Posted on 11/22/2007 8:25:31 AM PST by George W. Bush
The Ron Paul Factor
By Matt Towery
Thursday, November 22, 2007
As we continue to poll and observe the various states involved in the early caucus/primary battles for the Republican presidential nomination, one thing is becoming increasingly clear to me: While Ron Paul may lag behind most of his GOP competitors in the polls, the intensity of devotion from his supporters makes his candidacy deserving of more attention than it's gotten to date.
His sometimes-quirky mannerisms and oddball demeanor fly in the face of what most Republicans traditionally look for in their presidential nominees. And his comments startle many for their bluntness and contrariness to long-running establishment GOP thinking.
That's exactly why Paul could have an unexpected impact not only on the Republican nomination process, but also on the November general election as well.
Consider that over 600 people turned out for a rally for Paul in Reno, Nevada, recently. The media described the crowd as a mixed group that included many college students.
That's another indicator of the potential impact of the Paul campaign. I recall in 1980 when establishment Republicans and conservatives were backing George H.W. Bush, John Connally or Howard Baker for president.
But on college campuses, the birth of the modern College Republicans movement was feeding off of the support of frustrated college students for the maverick in the race, Ronald Reagan.
Don't get me wrong. I am not predicting Paul will pull a Reagan and somehow beat out the GOP's establishment contenders. I will suggest that Paul may fatally damage several potential candidates, and perhaps the entire Republican Party, if he breaks away and runs as a legitimate third-party candidate after Tsunami Tuesday's primaries in early February.
Paul blends a unique mixture of cynicism over the health of the economy, loud opposition to the erosion of civil liberties, plus a stand as the only GOP candidate who's flat-out opposed to the war in Iraq.
Those issues unite a seemingly disparate group of voters who collectively feel that 20 years of the presidency being shared between two families -- the Clintons and Bushes -- is more than enough. They are voters who have found their mouthpiece in Paul, who's willing to voice their frustration over Republicans, Democrats and whoever and whatever else represents "The Establishment."
Paul could be deadly to someone like conservative Mike Huckabee, who is steadily rising in many polls but can't be assured of the devoted turnout of his supporters, as Paul almost surely can.
Paul's words have also taken away some of the ink that should have gone to Fred Thompson, who entered the race as the supposed "I'll say anything and throw caution to the wind" candidate, but whose measured and often boring campaign speeches have consistently fallen short of their billing.
Unlike many GOP candidates, Paul hasn't tried to have his cake and eat it, too, on the subject of President Bush. He has little or nothing charitable to say about the president. And with new revelations coming from Bush's own press secretary about "who knew what when" in the CIA leak scandal, Paul's distance seems all the wiser.
How do I think Ron Paul will impact 2008? It's at least possible that he'll fare better than expected -- and not just eventually in scattered primaries, but as early as next week in the much-awaited CNN/YouTube debate in Florida. Paul is often quicker and less plastic than his counterparts, and could do well in such a format.
But where will Ron Paul really do his damage? It could be by seriously damaging the Republican establishment his followers so despise.
How? By running as a third-party candidate. In critical "Red States," where the vote may turn on just a small percent, Paul could block any hope of a GOP victory.
That would likely mean a Hillary Clinton presidency. But it might also mean a true remake of the Republican Party for the future. The abandonment of the get-along, go-along Republican Party is something that many, including and beyond Paul's supporters, would like to see.
Matt Towery is a former National Republican legislator of the year and author of Powerchicks: How Women Will Dominate America.
So you don’t disagree with my assessment of Ron Paul or his core supporters?
“The GOP is committing political suicide, a return to the views of Ron Paul, adherence to a Constitutional gov’t, is the only thing that will save it.”
That’s absurd. The last poll I saw had Ron Paul pulling about 35% against Hillary. That’s not ‘saving’ anything.
You’re assuming we know the amount. I can safely say that it didn’t put a scratch in the RP record, if that’s what you want to know. When I logged on that morning after making my own donation at the campaign site, the pledge count read something like 85 or 89. It’s possible that other pledge-makers weren’t counted because a reply to an automated e-mail was required to make count of your pledge, but I don’t think it would be any drastic amount.
Honestly I set my expectations very low within a couple days of the announcement, for several reasons - not really a good date for it, it was rushed out in too short of a time, the people doing it seemed terribly inexperienced, Fred’s support isn’t THAT net-centric, etc. (I believe a more effective way of getting donations for a candidate like Fred would be for the campaign to mail detailed literature asking for small contributions, as I understand Reagan did in 80.)
I really haven’t seen so many people be so compassionate about their candidate as I have with the RP supporters. Some can be creeps, but all candidates have creeps. He has some real solid supporters while other candidates have supporters who are ready to cut and run because the polls don’t look good, yet not one vote has been cast.
