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To: enumerated
Please tell my liberal neighbors and co-workers. They have been poised to vote for any democrat since the day after the 2016 election. You saw the enthusiasm on their side in the 2018 midterms. You do remember the dems flipped the House?

Landslide? No. This is a 50/50 country and is still a 50/50 country. It will be close once again.

37 posted on 10/24/2019 1:01:53 AM PDT by Dave W
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To: Dave W

The Democrats were expected to do MUCH better than they did in 2018. Historically, the midterms do heavily favor the party not in the White House. It was supposed to be a blue wave - they were supposed to win the Senate too, but we actually picked up a few seats.

Also, when I say “landslide”, I mean electoral college, of course. Something approaching 400.

The popular vote always seems close in two way race - around 57% is about the most you can hope for, even in an electoral landslide. That is because about three quarters of the voters are so uninformed they are just guessing - they may as well be flipping a coin. So, as with a coin toss, each party statistically gets half of the 75%, or 37.5%, effectively canceling each other out.

It’s really only around 25% - the rational voters - that is in play, so that if Trump really kills it, and wins 3/4 of that 25%, or 18.75% - that’s a pretty lopsided win - but it would still only give him 37.5 plus 18.75 = 56.25%.

Obviously, the percentages I used were just for illustration purposes - I’m just trying to explain, statistically, why the popular vote in a two way race is always so close, even in a so-called “landslide”.

It’s because there are so many low information voters who tend to vote almost randomly, and thus divide 50/50 - so they cancel each other out.


52 posted on 10/24/2019 11:10:25 AM PDT by enumerated
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