Fifty-three percent of 2nd district voters surveyed said they likely would vote for Capito, according to the survey, which was released today. Posted on 10/28/2002 2:22:41 PM PST by Timesink
Incumbent has big lead
but many voters undecided
Karin Fischer <kfischer@dailymail.com>
Daily Mail Washington bureau
Monday October 28, 2002; 10:30 AM
WASHINGTON -- Incumbent Republican Shelley Moore Capito has opened a wide lead over Democratic challenger Jim Humphreys in the race for the 2nd Congressional District seat, with a significant number of voters still undecided, according to a new West Virginia Poll.
Fifty-three percent of 2nd district voters surveyed said they likely would vote for Capito, according to the survey, which was released today.
Thirty-two percent of those surveyed said they likely would vote for Humphreys, while 15 percent were undecided.
The wide margins fly in the face of conventional wisdom, which said the rematch between the two Charlestonians would be heated and close -- in fact, one of the most heated and close House races in the country.
Especially curious is the large number of undecided voters -- a surprising figure given that Capito and Humphreys essentially have been running for three years.
Humphreys' campaign quickly dismissed the poll results as "inaccurate, unreliable and useless."
The West Virginia Poll is conducted for the Charleston Daily Mail, WSAZ NewsChannel 3 and Metro News by RMS Research Inc. Telephone interviews were conducted Oct. 21-23 with a random sample of 400 registered, "likely" voters residing in West Virginia. The overall maximum sampling variation for this survey is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
For the question related to the Capito/Humphreys congressional race, additional interviews were conducted among registered voters in the 2nd Congressional District. There were 336 total interviews, yielding a maximum sampling variation of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
Capito's camp welcomed the poll results, although campaign manager Martin Baker said they would take nothing for granted. "We're just going to run harder," Baker said.
Capito's margin "shows voters are responding to Shelley's record of the last few years," Baker said.
Internal campaign polling shows the margin of difference between Capito and Humphreys to be in single digits, said Mike Plante of the Humphreys' campaign. "This poll is as accurate as a Shelley Moore Capito campaign commercial," he said. "In other words, not at all."
The 2nd district match-up always has been considered one of the most competitive in the country. Capito narrowly beat Humphreys in 2000 to snatch the open seat.
While she entered this year's contest with the benefits of incumbency, voter registration in the sprawling district distinctly favors Democrats.
The race has been both aggressive and negative, with the candidates, outside interest groups and the national parties pouring time and attention on the district.
Indeed, the White House announced late last week that President Bush would visit the state Thursday to stump for Capito and the Republican ticket. The presidential visit suggests even Republicans don't think a Capito lead should be taken for granted.
Writer Karin Fischer can be reached at (202) 662-8732.
For those who don't know, Jim Humphries is one of the more evil RATs on the face of the earth, a vicious trial lawyer who made many millions of dollars by attacking and extorting corporations over ginned-up asbestos charges. Both the current campaign and the 2000 campaign went negative because Humphries started it, blanketing the airwaves with beyond-the-pale attack ads against Capito that even the Charleston Gazette, a very openly liberal, RAT-loving newspaper, called nothing but distortions and outright lies. In other words, he's one of the last people the nation needs in the House. Luckily for us, he's losing big time, and is blowing around TEN MILLION DOLLARS of his own ill-gotten gains for the privilege of being told by the voters of West Virginia that he's a major-league Clymer. (He blew a similar amount in 2000, but then he came very close to winning. People have obviously wisened up.)
Also please notice the standard-issue RAT response whenever they're in deep deep trouble: They trot out the same hoary old lies about "internal polls" that show the race in single digits, but which we're not allowed to see, oh no; and then follows it up with a personal attack. But even here they reveal the truth via omission: that Humphries is losing. If that so-called "single digit" margin were pro-Humphries, they'd be screaming about it from the rooftops. But they're not. He's losing, and they know it.)
Hopefully, this is a bellwether for races across the country on November 5.
Sidenote: The reporter is being either naive or misleading with the sentence about the 2nd District being heavily Democratic. It definitely is (as are all the other Districts in West Virginia), but the loyalty is only surface-level. This is a state where most people are registered RATS by default; their parents were Democrats, as were their parents, etc, so they sign up the same way. But people here really only care about local matters, and whoever they think will be best will win, regardless of party affiliation. The governorship routinely switches back and forth, we voted for Bush and Reagan, etc.
