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Posted on 10/04/2003 5:18:47 AM PDT by RJCogburn
Saddam Hussein may have possessed weapons of mass destruction and hid them, the chief U.S. weapons inspector says. Or the Iraqi dictator may have had the weapons and moved them outside the country just before the war. Or perhaps Saddam never had them at all, and just bluffed to appear strong.
Weapons inspector David Kay cited those three theories — and a few others — on Friday as possible answers to why his survey team has so far failed to uncover any weapons of mass destruction inside Iraq
Iraqis interviewed by his team have provided information pointing to each of those theories, Kay said.
One, more unusual, theory also has some backing, although it's shakier: that Saddam's scientists were fooling Saddam himself — and were simply too afraid to tell him he didn't possess any weapons, he said.
"Saddam had become so isolated, so the argument goes, that in the last couple of years they consciously told him they were doing things that they in fact were not doing, just to continue to be rewarded by him," Kay said.
One other theory — that Iraq had arrangements to produce its weapons outside of the country — has little evidence to support it, he said.
"We have about five to six working hypotheses that we routinely — actually every Saturday afternoon — review as to how our data is fitting ... We don't actually have a favorite," Kay told reporters.
His theorizing came as President Bush said the U.S.-led war on Iraq was justified despite the failure to find weapons so far. Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell both contended that a vial of botulinum bacteria Kay's team found in Iraq is one strong piece of evidence of Saddam's weapons intent.
"The report (by Kay's team) states that Saddam Hussein's regime had a clandestine network of biological laboratories, a live strain of deadly agent botulinum, sophisticated concealment efforts and advanced design work on prohibited longer-range missiles," Bush said before starting a daylong trip to Milwaukee.
But Kay said the vial had been stored for safekeeping in an Iraqi scientist's refrigerator since 1993. He offered no evidence it had been used in a weapons program during the last decade.
Kay also said American weapons hunters had found no evidence that Iraq has recently tried to import a semi-refined form of uranium from the African nation of Niger or anywhere else.
Bush cited that claim in his State of the Union address in January, although administration officials later acknowledged it was based on shaky intelligence and should not have been included.
Kay's search teams did locate documents suggesting another country in Africa — which Kay refused to identify — had offered uranium to Iraq, although it does not appear the deal went through. "We don't have any evidence it moved beyond what was probably an unsolicited offer," Kay said.
He also said many scientists are still afraid to work with the Americans because of security concerns, noting that two scientists working with U.S. officials had been shot — one fatally — by unknown assailants since the war.
"It's true, two who have collaborated with us, one has been assassinated after literally hours after meeting with one of the ISG (Iraq Survey Group) officers. Another took six bullet wounds and it's amazing to me that he is still alive," Kay said.
Powell, in citing the discovery of the vial of bacteria and signs of long-range missile plans, said he is "more convinced by the Kay report that we did the right thing."
"Do you think vials of botulism should constitute a weapon of mass destruction?" Powell asked reporters. " ... They never lost that capability. They never lost that intent."
State Department spokesman Richard Boucher added: "You kill people with botuli. They have no other use."
The Iraqi scientist who had the vial had been given it for safekeeping at his home by another, more senior scientist, in 1993, Kay said. The scientist initially had other samples, most of which he quickly returned because of concerns for his family's safety.
"He was actually storing them in his refrigerator," Kay said. "He had small children."
Although tests showed that the one vial of bacteria that the scientist kept was still viable, Kay offered no evidence it had been used in a weapons program during the last decade.
The vial contained a live bacteria that make botulinum toxin — a toxin that can be used as a biological weapon. But experts say there are many, complicated steps between possessing a vial of bacteria and producing enough of the toxin to create a weapon. That would require relatively sophisticated equipment and processing.
The bacteria itself is a common cause of food poisoning.
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FreeRepublic , LLC PO BOX 9771 FRESNO, CA 93794
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If I had a nickel for every biased post on the WMD issue alone in the past six months, I could buy a nice new car.
At some point they have to say, "They're not here".
You are correct, but they're still at bat. Kay's report was the equivalent of the 2-2 pitch. And Kay himself admitted that they may not be in Iraq, or that they could be found. Iraq is the size of California.
I personally don't care if WMD are not found. The evidence of their existence, and of their attempts to deceive the UN inspectors, are more than sufficient evidence -- for me. Unfortunately the WMD dance has to continue for the benefit of those who won't care anyway. But they will care if we stop looking. I guess you could call it a necessary waste of time.
Then when he didn't use them - and really, he had nothing to lose by not loosing them on the invaders - I did begin to question whether or not he had them.
I think it's silly to try and keep this sort of technology out of the hands of those we don't like. It's impossible: it's like trying to shove toothpaste back into the tube.
I think a better approach would be to make it absolutely clear that if Iran or North Korea (for example) wants to build them they can. But if they have any inkling about using them on us, we'll deploy nukes in a heartbeat. And our intelligence should be good enough to ensure it happens. Otherwise, we are going to be fighting skirmishes and wars all over the place, without reaping the benefits of empire.
You have to be familiar with the introductory course "Hypocrisy 101".
Guns in your house without bullets in them are weapons. But botulinum toxin not in a bomb is not a weapon. And bombs designed for bio agents, but not containing them, are also not weapons.
I'm insulted that liberals find me so dumb.
Dunno, buffy, but it would be odd, IMO, to think we can locate, track, identify WMDs in Iraq before the war, but miss such as you describe.
Actually the purpose of hunting down the WMD is to try to keep them from getting into the wrong hands. If it were just to prove a point, that point has been proven, in spades, already, and the Bush haters will always wear blinders and come up with some sorry excuse for why this particular find doesn't matter.
We may have lost that chance by going to the UN. I guess I'm saying perhaps we know we likely won't find the actual weapons, but have to go through the motions to appease those over here who would be apopleptic otherwise. We've already more than vindicated the WMD aspect of justification for the war (which was not the sole reason, though the liberals assert that it is, precisely because it is the most difficult-to-prove assertion).
I think Bush and company were as sure as they could possibly be of WMD presence and/or intent to produce them. Sure enough to employ the pre-emption doctrine. But he probably allowed the media to over-spin the relative importance of finding WMDs. Not that it would have been an easy job, or even a possible one. If he had made more speeches, liberals may well have tuned out, rolled their eyes, and made snotty remarks about warmongering.
Of course, the CIA (unlike Rummy) was always sensibly sceptical about these claims. Seems like they were right after all.
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