[Nonstatist]

I'm not clear as to what event(s) could have caused the spike in the Dem's odds

Consumer confidence has crashed; down to about .7 (1985 =1.0). ..I'm a bit worried myself, check out realpolitics.com; theyre worried too.

[TomT in NJ]

I'm a bit worried too. But FWIW, October was the best month for the Dow 30 since January of 1987. Hopefully that bounce-back, the decent 3rd quarter GDP and this morning's unemployment rate will allay our fears.