High cost of a war between Koreas

SJ Mercury News ^ | 1/4/06 | Michael Dorgan

[NormsRevenge]

PANMUNJOM, Korea - If diplomacy fails, this is where another Korean war would begin.

Stretched across the waist of the Korean Peninsula, the demilitarized zone is a 151-mile-long belt bristling with barbed wire, mine fields, tank barriers and artillery bunkers that has divided North from South since the 1950-53 Korean War. It is one of the most fortified frontiers on earth.

[NormsRevenge]

Yesterday's news today and hopefully not tomorrow 8-|

[Travis McGee]

What is the possibility that North Korea might actually believe it could pull off a "Seoul Snatch" operation, a blitzkrieg attack directly into Seoul to begin the greatest hostage crisis of all time?

I'm not asking "could they pull it off", just, "could they think it could work and try it?"

[NormsRevenge]

Go a step further... Could this type of snatch in conjunction with a coordinated move by China to retake Taiwan/Formosa succeed?

Yes and No.

They could take their targets but the fallout from the retaliation would doom us to a nuclear winter scenario. Unfortunately, the nuke lamp is lit, whether we like to admit it or not.

That nukes have not been used by any sovereign, legitimate or otherwise, or a rogue nation is a testament to the MAD doctrine and its efficacy in getting us to this point in our global setting.

Unfortunately, we now truly have mad leaders of nations that are not really too concerned about the ramifications of nuke useage in our atmosphere.

[Travis McGee]

It's going to be an interesting year! It seems that MAD is dead, or nearly so, with the 2nd and 3rd tier players getting them. China may be looking closely at Taiwan, evaluating the risk of a nuclear outcome... it may be judged too risky in this year of Iraq and Korea. What a year it's going to be!

[RANGERAIRBORNE]

I believe that this projected civilian casualty figure ("a million people in the first few days") is realy a lowball estimate. The few cities of South Korea are exttremely densely populated, and Seuol, especially, is tremendously vulnerable once the Han river bridges are knocked out (an objective likely to be accomplished within the first 24 hours of war). The 38,000 American troops (and their dependents) would be little more than hostages- those who survived.

When they refer to the U.S. Forces, Korea as a "tripwire", that phrase has a meaning- it means that the death or capture of thousands of Americans is INTENDED by us to reassure everyone involved that we WILL stay and fight- not watch from the sidelines.

Too bad for the folks that are there, though.

Unfortunately, I think there is no option other than immediate and widespread nuclear retaliation, essentially destroying North Korea, probably most of South Korea North of Seoul (and probably a good part of Manchuria- not to mention fall-out on Japan and South Korea itself).

So much for the Clinton-era fantasies of a peaceful world and huge military cutbacks...

[Republic of Texas]

Could they concieve it? Sure. They already did it once. Could they pull it off? Yes again.

[RightWhale]

Could this type of snatch in conjunction with a coordinated move by China to retake Taiwan/Formosa succeed?

China should have next to zero interest in trying to take Taiwan by force. It might be possible to pull off such an invasion, but China would be essentially out of action in the world for a long time thereafter. Their economic miracle would be over. OVER.

[Torie]

I can't imagine all this occur without some warning. With that warning, I suspect N. Korea would be dissuaded. The place would be destroyed, and there would be regime change. It won't happen.

[Mike Darancette]

Go a step further... Could this type of snatch in conjunction with a coordinated move by China to retake Taiwan/Formosa succeed?

---

I guess it could work but does China want to be a pariah nation for 50 years sitting accross the Sea from a nuclear Japan?

[Travis McGee]

What a year 2003 is gonna be!

"All the way and then some Sgt. Airborne!"

[Travis McGee]

I think a Seoul Snatch is the most likely offensive scenario.

Grab Seoul, use it as a massive PX and fuel depot, suck it dry, and sue for reunification talks on (completely insane) DPRK terms.

[Forgiven_Sinner]

Huh. I felt the million estimate was wildly inflated. I have a couple of questions:
1. Could the NK army really achieve a total tactical surprise?
2. What sort of air forces do we have in the area? Do we have a squadron of B-1's or B-2's at hand? I know they could reach NK from Virginia, if necessary, but what else?
3. What sort of armor do we have in the area?

