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Posted on 07/09/2003 10:23:39 PM PDT by maui_hawaii
Having achieved a military victory in Iraq and with U.S. ground forces engaged in post war operations in that country, Washington is likely to redeploy a sizable proportion of its air and naval power to East Asia, according to the former Commander in Chief of the U.S. Pacific Command.
Speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington on Tuesday, Admiral Dennis Blair noted that while the war in Iraq has had very little direct impact on East Asia, the war had "very important indirect effects."
U.S. Navy carrier battle groups and Air Force expeditionary units no longer needed in such large numbers in Southwest Asia are likely to be redeployed and more frequently assigned in the western Pacific, according to Blair.
This availability of naval and air forces "will give the United States many more options for its force posture in the Pacific," specifically for use in the event that a crisis erupts on the Korean Peninsula or in the Taiwan Strait.
"Naval and air forces would be the primary forces to ensure that China does not successfully coerce or invade Taiwan," said Blair.
Although the precise nature of the redeployments has not yet been revealed, "when the dust settles, there will be more U.S. air and naval power in eastern Asia than in recent years ... this increased level of ready U.S. combat power will enhance already very strong deterrents in the region against aggression," he said.
Mainland China has not ruled out the use of force against Taiwan, however, and there are fears in Taiwan that although the U.S. has pledged to come to the island's aid in the event of mainland aggression, that this military assistance may come too late.
Indeed, Blair himself, testifying before a U.S. House of Representative Committee in March 2002, remarked that in the event of an attack on Taiwan by mainland China, neither the island's own military nor that of the U.S. would be able to prevent a great deal of damage from being caused.
Blair, who was in Taiwan in April to observe military exercises, refused to discuss U.S. response time frames given such a scenario, but noted that U.S. forces based in the western Pacific are "two weeks closer" to any contingency in the region than those located in Hawaii.
As part of efforts by mainland China to modernize its military, which may outpace Taiwan's military by 2010, according to some analysts, the mainland's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has learned lessons from other conflicts, including the 1982 Falkland Islands conflict between the U.K. and Argentina, the first Gulf War of 1991, the conflicts in the Balkans and Afghanistan and most recently the war in Iraq, according to David Finkelstein, director of Project Asia with the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) and a retired U.S. Army Foreign Area Officer for China.
From the recent coalition operations in Iraq, the mainland has learned some valuable lessons, explained Finkelstein, including the value of "smart" weapons, the benefit of deploying a smaller highly trained "professional" military, the primacy of joint services operations, the need for simultaneous "battle space" dominance, effective command and control — C4ISR - capabilities, reliable logistics support and even the need for information superiority. And, while U.S. operations in Iraq, at first, appeared to be in a shambles, another important lesson that mainland China's military will have learned, according to Finkelstein, is that ultimately "flexibility is the key to victory."
Taiwan's military, for its part, needs to undergo a process of reform to improve its "professionalism, organization and know-how," said Finkelstein. "They've got a lot of work to do," he said.
The swift U.S. victory in Iraq may have again demonstrated the preeminence of the U.S. military, even so, U.S. P-3 Orion pilots are no longer extensively trained in anti-submarine warfare (ASW), one skill that may be crucial to the protection of Taiwan, according to Paul Giarra, a senior analyst on Asia-Pacific affairs with Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) and an expert on wargaming regional issues.
Although ASW capabilities should be a priority for Taiwan, to be truly effective "close battlefield coordination between allies" is another essential component that will not be easily achieved, particularly when the unavoidable restrictions placed on the U.S.-Taiwan relationship are taken into account, noted Giarra.
I hear America will permanently station a carrier battle group along with a striker brigade(?) in Hawaii. I can see that major American military assets are slowly redeployed into E. Asia or its immediate vicinity.
On top of this development, there are diplomatic maneuvers, corraling nations in the region to make them participate or support de facto blockade of N. Korea.
By the way, during the state visit to China by S. Korean president Roh, China attempted to pressure S. Korea to endorse Chinese position on Taiwan issue. China may have wanted to use it against America later, insisting that America has to accept it now that another regional players did. I believe that S. Korean did not give any definite word on this, even though the new report I read did not say how it ended.
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FreeRepublic , LLC PO BOX 9771 FRESNO, CA 93794
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It is in the breaking news sidebar! |
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South Korea won't openly come out for China on the Taiwan issue, regardless of how they may feel. South Korea has to keep two sides happy, and they're already doing a fairly poor of it with us. Roh knows that endorsing China won't really win him anything material with the Chinese, and would cost him big time with us.
It's hard to say, however. If North Korea begins to fall, China could move in 'peacekeepers' to ensure that they don't have a united pro-U.S. Korea on their doorstep. A Chinese run North Korea would be infinitely better off, and we'd lose all of our leverage with South Korea. They'd have no need to keep us around, and eventual reunification would be infinitely more likely with a Chinese puppet government.
A few years ago (I think right about the time GW was taking office) there was a 50 year review of the military going on. They studied a long time obviously before reporting to Congress about what we should do for the next 50 years strategy wise.
They pretty much announced the shift back then.
All of this hooplah in Korea about the US pulling out troops was part of the deal, etc.
"Q: This is a question to Secretary Cohen. The U.S. has gained conclusive evidence with regards to the Kunchangri underground facility and the high explosives facility at Yongduk Dong. These were based on soil gatherings from these areas, as well as photograph - satellite photographs. Is this true? If so, would this mean that North Korea is breaking the Geneva agreement? A: (Cohen): First let me indicate that the United States has not taken a position that there is conclusive evidence of a violation of the Agreed Framework. What we have indicated is that there is sufficient reason to suspect that there is a question as to whether or not this might constitute a violation of the Agreed Framework, which is the reason why we're insisting upon having the right to inspect that facility - to satisfy ourselves that the North Koreans are, in fact, complying with the agreement. "
N. Korean crisis is serving as a trigger to implement proposed long-term changes in American military deployment which have been around for a while. The same is also true for Japanese drive to get out of "defense-only" posture. It has been in the works for a long time.
To cite another example, the 9/11 attack precipitated the sweeping change of U.S. military doctrine which were first proposed right after the end of Cold War. This is, as you well know, emphasis on smaller mobile units backed up with array of smart weapons, to put it briefly.
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