Posted on 01/05/2003 7:36:49 PM PST by NormsRevenge
Edited on 04/13/2004 3:30:07 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
Japan doesn't play those games. If there is something going on in North Korea, there is no concievable way they would try and stop us.
Why would they help us? It seems to me that a loss of South Korea has little effect and they wouldn't risk nuclear weapons exploding on their territory again.
They would help us (a) because South Korea and Japan have huge trade and investment ties, and have been on friendly terms for a very long time, and (b) If Kim Jong Il can control South Korea, then Japan is next, and everyone over there knows it. Japan has been thus far powerless to prevent the kidnapping of its citizens, or to stop North Korea in any way, and they want this problem to be resolved before they have to rearm and do it themselves. If the do rearm, it changes the entire dynamic of the Far East, and not for the better.
Many have argued that his last chance has long past, and as far as taking South Korea, they're right. He has a slim chance of taking Seoul and stopping, which would only have a prayer while we're knee deep in Baghdad.
It's hard to read what their game plan is. They won't have another shot at this, so on one hand, if Iraq passes, and nothing happens, good for us. North Korea will get top billing in the War on Evil from Iraq on out.
This is a good point, geography wise, but I think their question is more along the line of 'who is in harm's way'. Camp Red Cloud, home of 2 ID for instance is north of Seoul and Uijongbu, is right in the way of the NKPA, as are Camp Essayons, Stanley, and the other scattered posts, and would recieve lavish artillery attention. Many of the U.S. troops are scattered around, in positions well known to the NKs, and would be targeted above all else.
Well, when I was there last (1982) there were indeed LOTS of Americans- although the exact number who were counted as "military dependents" was in dispute, since quite a few enlissted troops had Korean wives and children, or brought their families from the States WITHOUT official permission.
There were a great many other Americans, as well- DOD Civilians (not just a few teachers and nurses, but several thousand folks who worked in support jobs), Embassy people, American business people, quite a large military and Foreign Service retiree community, and so on.
I don't have a good number for all of these various folks, but I would be very surprised if they, in the aggregate, did not outnumber the actual military personnel stationed in South Korea.
They would be ideal hostages- remember Iran???
There are plans to "evacuate" these noncombatant Americans, but at least when I was there the plans were woefully inadequate. Perhaps they are much better now- but I doubt it.
How've you been Ranger? It's been a while.
I don't believe though that this "crisis" will become a shooting war. And, I am not one of those who fears China in any scenario. The Chinese have much more to lose than in 1950, and no Uncle Joe around. Without the support of the Chinese, who in turn had Stalin's support, there would have been no KW1.
The North Korean leaders remind me of chimps on a National Geographic special. There was one who found an empty steel can and dominated the group for about a week by rolling it and throwing it around the hill. The noise gave him power until another chimp tried it and they found that it made the same noise no matter who threw it around. I know that this is simplistic in the extreme. I just hope that it proves true as an anology.
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