Regards, Ivan
Posted on 02/27/2003 3:28:53 PM PST by MadIvan
RUSSIA and China stepped up their opposition to war in Iraq yesterday with a demand for a diplomatic solution. The two UN veto-bearing nations were, however, careful to couch a joint statement in terms that would not cause immediate offence to Washington.
A joint statement issued in Beijing said that both countries “confirm their firm resolution to continue to promote a peaceful settlement of the problem of Iraq by all possible means believing that war can and must be avoided”.
Both have strong reasons to oppose American policy; the Russians because they fear the loss of valuable oil-related contracts in Iraq and China because it fears that it might one day become the target of a pro-active world policeman. Equally, neither can afford to make an enemy of the US.
Beijing signalled its opposition to a second UN resolution after a visit by Igor Ivanov, the Russian Foreign Minister. The Chinese leadership also played host to Colin Powell, the US Secretary of State, but the Russian carried off the bigger prize and Mr Powell left empty-handed Beijing called for measures to avoid war in Iraq and insisted on resolving “the Iraqi crisis through political and diplomatic means”.
Mr Powell had held talks with Chinese leaders on Monday, hoping to convince them to come out in favour of strong action on Iraq through the UN. In recent weeks, Beijing had been reluctant to side with the anti-war camp, temporarily fostering US hopes of Chinese support.
China has long voiced its opposition to American military interventions overseas. Yet Beijing is unlikely to desert Washington completely. Its economic and diplomatic relationship with the US is too important for the Chinese leadership to risk a serious rift.
China is utterly dependent on its $100 billion exports to the US. Nor would it want to be excluded from cheap Iraqi oil after the conclusion of a war. Beijing may, therefore, follow Russia’s lead in the UN Security Council but only as long as its position does not seriously harm America.
China is expected to use its veto in the council only if failure of a US resolution is a foregone conclusion, thus protecting itself from Washington’s wrath. The likeliest outcome is now a Chinese abstention.
In talks with Jacques Chirac, the French President, earlier in the month, President Putin for the first and, so far, only time said that Russia had used its veto in the past and might use it again.
In a telephone call to President Bush, the Russian leader appeared, however, to confirm that he would not embarrass Mr Bush when the two men agreed to work towards a solution to the Iraq crisis taking into account “the interests of the international community”.
“The unity of the United Nations means too much to Russia and Putin is not interested in testing his relationship with Bush,” said the Vremya Novostei newspaper.
Alexei Malashenko of the Institute of Foreign Relations at the Russian Foreign Ministry said that Russia would not use its veto because Russia had invested too much in its new friendship with the US.
Professor Malashenko said: “Russia has a dual policy. They will not use their right of veto but they will continue to say they are disappointed at US policy.”
He said Russia’s public opposition to war with Iraq was partly aimed at pacifying opinion in the Muslim world: “There are also 20 million Muslims in Russia. But mainly, Russia does not want to be associated with US policy in the Muslim world.”
Western diplomats in Moscow also thought it unlikely that Russia would use its veto at the Security Council. “Look closely at the wording of the recent statement from Ivanov. They always leave a get-out clause in there somewhere allowing them to blame Iraq if war comes,” said one diplomat.
Regards, Ivan
Too late. The Russians are already a major target of the Islamists, and no attempt to distance themselves from us will make a bit of difference.
He chose Powell's plan from the beginning (a huge mistake), and now he has no choice but to see it through. It's no coincidence that Bush's approval ratings have plummetted 10% in 2 months.....to pre-9/11 levels.
Regards, Ivan
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