Manicougan crater
Posted on 02/05/2003 8:23:18 AM PST by cogitator
Imagine this scenario:
A spacecraft has prior knowledge of an impending catastrophe. However, due to circumstances of time and budget, nothing can be done about the catastrophe. The inhabitants of the spacecraft know they are doomed, and time is running out. All they can hope for is luck; a fortuitous circumstance in which the damage is less than expected and somehow they manage to survive.
Now imagine that the spacecraft is Earth, its inhabitants are the human population and all of the living things upon it, and the impending catastrophe is an oncoming asteroid.
[From what we know now, the astronauts on the Space Shuttle Columbia did not have prior knowledge of impending catastrophe, and neither did NASA. But as we have learned, even if they had possessed such knowledge, their potentional courses of action were very limited. They did not have an escape plan; they may have tried to alter the trajectory of reentry, but even that was fraught with danger and uncertainty.]
NASA needs an overriding mission; it has lacked one ever since the first steps were taken on the moon over 30 years ago. What better mission that the defense of Earth and all that lives upon it?
Fast-forward a decade. An asteroid is discovered in an orbit that has a very high probability of hitting the Earth. The potential date of impact is 1,345 days away. Would the inhabitants of Earth, at that moment, have a better chance of escaping the fate of the dinosaurs than the astronauts of Columbia had to save their lives -- even if they had known about the damage to their spacecraft?
Probably not. Imagine hearing that escape plans from asteroid impactors had been examined and then rejected for being too costly. Imagine hearing that the possibilities for diverting the asteroid were fraught with danger and likely to fail.
How would you feel?
There is now a chance to provide NASA with a mission; a mission of vital importance to all of mankind. That mission is Spaceguard, to borrow the name coined by Arthur C. Clarke (see below). It is a mission that could unite all of mankind. It is a mission that could make the International Space Station a vital testing ground for extended missions in space. It is a mission that would provide impetus to the development of the next-generation space vehicles that are vitally needed now, as the Space Shuttles age and become even more vulnerable to accident.
The mission: to create an effective defense against the possibility of a major impact disaster on Earth. Some may ask, what if the possibility is very low? The possibility of disaster on the Space Shuttle was also considered low. Is the alternative acceptable?
And there would be benefits other than the creation of an impact defense system. In one year, NASA will launch Deep Impact, a mission that will rendesvous with a comet and fire a "smart impactor" directly into its heart. The return to science will be dramatically increased knowledge of the structure and composition of a comet. And there will also be a little-noted return: we will learn more about how, possibly, we could destroy or divert a comet or asteroid on a collision course with Earth.
What else? It has been suggested that out among the asteroids there are likely nuggets laden with vital mineral resources. Though it may be far in the future, Earth's mines will eventually be exhausted. Spaceguard could demonstrate the technology required to capture a high-metal-content asteroid and bring it to a Lagrange point where it could be mined and the metals extracted; perhaps to be used to build a base on the Moon. Why put Earth's precious metals into orbit if a much larger supply of them is already there? Or, capture a comet and use its water (likely the most necessary substance required for extended sojourns in space) for the maintenance of a manned base on the Moon.
Yes, that last paragraph is far-fetched. But take a stroll around the Barringer Crater in Arizona one day. Or even better, examine this image of the Manicougan impact structure in Canada:
Manicougan crater
Earth has been hit before, and recently: the Tunguska impact in Siberia was in 1908. Earth will be hit again. Why not create a truly heroic effort to preserve the Earth for many future generations to come?
Spaceguard - there is no better time than now. While we keep looking, let us also prepare to act.
-------- Supporting information:
Bigger Telescopes Seek Killer Asteroids
Excerpt: "In his 1973 novel Rendezvous with Rama, Arthur C. Clarke describes a fictitious asteroid impact in Europe in 2077. This event forces Earthlings to create a "Spaceguard" system to detect and deflect Earth-threatening asteroids and comets. So far, most scientists and politicians, not to mention the public, have embraced such an approach.
[Comment: the fictitious impact described in the novel happened to wipe out the city of Venice.]
NASA Should Lead More Focused Program to Reduce Threat from Hazardous Asteroids
Press release dated 02/04/2003
NASA should be assigned to lead a new research program to better determine the population and physical diversity of near-Earth objects that may collide with our planet, down to a size of 200 meters, according to the final report of a workshop on the scientific requirements for the mitigation of hazardous comets and asteroids.
The workshop’s report also recommends that the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) work to more rapidly communicate surveillance data on natural airbursts of smaller rocky bodies, and it concludes that governmental policy makers must "formulate a chain of responsibility" to be better prepared in the event that a threat to Earth becomes known.
