Posted on 02/07/2003 9:59:36 AM PST by Francohio
Across the Rubicon
The most experienced counterterrorist investigator in the Western world is France's Jean-Louis Bruguiere.
He is not campaigning against a U.S. regime change invasion of Iraq. But he is saying Islamic militants are recruiting hundreds of jihadi-prone co-religionists to carry out terrorist attacks as soon as the war balloon goes up. He also sees the bulk of these threats emanating from groups in Chechnya. Many of these terrorists were trained in how to make chemical weapons in al Qaeda camps in Afghanistan and/or in the Red Army during the Cold War.
Mr. Bruguiere has searched high and low and found no evidence of the Iraqi-al Qaeda link that recently moved from conventional wisdom in the White House to fact certain in president Bush's State of the Union address. War on Iraq without approval from the U.N. Security Council, Mr. Bruguiere says, will exacerbate anti-American sentiments throughout the world and act as a force-multiplier for transnational terrorists.
"Something very big is brewing," Mr. Bruguiere said after Mr. Bush's speech. Trans-Atlantic intelligence coordination led to the recent arrests of terrorist suspects in Spain, Italy and Britain.
"We have evidence of a great deal of recruitment by Islamist radicals whose plans appear to be linked to the expectation of war in Iraq," said Italian Interior Minister Giuseppe Pisano. ..
The Czech Republic's intelligence chief has been informed that some of the suspects arrested in Germany and Britain had transited through Bratislava and Prague, but had originated from somewhere in Central Asia.
Mr. Bruguiere described transnational terrorism in a recent French magazine article as
"The Hundred Years War of Modern Times."
A globalized nihilistic force, he wrote, "is everywhere and nowhere" and totally dedicated to the destruction of Western societies. All Western European intelligence services, including Britain's MI6, now agree that an invasion of Iraq would be (1) a distraction from the war on terror and (2) a catalytic agent for would-be jihadi terrorists from all over the Muslim world and Muslim communities in Western democracies.
The European perception is almost the exact opposite of the Bush administration's view of world events. "We are in danger of being overtaken by events because history is moving too fast," said France's — and Europe's — leading counterterrorist expert. Hard-liners in the Bush administration — and their Likud allies in Israel — are convinced Saddam Hussein's downfall will be a major setback for global terrorism. To which Europe's counterterrorist community responds by saying that Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan was tantamount to kicking a hornet's nest instead of capturing it and neutralizing it. The botched Tora Bora operation 13 months ago scattered the hornets throughout Pakistan, a U.S. ally, and beyond to Kashmir, Chechnya, Malaysia, Indonesia, Yemen, East Africa, even Latin America.
Mr. Bruguiere also believes that the Caucasus — not only Chechnya — is becoming a "neo-Afghanistan" that is more threatening for Europe than for America. Muslim extremists who sympathize with al Qaeda but are not terrorists tell European journalists they are hoping the U.S. invades Iraq. "This will demonstrate once again that Muslims are being targeted and thus will allow them to rally Muslims to their point of view and recruit new militants," said leftist author Mohamed Sifaoui.
So what does the European counterterrorist community propose to do about Saddam and his concealed weapons of mass destruction? He's back in his box, they argue, and subjected to the daily humiliation of U.N. inspectors officially authorized to run roughshod over Iraq's sovereignty. A few more months and the inspectors may get lucky with U.S. intelligence to guide them. Alternatively, Iraqi generals may screw up their courage and gang up on Saddam Soprano. But all such talk is dismissed by the war hawks as the prattle of appeasers.
In recent months, prominent U.S. generals with extensive Middle Eastern experience, who can hardly be taxed with appeasement, have warned about the pitfalls of a U.S. invasion of Iraq. The latest recruit to their ranks is the retiring NATO supreme commander, Air Force Gen. Joe Ralston, a former deputy chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Gen. Ralston, like Gens. "Stormin' Norman" Schwarzkopf, supreme commander of the first Gulf war against Iraq in 1991, and Anthony Zinni, former commander in chief of the Central Command (which encompasses the entire Mideast), says a solution to the bloody Israeli-Palestinian deadlock is a much higher priority than regime change in Iraq. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has decided otherwise.
