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Runoff hinges on who prods backers to polls the best
Both falter in quest to win over key blocs
By Bruce Alpert
Washington bureau/The Times-Picayune
WASHINGTON -- When it comes to figuring out who turns out to vote and why, Curtis Gans is arguably the nation's top expert.
But Gans, who has been analyzing elections for the nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate for the past 20 years, admits he is stumped by Saturday's U.S. Senate runoff in Louisiana. He doesn't have a clue how many people will show up or whether voters favoring Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu or Republican challenger Suzanne Haik Terrell will be more motivated.
In addition to the usual challenges of trying to anticipate the will of the electorate, several special factors in this election could make determining turnout more unpredictable, though nobody knows how much more.
On the one hand, the race won't decide which party controls the Senate because Republicans already secured the majority by taking seats that had been held by Democrats in Minnesota, Georgia and Missouri on Nov. 5. That could make voters decide that a trip to the polls is less urgent than it might have been had the Louisiana race been the deciding factor. Except for a runoff in the state's 5th Congressional District, two special elections for state legislative slots and one seat on the Opelousas Board of Aldermen, the Senate race is the only election most voters will see on their ballots.
Add to that the timing of the race, which coincides with what is traditionally a big Christmas shopping day, the final weekend for duck hunting in some parts of the state and, in others, the first weekend hunters can use dogs to hunt deer.
With both sides predicting a close election, it's no surprise that political pundits have been on a quest to understand the political registrations and ideological leanings of outdoors enthusiasts. Republicans figure those hunters are mostly their constituents and have launched a campaign to encourage them to vote absentee.
Few election experts are willing to make a solid prediction beyond saying that the candidate who does the best job getting her core supporters to the polls will win.
And both candidates have had some trouble energizing the voters who typically are their most solid backers. Landrieu has struggled to kindle excitement among black voters, generally the most loyal of Democratic voters. And Terrell has had problems generating enthusiasm among abortion opponents who tend to vote Republican.
The last time a late Senate runoff took place was 10 years ago in Georgia, when Paul Coverdell, a Republican, beat Democratic incumbent Wyche Fowler by 15,000 votes. Turnout for the late November runoff dropped 50 percent from the general election three weeks earlier.
Although Secretary of State Fox McKeithen is predicting a 40 percent to 45 percent turnout for the Landrieu-Terrell runoff, about the same as the primary, no one can pinpoint how that vote will be divvied up.
Are black Democrats more likely to stay home than anti-abortion Republicans?
"We just don't know," Gans said.
Both candidates, backed by their national party organizations and helped by out-of-state volunteers who no longer have local races to occupy their time, are vowing an all-out effort to get their voters to the polls. Party activists in Alabama, Mississippi and other states are e-mailing their usual cadre of volunteers, asking whether they would consider spending a few days in Louisiana this week to help get out the vote.
Rallying abortion foes
John Hogue, head of the Louisiana Christian Coalition who backed state Rep. Tony Perkins, R-Pride, in the Nov. 5 primary, said Terrell and the Republicans need to do a lot of work to get a big vote from anti-abortion advocates. Some of them have questioned Terrell's commitment to the anti-abortion movement, although the candidate says that as a practicing Catholic, she has always strongly believed that abortion should be outlawed, except in cases of rape, incest or to protect the life of the mother.
Hogue said that some in the anti-abortion community have been surprised that Landrieu, who supports abortion rights, has made a pitch for their votes. Landrieu has sent one of her top aides, Rich Masters, to point to her support for a ban on late-term abortions and her decision to sign up as the only Democratic sponsor of legislation banning human cloning.
"But clearly, Terrell has made the more concerted effort to appeal to the religious evangelical community," Hogue said. But whether they come out to vote for her in large numbers, he said, could hinge on whether she gets local evangelical leaders throughout the state to help boost voter turnout.
So far, it's not clear that she is making that effort, he said. But Terrell has aggressively pursued anti-abortion votes, promising to support a constitutional amendment banning abortions, even if it doesn't include the exceptions she supports.