Did you see this RP graph on the daily contributions coming in?
http://ronpaulgraphs.com/index.html
Very interesting to let the world as well as your competitors to know what cash you have on hand.
I am not aware of other candidates doing this. It was fun to watch on the 5th as the tallies kept updating every few minutes.
I am sure it would have been nice for you guys to see how the fundraising went.
Another effect is that the echo chamber is greater with RP's support because it is virtually all on the internet, with constant reinforcement of ideas like 'only Ron Paul can save us from the NAU/CFR/whatever.' It is not hard to understand why people who would accept those as serious and immediate threats would have such passion.
I meant relative to the rest of his supporters.
‘Second place is first loser.’ Knowing that you aren’t getting the donations that ‘even that one fringe guy with a third the poll numbers’ isn’t much of an incentive to share the information. The only incentive I can think of is, like you said, watching real-time increases in money raised could encourage others to give.
“watching real-time increases in money raised could encourage others to give.”
That is/was the best thing about watching it go up. Seeing the numbers move quickly I would say encouraged others that were on the fence to jump in and participate.
Mitchell, keep the link I gave you and see the next big fundraiser on the 16th of Dec. May encourage you to jump in because of the excitement. LOL.
That’s absurd. The last poll I saw had Ron Paul pulling about 35% against Hillary. That’s not ‘saving’ anything.
Gee, why bother hold the election, we can just let the polls tell us who wins.
Shut up-we are so!
Thompson is a good candidate, but he seems to lack any real desire to win the Presidency.
How did that work out for you?
I know, don't bother the Paulbots with facts, they have their dogma and they are clinging too them.
The notion that Paul does anything to hurt Hillary is nonsense. Just more of the mindless blather spewed forth from the Paulbots in order to avoid having to make any serious analysis of Paul’s candidacy. For example, still waiting for even one Paulbot to post a serious, thoughtful response to this. So far all I get is slogans and bile, not ONE serious answer.
How and what would a Paul Administration do anything?
HERE is an example of an answer a serious Presidential Candidate would give. Notice NONE of Paul’s answers ever fit this format. Instead they are all mindless sloganeering and/or bile filled ranting at everyone and everything.
Slogans are not solutions. Electing a President is serious business and should not be treated like a high school popularity contest. See to answer “how” Paul would have to be saying something like this below. The whole problem with him is his whole campaign is based on misdirection and emotional hysteria, not a serious rational discussion of the issues of the day.
Paul might be taken seriously by thinking people if he said something like this instead of merely spewing slogans.
On Federal Spending. Federal Spending is out of control. To put our fiscal house in order my Administration will work with the Congress to pass a Balanced Budget Amendment to the US Constitution. I will work with Congress to abolish base line budgeting, eliminate earmarks, impose strict pay as you go rules for new spending. In my 1st term, I will reduce the federal deficit to zero and return our Govt budget to surplus. To achieve that goal, I will impose a mandatory 2% increase cap on all executive agencies budgets, require a top to bottom review of all agency functions and work with the Congress to reduce or eliminate departments x-y-z.
That is just the 1st step. Serious budget reform can only take place when we reform both the tax code and the systems of entitlements we have created. There has been no serious Social Security or Medicare reform since the systems were created! Obvious a system that is 75 years old in one case, and 40 years old in the other are way over due for an overhaul.
To overhaul these systems I will introduce legislation to the Congress that will privatize the following parts of both the Medicare and Social Security systems...
That is an example of answers that tell us HOW a politician plans to do something. Nothing in PaulÂ’s campaign does any of this. All he does is spew reckless demagoguery based on Talk Radio culled slogans designed to push the emotional hot buttons of a certain fringe segments of the US population Too bad for them we don’t elect a President simply for spewing the best sounding rhetoric on this emotional hot button issue or that one. We elect a President on the base of his whole agenda.
Stating that all he has only offered is "blather" or has not offer serious, thought-out avenues to address these issues is simply not accurate when you consider the specific legislation that he has proposed and supported for many, many years.
As I said, I support Duncan Hunter, but I have also met this man and know him not only to be a good American, but a very thoughtful one and active in what he believes to be the best path for our republic.
“Gee, why bother hold the election, we can just let the polls tell us who wins.”
There you go, being absurd again. But let me ask you this, how did ole Ron do the last time he ran for president? Two maybe three percent?
Ron Paul ran in 1988 as the Libertarian candidate.
This time he would be the GOP candidate.
Also, many Americans are now seeing what Ron Paul is warning us about, the erosion of our personal freedoms, national debt, debasing of the currancy, etc,and would want a return to the Constitution.
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