Posted on 04/05/2003 7:36:45 AM PST by knighthawk
If it becomes a siege, British troops have developed a model
KUWAIT CITY - Saddam Hussein's regime appears poised to fall as a U.S. invasion force stands on Baghdad's doorstep and his elite Republican Guard divisions have been sent reeling in defeat or have fallen back on the capital for a bloody last stand.
Late last night, as U.S. troops attacked Baghdad's international airport, the city was plunged into darkness from unexplained power cuts and the situation on the battlefield was said to be so fluid no one could predict what would happen next.
Some U.S. troops are said to have pushed to within 15 kilometres of downtown Baghdad as they advance along a 150-kilometre-wide front from the southwest and southeast against relatively light resistance.
But the battle for Baghdad, home to five million people, may still be long and bloody.
Iraq's leaders have long prepared for the defence of the capital. They may hope to lure coalition forces into an urban trap in which U.S. aircraft and other high-powered weaponry will be less effective against an enemy entrenched in and around buildings and surrounded by civilians.
Baghdad is defended by the Special Republican Guard, Saddam Hussein's personal security force, which numbers about 15,000 men, as well as by the Saddam Fedayeen (Saddam's Martyrs), a fanatical, irregular force that has terrorized southern Iraqi cities and waged a fierce guerrilla war against U.S. supply lines.
For the past two days, 100,000 members of the six Republican Guard divisions, who manned a defensive arc around the outskirts of the capital, bore the full brunt of a devastating air bombardment while being attacked on two separate fronts by the U.S. Army's Third Division and the U.S. Marines. The remnants of those troops may now be taking up prepared positions inside Baghdad.
If the battle for the southern city of Basra, Iraq's second-largest city, is any indication, capturing Baghdad will require prolonged planning, probing reconnaissance missions, clandestine commando raids and pinpoint air strikes aimed at remaining government targets.
Coalition war plans call for limiting Iraqi civilian casualties and retaining most of the country's infrastructure. That would appear to rule out a headlong rush into the capital in a bid to crush the remnants of Saddam's regime.
But the battle for Baghdad has already been preceded by a two- week air bombardment during which crucial military and government targets were hit by more than 725 cruise missiles and nearly 12,000 precision-guided bombs. U.S. commanders may feel the city's defences have been so badly damaged, it is safe to proceed with a series of quick attacks.
Their tactics might depend on what intelligence reports say about Baghdad's defences and the state of the Iraqi leadership.
If intelligence assessments suggest the leadership is vulnerable, U.S. troops may opt to push on, in the hopes the capital will fall with one sharp crack.
Right now, there is uncertainty over whether Saddam is dead or alive, and whether or not Iraq's military is receiving coherent direction from the remnants of his regime.
U.S. officials may also hope the time is ripe for disgruntled elements of the battered Republican Guard to stage a coup against Saddam, opening the way for the coalition's occupation of the city without a battle.
If U.S. military planners decide they are facing a methodical urban defence, they will not surge into the capital, but will opt instead to stay on the fringes, focusing their attacks on the city's defences and the last vestiges of Iraq's leadership.
Then, the battle for Baghdad will become a slow, meticulous struggle for control of its bridges, main roads and remaining strong points.
The battle for Basra to the south, may become a model for a prolonged siege.
For two weeks, British troops have ringed Basra, staging regular raids into the city of 1.5 million, pushing deeper and deeper each day to gather information on the 1,000 or so Iraqi fighters inside.
Like Baghdad, Basra lives under a pall of black smoke from oil-filled trenches set alight by defenders.
British troops have surrounded the city on three sides, leaving a bolthole to the north, where they can attack any army and paramilitary units that might try to flee.
Meanwhile, British artillery and U.S. air strikes continue to pound away at Iraqi tanks, mortar positions and government targets.
Civilians have been allowed to enter and leave the city at will, after being searched. British troops have attempted to provide them with water and food,and worked to restore their power.
"We are deliberately not taking the city yet," said Colonel Chris Vernon, a British Army spokes- man. "We are not destroying Basra either. We are trying to drive a wedge between the people and the death squads who are entrenched inside."
The result, the British say, is they getting more and more co-operation from residents. People are telling them where Iraqi military units are hiding, said Col. Vernon, and these are being destroyed "with purpose, agility, determination, discipline and endurance."
U.S. forces may adapt the British approach, conducting heavily armed probes into Baghdad to maintain the military initiative and keep Iraq's leaders off balance, while selectively attacking the city's strong points.
U.S. special forces can be expected to stage raids into the heart of Baghdad to call in air strikes against selected targets or to launch "snatch and grab" attacks against the remnants of the Iraqi regime.
Any attack will be methodical. U.S. war planners have had 12 years to study the Iraqi capital in detail and are said to have used satellite images to develop detailed computerized models of each neighbourhood so Air Force bombers and Army helicopter pilots could practise "virtual" attacks on targets.
U.S. troops may also adopt some of the psychological weapons British troops have used in Basra, the site of a failed Shiite Muslim uprising at the end of the Gulf War.
After being urged to rise up against Saddam's regime, Basra's 1991 rebellion was crushed by his troops, when U.S. forces in the region failed to come to the city's aid.
This week, Basra has been showered with leaflets assuring residents Saddam's fall is imminent.
"We will not desert you this time," the pamphlets read. "Trust us and be patient."
pgoodspeed@nationalpost.com
Baghdad is being taken care of just fine.
Thank God, no one is following "the plans" from the media.
Peter Goodspeed, I have a plan for you. Why don't you do your job and report what's going on. Quit trying to become a part of the story.
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