“As our discussions proceeded, it became clear that the prime impediment to further advances in this field is the lack of assigned responsibility to any national or international governmental organization,” said planetary scientist Michael Belton, organizer of the September 2002 workshop. “Since it is part of NASA’s newly stated mission to ‘understand and protect our home planet,’ it seems obvious that this responsibility should reside in NASA.”
Belton presented the findings of the workshop today in Washington, DC, to officials at NASA, the National Science Foundation, and the Office of Management and Budget, and the report was delivered to the U.S. Congress.
About 2,225 near-Earth objects (NEOs) have been detected, primarily by ground-based optical searches, in the size range between 10 meters and 30 kilometers, out of a total estimated population of about one million; some information about the physical size and composition of these NEOs is available for only 300 objects.
The total number of objects a kilometer in diameter or larger, a size that could cause global catastrophe upon Earth impact, is now estimated to range between 900 and 1,230. The NASA-led Spaceguard Survey has a congressional mandate to detect 90% of these kilometer-sized objects by 2008, and it is making “excellent progress” on this goal, the report says.
However, a full survey of objects that could cause significant damage on Earth should reach down to NEOs at least as small as 200 meters, the report says, which should be within the capability of proposed ground-based facilities such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope and the PanStarrs telescope system. Ground-based radar systems will remain a “critical contributor” to obtaining the most accurate possible data on the orbits of many hazardous objects, the report says.
The workshop report discusses a preliminary roadmap based on five themes: more complete and accurate surveys of the orbits of potentially hazardous objects; improved public education about the risk; characterizing the physical properties of a range of asteroids and comets; more extensive laboratory research; and initial physical experiments toward a realistic plan to intercept and divert a future incoming object.
In order to keep maximum annual expenses on the order of a typical spacecraft mission (approximately $300 million), the report estimates that it would take about 25 years to accomplish this roadmap.
The Final Report of the NASA Workshop on Scientific Requirements for Mitigation of Hazardous Comets and Asteroids, held in Arlington, VA, from September 3-6, 2002, is available on the Internet at:
http://www.noao.edu/meetings/mitigation/report.html
The workshop was attended by 77 scientists from the United States, Europe and Japan. It was co-sponsored by Ball Aerospace, Science Applications International Corp., Lockheed Martin Corp., the National Optical Astronomy Observatory and the University of Maryland.
Cheaper.
I think I'd be sweating if I found out an asteroid was going to hit the Earth. Can I use this on my hands?
Thanks, I appreciate it.
Blessèd assurance, Jesus is mine!
O what a foretaste of glory divine!
Heir of salvation, purchase of God,
Born of His Spirit, washed in His blood.
Refrain
Perfect submission, perfect delight,
Visions of rapture now burst on my sight;
Angels descending bring from above
Echoes of mercy, whispers of love.
Refrain
Perfect submission, all is at rest
I in my Savior am happy and blest,
Watching and waiting, looking above,
Filled with His goodness, lost in His love.
Refrain
Yeah we know this is a serious threat because it happens all the time.
(and there's nothing we could do about a really massive solar flare, of course)
But my post was both about the threat and the continuation of the manned space mission, which over the past few days we've been repeatedly reassured will continue. And that's not very reassuring, given the current levels of funding. So why not give NASA something more important to do, justify the expenditures (as I presented the case), and improve the situation?
I.e., if we're going to spend the money, spend enough and get something out of it. There's always the chance our grandchildren might thank us for our foresight.
We certainly can't do it at present. Are we limited from having the necessary technology in place in a few years? Certainly not. The use of ion propulsion was already proved by the Deep Space 1 mission. Detection of an asteroid with an impact horizon a few years in the future would allow for the placement of an ion propulsion engine that would nudge the asteroid into a non-collision orbit. But you have to be able to get there to put the engine in place.
It could happen tomorrow. We could get hit tomorrow, too. Ever read about what happened at Tunguska in 1908?
Have you ever heard of Chicken Little? Are you sweating over global warming? (ohh good pun). Do you worry that aliens are reading your thoughts?
Yes, slightly, and no.
It's pointless to worry about something that can't be predicted. It's less pointless to be concerned about something that could be catastrophic (even if there is a low possibility of it occurring), which could also be preventable.
Here's an example. Your house is located in an area that is classified in the "100-year flood" floodplain of a nearby river. I.e., according to what's currently known, about once in a hundred years the area where your house is located will be flooded.
Do you think it's advisable to have flood insurance for your house?
Or Y2K.
Please explain. But if this means getting into various eschatological interpretations, I don't think it would be fruitful or relevant to my reasons for posting the editorial.
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