[RonDog]

The survey showed that 25 percent of likely voters favored Mr. Bustamante, while 22 percent said Mr. Schwarzenegger was their first choice. Three other Republicans followed the front-runners, with State Senator Tom McClintock picking up 9 percent, Bill Simon Jr. 8 percent and Peter V. Ueberroth 5 percent.

Or, put more precisely, if the "stupid party" ever gets it's act together:

Bustamante - 25%
Schwarzenegger = 22% + McClintock 9% Simon 8% + Ueberroth 5% = 44% = LANDSLIDE!

If the "stupid party" remains true to form:

Bustamante - 25% = winner
Schwarzenegger = 22%
McClintock = 9%
Simon = 8%
Ueberroth = 5%

I prefer NOT to be a good solid conservative LOSER, who FEELS great, but suffers from continued RAT poison.

[deport]

It's still early .... I'd even question the valitiy of this poll as we don't the internals.

[Ichneumon]

Schwarzenegger = 22% + McClintock 9% Simon 8% + Ueberroth 5% = 44% = LANDSLIDE!

Bad logic: You're presuming that if those candidates drop out, every single person who prefered them over Arnold would invariably continue to vote, and vote unanimously for Arnold. Voting dynamics are a lot more complicated than that.

It is pretty likely it would help him, but assuming that he would therefore get the full "44%" is highly unlikely.

If the "stupid party" remains true to form: Bustamante - 25% = winner Schwarzenegger = 22% McClintock = 9% Simon = 8%

This is an even shakier assumption. If all the Republicans stay in the race, it's nearly a certainty that come voting day, a considerable number of backers of the "minor" candidates will throw their votes to whichever Republican is in the lead (Arnold, unless he implodes), in order to avoid exactly the kind of loss you're fearing. You're not the only person who can see the obvious, you know.

[UCAL]

I think that this poll shows very little growth potential for Bustamante and lots of opportunity for the Republican front-runner as the election nears. With several weeks left to go, most voters are sticking with their candidate of choice with the hope that Arnold's campaign will suffer a meltdown due to gaffes or other missteps.

If you remember the 2000 election, Ralph Nader's support dropped precipitously on election day as his supporters decided not to "waste" their votes and pulled the lever for Gore.

If the polls remain frozen at around this level as Election Day nears, look for Arnold to move up rapidly. Yes, there will be a certain percentage of Simon, McClintock and Ueberroth supporters who will stick with their initial preference but significant numbers will swing behind whomever they think will win.

[Jorge]

Or, put more precisely, if the "stupid party" ever gets it's act together:
Bustamante - 25% Schwarzenegger = 22% + McClintock 9% Simon 8% + Ueberroth 5% = 44% = LANDSLIDE!

Unfortunately, I think the Republicans will give the election to the Democrats because they are too busy arguing over who is or isn't conservative enough.

[ambrose]

I'd rather have Governor Bustamante and Proposition 13 than Governor Arnie and see Proposition 13 repealed.

[Austin Willard Wright]

Do you prefer a GOP winner will immediately so do something Bustamente cannot do under current conditions: raises taxes?

[Sabertooth]

I prefer NOT to be a good solid conservative LOSER, who FEELS great, but suffers from continued RAT poison.

RonDog, I would prefer that Arnold make a few substantive statements on the issues, before I'll consider giving my vote to him.

This celebrity "A" (rnold) Team shtick is getting old fast. Warren Buffet and Rob "statutory rape" Lowe? Every time Buffet yaps about our property taxes being too low (code for "repeal Prop #13") a lot of Californians get uneasy, me included.

I was earlier looking for answers to questions about Arnold's positions on Illegal Aliens. Now I need to know if he and his team are thinking about taxing my Mom out of her house.

Arnold needs to start acting like a real candidate this week, or I think his meteor might arc out sooner than you anticipate.

[jethropalerobber]

Schwarzenegger = 22% + McClintock 9% Simon 8% + Ueberroth 5% = 44% = LANDSLIDE!

44% is a landslide?

didn't simon do better than that last fall?

why can't california GOP just accept defeat and move on?

there will be negative blowback from this for GOP around the country.