He needs to be taking the overwhelming number of Hispanic votes. Plus he needs the enthusiasm of people getting out in droves to help him do well. And we don't see either one."
She said Mr. Kirk is doing far better among blacks than Hispanics.
"The problem is there isn't a black-Hispanic coalition," she said. "He's not getting anywhere near as much of the Hispanic vote as one might have expected or that he needs to get."
With three weeks to go, the GOP leads could dwindle as voters who say they're still undecided - especially minorities who likely would flow to the Sanchez and Kirk camps - make a decision.
For example, in the governor's race, 21 percent of black voters and 18 percent of Hispanics are undecided. By comparison, only one in 10 white voters has not picked a candidate.
If the undecided voters cast their ballots overwhelmingly for Democrats, the margins would narrow for Mr. Sanchez and Mr. Kirk. But there still wouldn't be enough votes to win without a record-breaking turnout among minorities, the pollsters said.
"Sanchez needs all the undecideds, plus at this point he needs to take a vote away from Perry," Ms. Weprin said. "Perry has his 50 percent."
"Kirk is closer," said Ms. Blum.
The poll, conducted Sunday through Thursday by Blum & Weprin Associates Inc. of New York, interviewed 953 likely voters by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning the total for each candidate can vary that much in either direction.
The candidates offered predictably different views of the survey results, Republicans casting them as consistent with their own polling and Democrats dismissing them as flawed.
"This poll, like most public polls, is wrong," said Sanchez spokesman Mark Sanders. He said pollsters are underrepresenting minorities and voter enthusiasm.
"We show this a very, very, very close race," he said.
Ray Sullivan, a Perry spokesman, said the survey mirrors "virtually every independent public poll and is a strong endorsement of Gov. Perry's leadership record."
Cornyn spokesman Dave Beckwith said he's not surprised his candidate is ahead, and he predicted the lead would grow.
Kirk spokesman Justin Lonon said, "There will be a lot of polls between now and Election Day. This will be a close, competitive race, and we look forward to being successful on Election Day."
Mixed results
Among the poll's findings:
Voters are divided over which gubernatorial candidate is better equipped to rein in soaring insurance rates, a cornerstone of Mr. Sanchez's campaign. Of likely voters, 37 percent say Mr. Perry would do a better job, 33 percent pick Mr. Sanchez.
Although Mr. Cornyn, the state attorney general, has touted his support of President Bush, 51 percent of voters say it would not be a factor in their decision.
In a contest marked by millions of dollars of attack ads on television, voters say Mr. Sanchez is running a more negative campaign. According to the survey, 37 percent said Mr. Sanchez was the nastiest, 26 percent said Mr. Perry and 22 percent said they were equally to blame.
Mr. Cornyn and Mr. Kirk have maintained a relatively high positive rating among voters, but Mr. Perry's approval has fallen over the last seven months of the acrimonious campaign. About 57 percent give Mr. Perry a favorable rating compared with 36 percent for Mr. Sanchez.
"Sanchez has got a big problem," Ms. Blum said. "It's so partisan. While Democrats and independents think more favorably of Sanchez, he gets a 17 percent favorable among Republicans."
'Razor-thin' margins
The contest for lieutenant governor is so close either candidate would win, the pollsters said.
"It's razor-thin," Ms. Blum said. "Sharp does well among many more groups than the other Democrats running in any of the other contests."
Even among Republicans, Mr. Sharp gets a relatively high one-fifth of the vote, the survey shows.
"If Sanchez can pull out more Hispanic votes, it helps Sharp more than anybody," she said. "If there's a big Hispanic turnout, it might not put Sanchez over the top, but it could put Sharp over."
Kelly Fero, a Sharp spokesman, said the campaign's polling shows the Democrat with a lead of five to six points over Mr. Dewhurst.
But Nick Voinis of the Dewhurst campaign predicted victory, saying, "The only poll that really matters is on Nov. 5."
The race for attorney general between Mr. Abbott, a former Supreme Court justice, and Mr. Watson, a former Austin mayor, has the most undecided voters.
The pollster said that because of the lack of familiarity with these office-seekers, party identification is the key factor, with independents split and up for grabs.
Staff writer George Kuempel contributed to this report.
E-mail wslater@dallasnews.com
Early voting began today in many counties in Texas. Some may have chosen not to
begin today but all counties will be open on Monday for early voting..... Most county web sites
have a listing of early voting locations/times or you can call your Registar of Voters.
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Coupled with Mr. Sanchez's deep pockets - $54 million of his own money already spent - Democrat leaders hope to energize voters and get them to the polls in record numbers.
Energized? I think they mean in the Democratic tradition?.....
Please let me know if you want ON or OFF my Texas ping list!. . .don't be shy.
No, you don't HAVE to be a Texan to get on this list!
LOL ! Well, I hope they do !!
The weird stat here is that females prefer Perry over Sanchez more than males. A small but noticeable reverse gender gap? You don't see this too often in a straight Republican/Democrat matchup.
I must admit I'm not familiar with that race very much because I haven't seen much coverage on it. Sorry, FRiend.....
If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!
The Lt. Governor has a lot of control over the agenda of the Senate. So, even if the Republicans take control of both the House and the Senate, a Democrat could run interference.
I don't know why the race is so close. Sharp apparently has the advantage of name recognition.
Voted early this morning and had to stand in line to do it!
It is probably because Perry is so "handsome"... LOL
You are correct. The Lite Guv controls the State Senate agenda and is thus key to moving legislation. The governor here is among the weakest among states. The short of it is that Sharp is a seasoned politician with statewide recognition and is seen is a good ol' boy by conservative (esp. rural) Texans who recently shed their Rat affiliation. He's a small town white guy like so many of them and they look beyond the fact that his fiscal record is not conservative. Dewhurst isn't helping himself though. He comes across as the rich city boy and he's does not exude energy like Sharp. The third factor besides the candidates is that star former Houston Astros pitcher Nolan Ryan has a frequently aired "I'm a [Jeffords] Republican but John Sharp will get my vote because I grew up a town over from him and he seems nice enough" commercial. Since that aired, I've felt momentum towards Sharp.
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