Panic Is Near if "The Gold Is Gone"

Insight ^ | 3 March 2003 | Kelly Patricia O'Meara

[Publius]

Shortly after making his comments, John Embry was fired by Royal Bank. He now runs his own gold fund.

[Steven W.]

which would be a good thing to start shorting ;)

[Capitalism2003]

Short gold, buy silver...

There is less silver in world inventories than gold right now and the price has not shot up to match gold's rise...I think it's ga great value...been buying silver eagles on ebay over the past few months.

[First_Salute]

Gold is a "life-ring" to grasp in order to diminish the effects of wild swings in the value of currency.

The recent rise in gold prices is an indicator of, but not to be used as an accurate measure of, the results found in a look forward at the anticipated value of currency.

When gold is sharply up, that means that currency is expected to be worth less. When gold is sharply down, that means that currency is expected to be worth more.

[doosee]

When gold is sharply up, that means that currency is expected to be worth less. When gold is sharply down, that means that currency is expected to be worth more.


I think gold reached its pinnacle and then amalgams were invented to create new teeth. That was the beginning of the end.

[Dinsdale]

which is an enormous deficit when yearly mine supply is only 2,500 tonnes and going down. (edit)

.....

estimates the alleged shortage of central-bank gold at between 15,000 and 16,000 tonnes -- nearly a decade's worth of mine production.

So what is world gold production 2,500 tons or 15,000 tons?

A source that cannot keep it's numbers straight for two paragraphs is suspect.

[IncPen]

I've been bemused at the 'gold bugs' on this forum over the years and the doom-saying that generally goes with it.

But it begs the question of people like Embry... how can you play this game when it's clear that major, major stakeholders aren't being forthright in their disclosures?

It seems this article is more about the shady big operators and the probability that little guys will get caught in their pinchers.

It reminds me of DeBeers, or something

Finally, I understood that even as recently as a few years ago Russia was thought to have a virtually inexhaustible amount of silver yet unrealized (in fact, I learned this after losing a small amount in the commodities market on silver trading)

It's interesting to watch from the sidelines, but the average investor is, IMHO swimming with sharks on this

[Chuckster]

From your posted reply:

yearly mine supply is only 2,500 tonnes and going down. (edit)

"....between 15,000 and 16,000 tonnes -- nearly decade's worth of mine production.

Note the words in bold type. Makes a little more sense that way nicht war?

[WatchNKorea]

I've been out of the coin business for years, but here's the number of Houston Precious Metals. Just called them, and they have on hand - right now, 600 ounces of gold bullion coins - (Kruggerrands)- ready to go. No charge fellow posters - for giving you this competitive name in the numismatic business.
713-228-3931

[First_Salute]

Another way to look at gold, is as an indicator of ability to trade goods.

When more able, then "producing one's way out of the hole" may be relied upon. When less able, then selling assets is more relied upon.

Because we would hope to hang on to our assets by which we produce, it helps to have something to trade. Gold is handy at such times.

[BlackJack]

bump

[BlackJack]

How about Silver?

[WatchNKorea]

I post this to all my friends on my ping list:

Capitalism2003 says:
"Short gold, buy silver..."

I have to take the opposite side..at least as far as gold bullion is concerned. Gold has dropped (probably do to profit taking) $30 an ounce over the past two weeks and the short your suggesting has just taken place. Buy gold tomorrow at this $349 level is my advise!
(and no, I don't own Houston Precious Metals and no, I will receive no commission or stipend whatsoever for mentioning this fine company's name)

[WatchNKorea]

Could be something happening in silver. Just watch the next few days. (spot today is $4.64)

[Cacique]

bookmark bump

[Poohbah]

$349 is still rather high, and the upside for silver looks much better than the upside for gold. When gold hits its resistance level again, a lot of money will divert over to silver--which is not as highly valued relative to its availability as gold is.

YMMV, OIRVMACTTA, et cetera.

[WatchNKorea]

"It seems this article is more about the shady big operators and the probability that little guys will get caught in their pinchers."

I've always heard that portfolios should contain gold bullion and or rare coins to the tune of 5%. Now is that time to fulfull this 5%.
(IncPen, our U.S. govt mints and sells to banks and coin dealers ...gold bullion American Eagles. (and silver Eagles)

[Nick Danger]

Buy gold tomorrow at this $349 level is my advise!

I'm with IncPen in #7: this is like swimming with sharks. The main thing that anyone should get from this article is that this is a market where the central banks of some pretty big countries are players. However much they have sold or swapped already, no one disputes that they still have many tons left. So that's who you're playing against when you go into this market: guys with literally tons of Other People's Money. They also have entire staffs of economists... forecasters... the best computer models money can buy. An individual investor is a bug in that environment; you could get squashed like a bug at any moment. Good luck to those who want to play this; I do hope they are playing with risk capital and not their life savings.

[WatchNKorea]

$349 is still rather high...

Although I was never very good at trying to guess the swings in the gold and silver bullion markets, I do know that all the big brokerage firms have always suggested that one should have 5% of their portfolio made up of gold or silver bullion and rare coins.

[Dinsdale]

My bad...

The numbers still don't match though.