In any event, as Julius Caesar said on crossing the river Rubicon in 49 B.C., "jacta alea est" — the die is cast. He preferred the dignity of war over the humiliation of a process. In doing so, he invaded Italy and provoked the Second Civil War from which sprang the genesis of modern European culture. Mr. Bush has no intention of succumbing to the U.N. process.
Psychologically at least, Bush has crossed his Rubicon.
He has no intention of upending the biggest deployment of U.S. military power since the Gulf war short of Saddam's annihilation.
The emergence of a postwar democratic Iraq is a Walter Mitty fantasy. But one can at least hope that Iraq, an artificial multi-ethnic state created after the First World War, does not meet the fate of Yugoslavia, another artificial multi-ethnic state launched after the Second World War.
Arnaud de Borchgrave is editor at large of The Washington Times and of United Press International.
we have entered difficult times...
If fear of enemy counterattack was a hindrance to U.S. action, this French author would be speaking German. Good heavens! Of COURSE they are, you moron. And guess what? The Iraqis will probably shoot at us too.
Because we do not yet have the joint written instruction, doesn't mean they the two are not closely connected.
What Bush and the administration are hiding, I believe, is that many of the connections tie in the Saudis. It is Saudi money that supports terror and, to some extent, Saddam.
How does Al Qaeda move money around now that the banks in most countries are monitored. I believe that it is mostly Iraqi diplomatic pouches. Sometimes, Saudi and sometimes Syrian or Libyan but mostly Iraqi.
In fact, look at the issue of "cash." The Saudis and Iraqis can legally get large quanties of bills from legitimate sources. But, those bills can't be passed to Al Qaeda cells in the US or Europe because the are traceable. I believe there is also a tie in with Mexican and South American drug lords and that they wash the clean Saudi bills and provide the Iraqis with used bills that can be freely spent.
Because there are no [public] links yet available, doesn't mean that terrorism and Iraq are different problems. The key issue is, "What must we do to prevent another 9/11?" Taking out Saddam and all his assets couldn't hurt!
"Likud allies in Israel"??? Imagine THAT! (sarcasm) This war will be fought for three reasons,to protect Israel,to protect Bubba-2's buddies in Saudi Arabia,and to keep his poll numbers up as he convinces the sheeple that he is a "man of action" who is going to "protect them against terrorism".
are convinced Saddam Hussein's downfall will be a major setback for global terrorism.
This was has absolutely nothing to do with terrorism,other than to encourage more of it. Which when you think of it,may well be the 4th reason it will be fought. There is NOTHING Bubba-2 and his RINO pals would love more than excuses to justify his new Office of Reich Security and new assaults on the Bill of Rights,as the feral gooberment grabs more power.
Wrong. Iraq is just a convenient excuse and handy villian. The real reason for the so-called "War on Terrorism" is to grab more power at the federal level over US citizens by using terrorist attacks as a excuse to take away or restrict more and more of our rights. They are no doubt hoping that after a few years of more and more loss of freedom,the sheeple won't even bleat when they announce Canada,the US,and Mexico will be forming into a new "Uber Nation" that requires a new constitution. One "more appropiate for modern times".
Yes,and we will be told we have to accept more restrictions on our travel and other freedoms,in order to defend against terrorists. Things like a national ID card,permission to travel out of state,federal guards at coastal marinas who will sell you a permit to go to sea,and who have arrest powers for anyone coming into port who "papers aren't in order". Once all that takes place,we will be told that what we REALLY need to fight terrorism and crime is a cashless society,and oddly enough,our new national ID cards will have our "citizen ID number" already on it! WADDA COINCIDENCE! ALL your money and bills will exist electronically,and you won't be able to buy ANYTHING with cash. The end result is the gooberment will have the INSTANT power to shut anybody down,any time they want. All they have to do is delete your "citizen ID number",and you and all your assets no longer exist. You can't even buy a cup of coffee or a gallon of gas. They will have total control over all citizens at a level that Stalin or Hitler never dreamed possible. The day the government announces this is going to happen is the day I pick up my rifle and go into politics.
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