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Posted on 04/14/2003 5:52:57 PM PDT by Axion
Sources: RG, SRG Commanders Betrayed Hussein Summary
Apr 15, 2003 - 0042 GMT
Stratfor's German intelligence sources say that Iraq fell so quickly because Saddam Hussein was killed early in the war, due to some top Iraqi military leaders negotiating the end of resistance by elite forces. While these reports are unconfirmed, it is not inconceivable. A decision by top Iraqi commanders and secret services chiefs to betray their leaders before or during the war could have led to the collapse of the regime.
Analysis
Stratfor's sources within the German intelligence community have said that reports are circulating in the German intelligence services that the primary reason for the rapid downfall of the Iraqi regime and military was Saddam Hussein's death during the preliminary "decapitation" strike on March 20 in Baghdad. The sources say that some unnamed top regime leaders and officers in the Special Republican Guard had informed the United States of his whereabouts. During the initial salvo, Stratfor's sources say, both Saddam and Qusai Hussein were killed, as were a number of top Baath Party leaders -- including Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, the deputy chairman of the Revolutionary Command Council and Hussein's right-hand man. Odai Hussein reportedly was seriously wounded in the strike, so Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz and Vice President Taha Yassin Ramadan largely led the Iraqi military's efforts.
The sources say that officers in the Republican Guard, Special Republican Guard and commanders of the Iraqi security services sabotaged Aziz and Ramadan's efforts to resist the coalition forces, conducting secret talks with Americans to stop Iraqi resistance. During the second week of the war, when the front was at Karbala, the sources say a secret deal was made between top commanders of the RG, SRG and Washington. Those commanders agreed to surrender Baghdad without a fight and effectively stop the war on Iraq in exchange for cash payments and guarantees of safety for them.
Aziz and Ramadan reportedly discovered the betrayal only when the U.S. forces safely passed by Karbala and took the Saddam (Baghdad) International Airport, which RG units abandoned practically without resistance. But it was too late for Ramadan and Aziz to act against the traitors -- the treasonous forces found they were in the majority and ordered Aziz, Ramadan and the wounded Odai killed. After their deaths, the sources say, there was no one left in the Iraqi leadership to lead the resistance. The RG and SRG commanders ordered their troops to lay down arms, change clothes and return home, the sources say.
These reports are unconfirmed, though some similar allegations have been made in foreign media. Stratfor is seeking information to confirm or disconfirm them. But at this point, some parts of these reports seem conceivable. It is impossible to deny, for example, that RG and SRG have not put up any real resistance to the coalition forces. Some embedded journalists reported through the course of the war that advancing U.S. troops were fighting some RG units -- but after the U.S. forces entered those areas of subdued resistance, no trace of RG resistance, or indeed presence, was found. In all the cities and towns coalition forces took or bypassed, abundant evidence has been present that the Iraqi forces fighting were Fedayeen, local militia and some small army units.
If the reports from German intelligence are true, the above fact indicates that Ramadan likely was in command of the local militias. Similarly, if Odai survived but was wounded in the first strike, he still could encourage his Fedayeen soldiers to attack coalition troops across the country. In any case, it looks like only the forces under Ramadan and Odai stood and fought, while the elite units and secret services opted out. If the reports are true about Aziz, Odai and Ramadan being killed before the U.S. forces entered Baghdad, it would explain why the U.S. troops did not encounter any organized resistance, and only diehard foreign volunteers and some Fedayeen took their last stand in Baghdad. The same way, the fact that the United States encountered little to no resistance in Kirkuk or Tikrit would make sense if there was no one left to lead such resistance.
There could be other explanations why Iraqi forces suddenly changed from offering some stiff resistance in the south to offering no organized resistance in central and northern Iraq. For example, the Iraqi forces could have collapsed, or Hussein might have made a sophisticated plan to give up the whole country, knowing Iraq could not resist in conventional war, to start a postwar guerrilla war. These explanations are feasible theoretically, but the fact that there was serious resistance in the first two weeks of the war argues against these explanations.
First, the mere fact that they were fighting and inflicting some losses on the world's mightiest war machine should have encouraged, not discouraged, Iraqis to further resist. It also should have been encouraging that the first battles and losses were the result of local militia and Fedayeen actions, and that no Iraqi units surrendered en mass -- logically, it seems Iraqi forces would have hoped that their elite forces, much better-trained than those taking part in early fighting, would do the job even better. In short, even with all the coalition bombing, the results of the first two weeks of the war should not have discouraged the RG and SRG forces.
Second, if the Iraqi leadership had considered a strategic decision to give up Baghdad and the whole country for the sake of preserving forces for guerrilla war, Hussein should have realized that such a decision would be too risky. To start, the morale of Iraqi armed forces, people and indeed all Muslims would be shattered to say the least -- and it is shattered as we can see now. With morale broken, it would be difficult to find fighters willing to struggle against the coalition forces. Also, where could such numbers of RG and SRG formations hide without the risk of being immediately identified and bombed? It is hard to believe that close to 100,000 elite Iraqi soldiers, with their arms, have disappeared and are maintaining combat preparedness for a future fight against U.S. forces. And the more time that passes, the more inconceivable it will become.
The war by all accounts is over. Why then is such an alleged deal not becoming evident? Stratfor's sources say it is because no one involved wants the agreements to become known. For instance, Washington would not want this to become public knowledge, because maintaining mystery about what happened will help keep Iraqis and Arabs in general demoralized and thus easier to manage. The demoralization comes from a widespread belief in the Muslim world that Hussein and all of the Iraqi leadership and armed forces are cowards, are treasonous, and have surrendered in exchange for safety. If it turned out that Hussein, his sons, Aziz and Ramadan were betrayed and then killed, then Arabs at least would be able to harbor hopes that not everything has been lost and new leaders will emerge in Iraq and elsewhere who will stand up to the United States and Israel.
Also, Republican Guard and Special Republican Guard commanders, if they indeed turned on their leaders and gave up Iraq, would not want anyone to find out for fear of being killed in revenge.
Again, this information from Stratfor's sources in German intelligence is unconfirmed. At this point we can only say that it looks no less credible than the idea that Iraq fully collapsed on itself within three weeks of the war. Both theories have merits and downfalls, and nothing is established for sure. In fact, both scenarios could have happened at once: A decision by top RG, SRG and secret services commanders to switch the sides before or during the war may well have led to the collapse of the regime.
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Still waiting.
The British MI-6 played German intelligence like a fiddle during World War II.
When I lived behind the Iron Curtain while serving in the armed forces, and we were say, to get involved in the armed conflict with the West, depending on the situation, we were ready to "take care" of officers and turn around and fight the commie bastards. Thank God, R. Reagan and people power that it did not come to that and the revolution was relatively peaceful. You can't expect all the people to be 100% brainwashed and "loyal" to dictatorships. At the right time the scale flips and the quick end is a reality.
Freep & Roll!
Daisy Cutter
-End of Story-
If this is true, and it's a big if, whatever coalition officer OK'ed the deal should be brought up on charges.
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