Some things you don't want to know

I cannot think of a nicer way to die than being struck on the head by a huge asteroid, without warning, obliterated in the twinkling of an eye, along with all my near and dear and most of the rest of humanity. Nobody would be left to grieve for me, and that instantaneous oblivion would leave me no time to grieve for those whom I love. Ah, to cease upon the midnight with no pain. Waydago.

I say "without warning" because a warning would completely destroy the beauty of the Asteroid-Death Experience. It is fine by me if the world is to end on Saturday, March 21, 2014. Just don't tell me about it 11 years in advance.

The more I think about it, the more extraordinary seems the decision of the Near Earth Object Information Centre (NEOIC) to tell us last Tuesday that Asteroid 2003/QQ47, two-thirds of a mile wide and with a mass of about 2.6-billion tons, appeared to be on a collision course for our planet. True, Dr. Alan Fitzsimmons of the NEOIC was at pains to stress the unlikelihood that we would be hit. "I would say that there is no cause for concern at all,'' he said, putting the odds against a strike at 909,000 to one. All I can say is that I was not in the least bit concerned, actually, until Dr. Fitzsimmons came along and told me that this colossal lump of rock was belting towards us at 21 miles per second, threatening to strike with an impact 20 million times greater than the force of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. ("Hi! You're going to be shot! But there's really no cause for concern, because the gunman will almost certainly miss.'')

The warning was all the more remarkable for being so quickly withdrawn. Barely 24 hours after the NEOIC had raised the alarm, word came from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasedena, Calif., that it was all a big mistake. Asteroid 2003/QQ47 was not going to hit us after all -- a view later confirmed by the NEOIC. If it was only a matter of waiting a day to discover whether or not the danger was real, why didn't the experts keep it under their hats until they had more information?

The obvious answer is that the NEOIC exists for the very purpose of frightening timid old ladies out of their wits. That is its raison d'être, and the jobs of its staff depend on it. If they didn't warn us from time to time that the end of the world might be nigh, somebody in the British government would decide that they were not earning their keep.

Kevin Yates, project manager of NEOIC in Leicester, had a rather different explanation. "Openly sharing this sort of information in a nonsensationalist way should help to dispel the popular myth that governments and astronomers would keep the discovery of dangerous asteroids secret,'' he said. "I hope the coverage of this story will give the general public more of a feel for how the assessment of risk evolves over time as more observations are made.''

He did not go on to explain why it was important that the public should have a feel for the evolution of risk-assessment. I would have thought that, should a genuine danger arise, the less we all knew about it, the happier we would be.

I can see the point of the NEOIC's warning us about small asteroids. If it was known that a certain city would be pulverized at lunchtime next Wednesday, the people at the information centre would be performing a valuable service by warning the local residents to pack their bags and get out of its way. But if half the planet is to be destroyed by the equivalent of 20 million Hiroshimas, only the most dreadful harm could come of broadcasting the fact.

You can be sure, for a start, that nothing could be done to deflect the course of an asteroid the size of 2003/QQ47. The idea of firing nuclear missiles at it belongs strictly to the realm of science fiction. It would clearly be impossible, too, to organize the evacuation of an entire hemisphere -- and, anyway, life on the other side of the planet would be insufferable in the nuclear winter that would follow such a catastrophe. Let's face it, all of humanity would be doomed, and no Earthly good could come of tipping us off in advance.

Imagine what would happen if we knew for certain that we would be obliterated on a given date, 11 years hence. The world's financial system would immediately begin to collapse, starting with the pension funds. As doomsday drew closer, civil order would break down everywhere. There would be orgies of rape and looting (assuming that anybody would have bothered to go on making anything worth looting). What might have been a perfect end for billions, left in blissful ignorance to be snuffed out in a split-second, would be transformed by the NEOIC into 11 years of hell. Far better, surely, for the astronomers to keep quiet.

I can see only one justification for issuing a warning. It is a doctrine of my Church that a sinner who repents, even in the moment before death -- "'twixt stirrup and the ground'' -- will be qualified for salvation. Out of Christian charity, therefore, the NEOIC should perhaps give us a few minutes' notice of our doom, so as to allow us to make our peace with our Maker.

I don't know about you, but I have a huge amount to repent for. I think of the mountains of readers' letters that I have left unanswered. I think of the many casual cruelties that I have inflicted by my pen.

But there is no room here to make a full confession of my sins. I asked the people at the NEOIC for a few minutes' notice of my doom. On second thought, could they please make that a few hours?

You can be sure, for a start, that nothing could be done to deflect the course of an asteroid the size of 2003/QQ47.

Doesn't this writer realize that with an 11 year heads up there's no telling what we might be able to do if we have the will to do so?

After all, the Apollo moon mission went from a concept to actuality in less than 10 years, and that was without impending extinction staring us in the face.

For me I'de rather know 11 years ahead of time, especially if nobody else knew, then you could make it fun. :-)

If an asteroid were destined to hit earth in 11 years, it would take 8 years for political leaders to decide to decide to do something, two years of blaming the Republicans for not doing the right thing and another 10 years to do the paperwork, get the required permits and environmental statements and settle with the unions.

I figure we would all be toast before the first environmental impact statement was submitted for "fast track" review.

Meanwhile, I'd be getting my greenhouse together, hooking up my generator, and storing up on chlorine, gasoline, and gunpowder.

The night before Caesar died, at a dinner at Lepidus' house, he was heard to answer the question "what death is the best?" with the instant answer, "an unexpected quick one,".

I completely agree.

8 posted on 09/08/2003 10:01:41 AM PDT by Lee Heggy (Jealousy-The theory that some other fellow has just as little taste.)

Several days notice would be helpful. I would hate to spend the last few days getting caught up on the laundry, grocery shopping, and housecleaning only to have some silly asteroid ruin all the good work. I had rather go the beach or something!

It's not like an asteroid hit would mean certain death. It would cause a lot of devastation in the area of impact (which would be evacuated beforehand). The worst effect would be that the dust kicked up would block out the sun for a few decades. But that would be survivable if we had enough preparation in advance.

Hmm, wasn't anyone suspicious that one day we were all doomed, but the next it was oops? There are old prophecies that claim a comet will destroy the Earth in 2012. At least Shrillary won't get a second term.

;-)

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