My assumption (which may be wrong) was that we have sufficient air forces close by so that we could wipe out any invading army within 24 hours. Ditto the 300 artillary positions threatening Seoul. Ground forces do not really hold up under B-52 long stick bombardment. I assume we have the JDAMs and the GPS gear on the peninsula. I also assume we have or can target their nuclear facilities and destroy them via submarine missiles within 24 hours.

Are my assumptions wrong?

[Steel Wolf]

I'm not asking "could they pull it off", just, "could they think it could work and try it?"

The command structure of the NKA would like to consider themselves aware of the situation on the peninsula. The reality is that their opinions, information, and official communications are skewed badly, due to being an oppressive Stalinist heirarchy. Giving information without tailoring it to the receiver can be deadly. If Kim Jong Il gets an assessment of a certain course of action, for example if he asks about the feasability of a course of action, the smart underling will make it as accurate and biased (to what Kim wants to hear) as possible.

Stalin himself is a great study in this, replacing commanders, advisors, and simple messengers by the truckload when he was told 'the wrong answer'. There is no indication that the Korean People's Army runs under any differing model than the Soviet Red Army of the 40's.

[jwalsh07]

``In the aftermath of World War II, America's global interventionist foreign policy appeared to have a purpose: containment of the hegemonic threat posed by the Soviet Union and its satellites,'' said a recent position paper of the Washington-based Cato Institute. ``Today, however, there is nothing left to contain. America's enemies are a handful of dismal, impoverished dictatorships.''

Today we have a different and perhaps even more dangerous role to fulfill in foreign policy.

The number one problem facing America today is the ability of rogue nations and whackjobs to deliver WMD's onto American soil.

North Korea is currently preeminent among whackjobs in the ability to do that with missiles rather than dirty suitcase crap.

That is the reason Bush has given the go ahead for missile defense in Alaska even with many questions remaining as to its ability to shoot down incoming.

North Korea is currently incapable of providing food for more than two thirds of it's citizens. If somebody doesn't belly up to the bar, like Russia and/or China, Kim Il Jong may just say the hell with it and do the deed.

I would guess at that point we would have no choice but to demonstrate to the world once again that we will do what it takes to win with minimal loss of life on our side.

[Thud]

What if Canada and Mexico both invade the U.S.?

Press what-ifs are stupid as well as silly. They'd have us believe that the battle-hardened Iraqi hordes drove us into the sea in 1991, and that the Arabs really destroyed Israel in 1947, 1956, 1967 and 1973.

[RANGERAIRBORNE]

Actually, there would be almost NO warning. The troops, artillery, tanks, ammunition and supplies for the first several days of any new N. Korean attack are in place, and an attack could probably be launched while we were still examining our satelllite images to try to figure out what was going on.

I am not some "Think Tank" armchair intellectual- I was a soldier there for several years (in the 60's and 70's)- in the mud, lying in frozen ambush positions all night, and losing a few friends (mostly to mines).

The N. Korean government, such as it is, is the most paranoid and unpredictable on Earth- and the people are as ignorant of the outside world as some lost tribe in the Amazon Basin.

Your optimism is nice- but I see no real basis for it, other than wishful thinking.

Our real hope is that China and Russia will step in and stop this before it goes a step too far- but how close to the edge are they willing to let it go? They want us OUT of S. Korea, and they could easily miscalculate and let it get out of hand.

North Korea with nuclear weapons is like having Charles Manson in command of a nuclear- armed submarine. It MIGHT work out OK, but it would not be a GOOD THING!

[Thud]

No and No.

[Travis McGee]

The same information flow applies to Saddam. Honest advisors are shot.

[Steel Wolf]

Unfortunately, I think there is no option other than immediate and widespread nuclear retaliation, essentially destroying North Korea, probably most of South Korea North of Seoul (and probably a good part of Manchuria- not to mention fall-out on Japan and South Korea itself).

I've known many people who worked on or about the DMZ that have said much the same. They've essentially said that were we to drop nuclear weapons on the three main avenues of approach for their three assault corps, they'd be unable to advance except as scattered infantry over the hills.

South Korea, on the other hand, is adamantly opposed to using nuclear weapons. (Whether or not this opinion would hold after the first few days is subject to question). We have to be ready to fight the war conventionally, in the event that the political word is 'suck it up, guys, and push north' due to fear of fallout (nuclear and political.)

[Travis McGee]

North Korea with nuclear weapons is like having Charles Manson in command of a nuclear- armed submarine.

True, and very very scary.