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WV is very heavily DemocRatic, but not heavily *liberal*. Bush won both the First and Second Congressional Districts in 2000, getting a slightly larger majority in the First CD (northern WV). Only the Third CD (Southern WV) is heavily populated by dyed-in-the-wool, hard-core, FDR-worshipping, Republican-hating liberal Rats. And even they are not "liberal" in precisely the same sense as, say, Teddy K. or Hitlery.
Bush's win in 2000 was only the fourth time since FDR that a Republican took WV's electoral votes (1956, 1972, 1984, 2000). The last Republican to be elected to the U.S. Senate from West Virginia was Chapman Revercomb in 1956, a trend which unfortunately is highly unlikely to change (regardless of a Presidential visit on behalf of Jay Wolfe).
DWG
That is not quite true. West Virgina is a very weird state. I would submit to you that WV is probably one of the most socially conservative states in the nation. Very Pro-Life, Pro-Gun, and Anti-Homosexual.
HOWEVER it is also very fiscally Liberal, home of pork king KKK-Byrd.
West Virgina has a lot of Union miners who are told "vote RAT, Vote RAT, VOTE RAT!!!" "Democrats is for da workin man." And other slogans.
West Virgina has been reliably Democrat. In fact it is so reliably democrat that the RATS take it for granted. West Virginia voted Democrat for President in 1960, 1964, 1968, 1976, 1980, 1988, 1992, and 1996. Only in the Republican LANDSLIDES of 1972 (Where nixon carried every state except MA.) and 1980 (Were Reagan carried every state except MN.) Did West Virgina go along for the ride.
Then came 2000. Gore was taking West Virgina as a sure win. IN fact he didn't really campaign hard there at all, but Bush and the NRA pushed the Gun issue, (One of the most important in West Virgina) and along with the social issues of abortion and homosexuals, 25% of the WV Democratic base switched to vote Bush.
West Virgina is slowly starting to see the light that most of the other conservative southern states have seen by now. Most "Southern Democrats" are beginning to see how liberal the democrats have become, and that the Republicans are not the "Yankee" party as in after the Civil War.
Actually Bush's win in 2000 in WV was the first time since the 20's that WV voted for a non-incumbant Republican Presidential candidate.
I know nit picky, but facts are facts and the politcal nuances have to be pointed out.
West Virgina falls in the somewhat of the Same Category as Most of Pennsylvania (Excluding Philadelphia).
Most of Pennsylvania is very Socially Conservative with a large Catholic Population. But it is also heavy Union country.
The People tend to be Pro-Life, Pro-Gun and Anti-Homosexual, but fall for the old "Democrats is for da workin man." line all the time.
Philadelphia tends to be NYC style socially liberal, but the rest of the state is very Conservative.
Pennsylvania unlike West Virgina though will vote Democrat for President, and Republican in most everything else. Both U.S. Senators from PA are Republican, The Majority of the U.S. Congressional Deligation is Republican, and many of the democrats on that delegation are very pro-life and pro-gun (IE: John Murtha) the State Senate and State House are Republican, and the Majority of state offices are Republican.
What amazes me though is that Pennsylvania will vote for idiots like Gore (this was due in large part to vote fraud in philadelphia), yet also vote for Conservatives like Rick Santorum.
If Republicans would quit running the fiscally conservative message in states like Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and push Guns, Abortion, and Homosexuality. We could rip these states out of RAT Control for a long time.
For some reason republicans like to run on fiscally conservative messages, and they stray away from social conservativism for fear of being painted as right-winged extremists.
Problem is the Media is going to do it anyway, so why not get the social conservative issues on the forefront in these states where the message would do so well.
Indeed, the White House announced late last week that President Bush would visit the state Thursday to stump for Capito and the Republican ticket. The presidential visit suggests even Republicans don't think a Capito lead should be taken for granted.
There's a thread here re: President Bush's stop on Thursday after 5:30 p.m. Halloween night.
They sure picked the right time to make that decision!
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