I understand that legally Putin can’t go a general mobilization unless he recasts this from a “Special Military Operation” to a “War”.
America may have been withholding long range missiles from Ukraine because attacks on the Russian homeland would give Putin the grounds to recast this to a “war”.
If Putin does a general mobilization anyway, it removes at least one of the objections to giving Ukraine long range weapons.
If Putin uses a tactical nuke. Then America has a choice. Don’t respond, and we encourage every rogue state to do likewise, China, NK, Iran.
I heard a retired general say that one of the options America has to the use of a tactical nuke is to quickly destroy Russia’s black sea fleet with F35’s. And there are some strategic military and naval basis that would likely be quickly destroyed.
There are already calls in the Kremlin and St. Petersburg for Putin to resign and even to charge Putin with Treason over the Ukraine war. I doubt Putin could survive the use of a nuke. And if he did the punishment from the US and NATO would be severe. Also India and China would strongly object to such an action.
India’s Mobi publicly rebuked Putin for the Ukraine war yesterday.
When you start exchanging long range missiles it tends to level the NATO/Russian playing field. This started Ukraine v Russia, Warsaw Pact weaponry v Warsaw Pact weaponry. NATO has escalated exponentially by introducing unlimited quantities of NATO’s best military tech. Russia has yet to escalate. What Russia was strongly hinting at (eerily similar to the hints just prior to invading Ukraine) earlier this week was striking out into bordering NATO countries. Personally, I think Putin will conventionally but massively attack NATO staging areas in Poland. Many NATO troops and civilians will be killed. Putin will assure NATO of more of the same IF they continue the proxy war. He will justify this, in my opinion rightly, by citing the NATO weapons used to kill Russians in Russia. He will also dot the legal I with this argument for his general mobilization. At that point DC and Brussels have a decision, escalate and watch the world conflagration or tell Zelensky, “Let’s negotiate”.