Posted on 01/05/2003 7:36:49 PM PST by NormsRevenge
Edited on 04/13/2004 3:30:07 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
About the same tactical surprise that a thug holding a loaded gun with a hair-trigger at your temple could achieve. Locked and loaded, armed and ready, they are that close to downtown Seoul.
We have F-16s at Osan and Kunsan; F-15s and more F-16s in Japan including Okinawa. The Navy and Marines have F-14s, F-18s, and intruders in the area. For a really big punch we have B-52s at Guam.
Don't bet on it. Thanks to loose lips from our good friends, the South Koreans, the North has been able to minimize their visible preparations to an amount of time that is probably without equal. Mobilization requires certain tasks to be performed, especially in a large combined arms assault, but they've frontloaded most of it.
And yes, while we do watch, the North Koreans will periodically mobilize in a way that indistinguishable from an attack, save the firing. Sometimes clumsy, sometimes very subtle, just to keep us off guard. I'm sure they hope that crying wolf long enough will deafen the right ears. As far as the South Koreans are concerned, I'd have to say they are right.
Yes, those B-52 "ARC LIGHT" missions won THAT war for us, didn't they? Strange how I managed to forget that... Your assumptions are correct, insofar as we will "win" any war with N. Korea (even if China should jump in- unlikely). But the death toll will be so high that you will think it's a misprint when you see it in your paper.
You might want to review the histroy of the Korean War, especially from 25 June 1950 until MacArthur managed to land at Inchon- we were routed- entire units broke and ran South, and Seoul was practically destroyed almost immediately. That was WITHOUT nuclear or chemical weapons.
The air power we have is unparalleled, but to counter this the North has placed literaly hundreds of sabotures in the South, their famed 'special forces' brigades are ready to infiltrate deep and quickly, and their missile attacks will target our airbases.
Not many would survive. Some 14,000 tubes of North Korean artillery are laid on their priority targets right now, many of which are undoubtedly American positions.
If you can imagine a million rounds of artillery landing in the space of about an hour, you can picture the amount of devastation.
That's right. ROK and US forces were pushed hard south until they held only a pocket that included the port city of Pusan. MacArthur backdoored the North Koreans by coming in behind them at Inchon, west of Seoul.
When the US retreat was at its most earnest, serious thought was given to employing tactical nukes against North Korean forces massed in pockets between some of the interior southern mountains of Korea.
Believe it.
Until Inchon, we were fighting a losing battle. Then when the Chinese stepped in, the game was destined to be lost.
Land wars in Asia usually end that way when Chinese armies get involved.
I have witnessed a "Time on Target" exercise involving sixteen battalions of Artillery. I was impressed, and I don't impress easily.
I cannot even IMAGINE what a million artillery rounds fired in the space of few hours would do. But I do know that I wouldn't want to be under them.
A point that can only be truly appreciated by someone who has been to our bases in South Korea. Especially at Osan, dense thickets of houses and shacks are built up right to the fence. It is an open secret that these places are or will be infested with North Korean sappers and saboteurs from the first shot on.
Perimeter and base security cannot be a pleasant or easy job in Korea.
If North Korea invades, all bets are off - there simply isn't the manpower anywhere near to stop them before Seoul. Those 35,000 or so US troops would be little more than speed bumps to the million man army (with millions more in reserves) which is on the border right now.
Right now the entire United States can muster about 12 ground combat divisions - tops. We've decimated our military so greatly that even winning a second Korean War is doubtful.
Believe it. It's policy. Read RANGERAIRBORNE's post about the tripwire effect. What varies, depending on the time of year, and their level of mobilization (which they bump up and down to try and get our goat), is the amount of time we'd have to notify our units to prepare to receive fire.
It is theoretically possible for them to hit us with absolutely no warning, but the 'sucker punch' option would have to sacrifice their own preparations, and they'd not be in a position to exploit our shock. What is more likely is that during one of their many train ups, they'd pass the go code and move South, hoping to catch us off guard.
Moral: Smoking can be dangerous to your health!
Another good point. The North Korean military has 1.2 million active duty, with nearly a million on the DMZ, but that's just their invasion force.
As reinforcements, they have several organizations. The Reserves are a full 800,000, and can be used as maneuver units. The Worker-Peasant Red Guard militia at around 3.8 million total manpower, but they are more restricted to their local area. Also, the Red Youth Guards have roughly a million under arms, with reasonalby good basic infantry skills. Sprinkle on another 120,000 or so security personnel, and you have a whole lotta people under arms.
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