Courting black voters
Landrieu has been working to shore up support among black people, some of whom have accused her of ignoring them or moving too far to the right in her Senate votes.
She won the endorsement, although somewhat tepid, of her longtime adversary, state Sen. Cleo Fields, D-Baton Rouge, which could help mobilize black voters in the state capital area. But Landrieu hasn't won over two other black state senators, Greg Tarver of Shreveport and Donald Cravins of Lafayette, who continue to complain that she hasn't reached out to them during her six-year Senate term after her narrow victory in 1996.
Still, the Rev. Zebadee Bridges, pastor of the Asia Baptist Church in New Orleans, said Landrieu has succeeded in attracting some black voters by moving away from her primary campaign in which she emphasized her support for President Bush on taxes and homeland security. Her runoff campaign emphasizes that Landrieu will support Bush "when he's right for Louisiana" but that she won't be a rubber stamp for policies that hurt Louisiana.
"I think right now she's in a position to get a bigger turnout among African-Americans than she did Nov. 5," Bridges said.
Landrieu has also reached out to a constituency that always supports Sen. John Breaux, D-La., but hasn't been a reliable source of support for her campaigns: conservative Democrats. Many support gun-owner rights, and recently Landrieu co-sponsored a bill that would exempt gun manufacturers from liability when their products are used to kill or injure others.
Uniting a divided state GOP
Terrell is running on the theme that she'll be in a better position to help Louisiana as a member of the Republican majority than Landrieu would in the minority, even if Landrieu retains her seat on the Senate Appropriations Committee.
In the end, it might come down to whether supporters of Rep. John Cooksey, R-Monroe, who finished third in the primary, turn out for Terrell or stay home. Cooksey endorsed Terrell, but he's delivered post-primary comments critical of what he termed the elections commissioner's overly negative campaign style during the primary.
Some of his hometown supporters in Monroe aren't ready to embrace Terrell.
"I will not vote in the Senate race on Dec. 7," said Gladys Madden, 76, a Republican who attends the same United Methodist church as Cooksey. "She (Terrell) said she wouldn't run if Cooksey was in the Senate race. And after all he did for her when she ran for elections commissioner, I thought she owed him much more than to run against him."
Madden said she expects others will do what she plans: vote in the 5th Congressional District election for Republican Lee Fletcher, who is running against Democrat Rodney Alexander, and leave the Senate ballot blank.
Terrell's campaign spokesman said Terrell never promised not to run and that the candidate is proud of Cooksey's support and expects to get the votes of the vast majority of his supporters.
Chuck Castell, a retired paper company sales manager in Monroe, said he's decided to follow Cooksey's advice and support Terrell.
"I preferred Cooksey and I'm not crazy about Terrell, but I think one more vote for the Republicans in the Senate would help," Castell said.
Negativity may take toll
Gans, the election turnout expert, said both candidates have an opportunity during the final week of the campaign to encourage their base to vote on Saturday. President Bush makes appearances Tuesday for Terrell in Shreveport and in New Orleans, and he has already demonstrated his political influence by defying historic trends to help his party gain seats in the House and Senate two years after winning the presidency.
On the other hand, Gans said, Bush's appearance might encourage more Democrats to vote, at least those who don't want to give the president and his policies a free pass in Congress.
Both Republicans and Democrats say they will be aggressive in turning out their vote. The Republicans say they will bring back the 72-hour plan they successfully implemented for the Nov. 5 congressional elections, making phone calls to likely supporters and following up to ensure that they vote. Among the plans being contemplated are recorded phone calls from Bush urging people to vote for Terrell.
Democrats promise a similar effort, with possible recorded calls from former President Clinton, who remains popular and influential with black voters.
The problem, Gans said, is that the campaign has turned increasingly negative, with each side accusing the other of unfair attacks and distortions of the record.
"Negative campaigns generally depress turnout," Gans said. "And while both sides can be aggressive about calling up and telling people to go to the polls, people can still say no. Sometimes, they can hang up the phone. All this can impact the turnout that both candidates need to win."
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Bruce Alpert can be reached at bruce.alpert@newhouse.com or (202) 383-7861.
