[a_Turk]

Dr Robert M Cutler, http://www.robertcutler.org, is Research Fellow, Institute of European and Russian Studies, Carleton University, Canada

[a_Turk]

ping..

[anniegetyourgun]

"Press reports, especially in North America, suggested that a deal between Ankara and Washington was just a question of money, using the metaphor of the bazaar to explain Turkish negotiating behavior."

And this is the American administration's fault?

[dead]

The American administration also appeared to assume that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Ankara could make its parliamentary deputies fall into line as easily as the Republican Party in the US can whip its congressmen and senators into supporting administration policy.

That alone set off all sorts of “clueless” alarm bells.

I guess this genius never heard of Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Lincoln Chafee, Arlen Specter, John McCain, etc.

[AntiGuv]

The second result of the Turkish vote that has passed almost unnoticed is . . . The same vote that rejected the American aid package failed to authorize Turkey's military intervention in northern Iraq.

The wide ramifications of this widely unremarked aspect of the vote in Ankara will be explored in a subsequent article.

I noticed this immediately, but didn't think it worthy of remark - much less any subsequent articles. The Turkish parliament will approve such a deployment - as a separate measure, if necessary - whenever the Turkish military chooses to ask for this. Even without explicit authorization, the Turkish military will deploy as it sees fit, regardless...

[hgro]

This sounds like the Dimocrat minority in the Congress of the U.S.A. A collection of dim bulbs, crooks, labor toadies and hollyweird suckups.

[Beck_isright]

But a_Turk, democracy in our nation works to the highest bidder! You need to get your nation up with the times. Right now if you have the money to rent at least 20 Demorats or Republicans you can get something passed benefitting your business. </sarcasm off

On a more serious note, you have to remember that our media is designed to inform on the level of the average Sesame Street viewer. On several other threads I challanged FReepers to show their knowledge about Turkey and it's past but with no response. The reality is that Turkey is waiting to see who will be a partner economically if you ask me. Russia, the EU, the US and Asia are all trying to win Turkey's favor. So far I would say the EU and US have done a rather crappy job on every level.

[Allan]

Dr Robert M Cutler, http://www.robertcutler.org
is Research Fellow, Institute of European and Russian Studies,
Carleton University, Canada

He also is a frequent guest on the excellent
Batchelor and Alexander program
(available via internet, WABC M-S from 10pm-1amET)
which is a tremendous source of valuable information
on the 'war'.

[the-ironically-named-proverbs2]

"Not unreasonably, Turkish leaders contended that the Ankara stock market and the Turkish lira would be hit immediately on the commencement of war,"

What happened after the vote?

[Psalm 73]

Sadly, this is what happens when a "Third-World" country thinks it's actually in this century.
If they weren't so currupt in the first place, their economy wouldn't be so fragile. They're just another Moslem country stuck in the 14th century...

[johnb838]

Eenie-Meenie-Minie-Mo Pick a base, we gotta go!

[Robert357]

Interesting.

However, lets go look at the big picture. If the US invades Iraq and uses Turkey as a staging point Sadam will likely retaliate against Turkey US supply bases if he can. Or Sadam could just fire Scuds into Turkey as he did into Israel and Saudi A. in the last war.

If Sadam attacks Turkey, Nato kicks in and the US would likely be welcomed to enter quickly, only delaying initial tactical advantages.

So the real loss to the US invasion is a quick link up with Kurdish freedom fighters. That is if like in Afghanistan we want our ground forces to utilize local people (Kurds as proxys for Northern Alliance) in the fight against the controlling military forces, then it will just add some time to position our troops, but it should at the same time save us several billion in aid payments. Based on Dessert Storm, the amount of time has to be less than a week to move troops and heavy equipment via another route.

That hardly seems like a double fisted problem.

What I don't understand is why the Turkish gov. doesn't want to be part of the group that frees the Iraq Kurds from Sadam. While there is no love lost between Turkey and the Kurds, one would think such a move could reduce future problems, unless the Turkish Gov. assumes that war means that Sadam will drive Irag Kurds across the border into Turkey by some means and that they really, really don't want any refuges. If that is the question, they need to ask themselves if their stand will really prevent a war in Iragu. I think the answer to this is also no.

[river rat]

Turkey's first appearance in the "World Series"...with an opportunity to be a star and hero.
An opportunity to prove they're ready for the Major League...

Batter steps up to the plate...
The crowd is roaring....
The pitch is slow and across the plate...
Swing and a miss....
Batter is out...

Really really too bad..
I truly had expected that Turkey would brave the stupidity of our State Department and their own fanatics --- but was proved wrong....
I guess blood is thicker that water....
The "islamists" appear to be back in control of Turkey..

I'm sure France will approve...and permit Turkey to join the failing EU...
Too bad...but we really need to move on and kick some ass..

Semper Fi

[jagrmeister]

What allies does Turkey have? Their consideration for entry into the EU was rejected on frivolous grounds masking ethinc contempt that the Europeans have for them. They are not accepted in the Arab world. America is the last best ally they could hope for. And the Justice party just blew that opportunity, especially since we just went to bat for Turkey at NATO. This will not be taken lightly.

[marron]

I don't think the vote took place in a vacuum. There is no doubt enormous wrangling behind the scenes as Saddam and the left struggle to line up their forces. We went into this thinking that transit rights would be a "done deal", since for one, the Turks have been with us right through from the beginning of the Iraqi war, due to our NATO relationship, due to our relationship with the Turkish military.

