Having been forced to study a lot of statistics in college and graduate school (twice), the John Jay report has always left me with a nagging question:
Was the decline in the latter part of the report chronologically due to recruiting a better quality of seminarians, or was the effect a result of the possible fact that the crop of abuse cases from the later years hadn’t “ripened” (for lack of a better term) yet? I’d love to see an extensive follow-up that adds newly-discovered cases to those that had previously been exposed as occurring during the later years of the period of the report.
As well, looking at the evidence coming out in light of the mccarrick demonacy, I wonder whether the homosexuals just focused more intently on screwing folks over 18, as the demon mccarrick seems to have done. Observation can change behavior, if not always underlying causes.
Thus, in 1969, mccarrick was screwing little boys. In 1999, he was screwing over-18 seminarians. One is statutory rape. The other may be dressed up as consensual sex.
I think that gays quite joining up because the broader culture was accepting them more and more. I think the steep downward trend after the late 70s/early 80s is because the gays stopped hiding in the priesthood because they didn’t have to do that anymore, they could be open in many jobs and have actual communities in the open.
I think the older gay priests weren’t replaced when they died, thus the decline. I don’t think homosexuals have enough discipline to stick to adults, at least in general.
FReegards