Saddam's suicidal deployment of elite troops could be gift to coalition

The Guardian ^ | Apr 3, 2003 | Amatzia Baram

[Diddley]

The Republican Guard consists of three armoured divisions (Medina south of Baghdad, Hammurabi in the west, and al-Nida in the north-east). Before the war each was equipped with around 200-250 T-72 Russian tanks but possibly also scores of lesser T-62s.

The Guard also has one mechanised division, the Adnan, which was in the north near Mosul, but large parts of it have moved south towards Baghdad. The Baghdad infantry division was located south-east of the capital near Kut. Yesterday, it was reported the Medina ceased to exist as an organised strike force. The same was said about the Baghdad division after a far shorter engagement with coalition forces. This makes sense because the Baghdad is a light division with few armoured vehicles.

What can we understand from these reports? It may be that most, or almost all the Guard's tanks were destroyed. The coalition outguns and outnumbers T-72s, and the coalition command and control system is intact and very effective, unlike the Iraqi one.

Some tanks, while not fighting in large formations may still be hiding behind vegetation, houses or dug in to ambush the advancing American forces when the move on Baghdad starts.

Alternatively, it may be that soldiers of the Baghdad division as well as some armoured elements from the Medina withdrew into Baghdad and will confront the advancing American troops from behind civilian targets. In doing so they will be joining the Special Republican Guard, a force of about 20,000 militia well-trained in urban warfare. By keeping his best army divisions outside of Baghdad, confronting the allied forces with very little ground-to-air protection, Saddam in fact sentenced them to death.

Their only chance of survival and inflicting damage on the advancing coalition forces is from within Baghdad. There they will be protected by the formidable anti-aircraft power in and around the city. This will limit the effectiveness of the coalition's helicopter gunships.

When they engage the coalition from behind their civilians they will present their enemy with a daunting dilemma: if the Americans and British use all their firepower, they are very likely to kill many Iraqi civilians, but if they hold their fire, they will be paying a heavy price in terms of their own troops' vulnerability.

It is not clear why Saddam or his lieutenants decided to expose the Guard. It is all the more puzzling as the other Guard tank divisions, the Hammarabi and the Nida, are also outside Baghdad and apparently have in the same suicidal way been ordered to engage the coalition before they reach the capital. If these orders stand these two divisions, will be decimated.

The Iraqi leadership may withdraw the Guard into town, but this would present a problem for Saddam. The Guard is regarded as less loyal than the Special Republican Guard. Until now they were not allowed into Baghdad, for fear of a coup d'etat.

The Guard served as a buffer between the capital city and it is this system that is crumbling.

[Diddley]

Some tanks, while not fighting in large formations may still be hiding behind vegetation, houses or dug in to ambush the advancing American forces when the move on Baghdad starts.
Baghdad division soldiers and armoured elements from the Medina may be in Baghdad to confront advancing troops.
If coalition uses lots of firepower, may kill lots of civilians.
If coalition doesn't use lots of firepower, many coaliton troops may be killed.

[Diddley]

The title doesn't really agree with the article.

[1066AD]

The more I read/listen the more I think there's essentially no one effectively in overall command on the Iraqi side...unless it's to lure us in further prior to a WMD fuelled "gotterdamerung", but I think fustercluck on their side is the better diagnosis, IMHO. Hope I'm right...

[Diddley]

I think that your alternatives are what the situation is.

(See my tagline)

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Saddam wants gory pictures to show on the Arabic TV stations!

OFFICIAL BUMP(TOPIC)LIST

[EternalVigilance]

...the Special Republican Guard, a force of about 20,000 militia well-trained in urban warfare.

That means they have been shown how to grab 5 year-old kids and hold them in front of them as human shields...

[nickcarraway]

The Guard is regarded as less loyal than the Special Republican Guard. Until now they were not allowed into Baghdad, for fear of a coup d'etat.

[truth_seeker]

Concerning Republican Guard:

"That means they have been shown how to grab 5 year-old kids and hold them in front of them as human shields..."

You have just described one of the doctrines of Islamist battle doctrine.

Isn't islam wonderful?

[EternalVigilance]

Isn't islam wonderful?

Demons think so...

[struwwelpeter]

A tank was not designed to hide. According to Gen. Patton, the tank's three main weapons are its treads (for mobility), its machine guns (for infantry), and then lastly its main gun (against other tanks, which they should avoid).

An old Russian tanker's song comes to mind when I think of what they will be facing soon:

---

Na pole tanki grokhotali
(In the field tanks roared)

Words - V. Suslov, Music - G. Portnov

Na pole tanki grokhotali,
Soldati shli v posledniy boy,
A molodogo komandira
Nesli s probitoy golovoy
A molodogo komandira
Nesli s probitoy golovoy

In the field tanks roared,
Soldiers went into their last battle,
And they carried off the young commander
Shot through the head
And they carried off the young commander
Shot through the head

Po tanku vdarila bolvanka,
Proshchay rodimiy ehkipazh
Chetyre trupa vozle tanka
Dopolnyat utrenniy peysazh
Chetyre trupa vozle tanka
Dopolnyat utrenniy peysazh

An ingot of iron struck the tank,
Goodbye our crew.
Four bodies by the tank
Add to the morning landscape
Four bodies by the tank
Add to the morning landscape

[happygrl]

A Russian Tank Song is like sunshine in the morning.
Sheeesh!

[Diddley]

[5]- Saddam wants gory pictures to show on the Arabic TV stations! .

I am convinced that Saddam is dead, but nevertheless his regime is just as bad as he is.
It’s inconceivable that human beings would do these things (but I know that they will).