But there are political realities in Turkey, and there has been a shift in the governing party. I have seen the new ruling party described as more populist than Islamist, but in either case, anti-western tendencies seem to be growing in Turkey. Just as Islamism grows thoughout the world, it has also grown in Turkey. The reasons for it are many, in part reflecting perhaps the natural tendency people have of trying to get back to their roots in time of trouble. It just happens that, in Turkey, Islamism has offered itself as an authentic Turkish alternative to being subsumed into an empty and corrupt West.

Thats all fine, except that it has very real consequences in terms of realpolitik.

More Western-oriented Turks have seen this tendency growing, and have pushed for accession to the EU as a way of confirming Turkey's Western future, and heading these people off at the pass. Unfortunately, Turkish accession to the EU scares the pants of the Europeans, and they have found every pretext to delay it, to the point of being rather openly racist. This further humiliation only strengthens the hand of the Islamist parties in Turkey, and in fact they have been brought into power as their analysis of the world gains ground.

So what we thought was a done deal, was not.

It would be incredible to believe that Saddam, and pro-Saddam forces, and the anti-American left were sitting on their hands during this time. We know that many Euro leaders have financial relationships with Saddam, which can explain much, but cannot explain everything. No politician, bought or not, can get too far out ahead of his people if he wants to stay in power. You could make similar assumptions about US politicians and their relationships with the Saudis, but this has not stopped Bush, for example, whose family is famously invested in the present Saudi regime, from taking positions that are polar opposite of the Saudi regime's, and in taking positions that may in the end bring it down.

But the Islamists across the middle east, and perhaps in Turkey as well, seem unable to view Saddam as any threat to themselves, which is astonishing considering the fact that no one on earth has killed as many Muslims as has he, but the fact is what it is. To an Islamist, even a populist speaking in Islamist terms, the US is a far greater threat than is a belligerent Saddam.

This sounds astonishing until you realize that the US itelf is similarly polarized, and when you remember by how close a margin the left was denied the White House, and when you realized the almost impregnable power centers it continues to occupy in the Senate, the press, and the University.

If you believe in confronting aggressive evil, you are never going to get a preponderance of the public behind you. It didn't happen in the years leading up to the Second World War, which is sort of a historical benchmark for this kind of thing. Most of Europe supported either the Hitlerian view of history and economics, or the Stalinist view, and outside of Britain, could only muster a few bands of partisans to resist it. Nowhere did Europe put up more than a symbolic fight before laying down its arms and rounding up its jews with enthusiasm.

In our time, we face a leftist enemy that has allied itself with the Islamists, and again we are going into battle with almost no support outside of the Anglo-saxon world, and that only at the expense of some extreme political courage on the part of Blair and Howard who are with us in the face of the overwhelming antipathy of their people.

You can micro-analyze why we lost Turkey, and its an interesting story, but the fact is that we hardly have anyone. The Vilnius Axis is appreciated, but it will be offering no amored divisions to march on Baghdad. We will be doing this alone.

The State Department deserves all the criticism in the world, and in other venues I have called for their rebuilding from the ground up, maybe disbanding them along with the ATF before rebuilding them with a better qualified cadre of patriots. I suggest they recruit the first 10,000 names out of the phone book, they could not do worse.

But while they are deserving of their share of criticism, the fact remains that no one will be compensating the US for its losses as war begins. Turkey's demand for compensation is understandable, but is beside the point. The point from our point of view is that friends don't let friends go into battle alone. We may well not have been the friends the Turks hoped we would be, which means their unwillingness to fight at our side may be more symptom than first-cause, but it is what it is. Even before the present blow-up the Turks had made it clear they were going only to occupy the north, and not to join in the attack on Iraqi troop concentrations.

So, its deja-vue all over again. We are going to war, and we are going essentially alone with a very few friends. Very few. What would be unusual about that?

[Pagey]

I'm really surprised at the actions of the political parties in Turkey. It's really amazing.I wonder how Paul Wolfowitz feels about this right now.I'd like to be a fly on his shoulder.

[habaes corpussel]

"Press reports, especially in North America, suggested that a deal between Ankara and Washington was just a question of money, using the metaphor of the bazaar to explain Turkish negotiating behavior. In the end, this description was shown to be ill-conceived and inaccurate. More was at stake than just the amount of money. Turkish leaders consistently said so, but no one in Washington seemed to hear them. The American administration also appeared to assume that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Ankara could make its parliamentary deputies fall into line as easily as the Republican Party in the US can whip its congressmen and senators into supporting administration policy."

A lot said in this first paragraph.

[GopherIt]

I have little quarrel with the intricacies of Turkish economics and politics that you have been pointing out, and considerable respect for the Turkish culture and hospitality I have experienced, but one item has been all but ignored in the last few days: less than two weeks ago, the U.S., and others, went to bat for Turkey at NATO, big time, and I believe some of the offloading we see on TV at your ports is materiel intended for your defense. As Tom Delay said to the French, "You're welcome."

[not a kook]

I think that a subsidy of about 30 billion given to the newest member of the family of nations, the independent republic of Kurdistan, would make fine seed money. The Armenians might be needing an upgrade in their armed forces, too.