[Publius6961]

Genetic studies estimate that Homo sapiens arose about 200,000 years ago, so the new research brings the fossil record more in line with that, said John Fleagle of Stony Brook University in New York, an author of the study.

Isn't it safe to say that 200,000 is still an educated guess?
As I recall, "Lucy" is about 6 million years. That leaves quite a gap and quite a story about the possible timing and development of the transition(s)...

[RadioAstronomer]

bttt for later read.

[Anna1345]

Lucy is 3.6 - 3 million years old and belongs to the Australopethicus category, not homo sapien.

[Alter Kaker]

Isn't it safe to say that 200,000 is still an educated guess?

The evidence suggests that homo sapiens arose around 200,000 years ago. Obviously the exact date isn't clear, but this is an example of evolutionary science predicting results before they're discovered.

As I recall, "Lucy" is about 6 million years. That leaves quite a gap and quite a story about the possible timing and development of the transition(s)...

3.2 million years, but yes, there's a huge difference between Lucy and early homo sapiens, but its not a "gap". We know about homo ergaster, homo habilis, etc. in the intervening years.

[DannyTN]

Except that Leakey found evidence of modern humans at a level lower than that of australopithecines.

AUSTRALOPITHECINES

Skull 1470

[Stultis]

Isn't it safe to say that 200,000 is still an educated guess?
As I recall, "Lucy" is about 6 million years. That leaves quite a gap and quite a story about the possible timing and development of the transition(s)...

No gap. Lucy was an Australopithcine, and a fairly early on at that. Modern humans followed (and I believe overlap) archaic sapiens, and archaic sapiens followed (and I believe overlap) Homo erectus.

[Publius Scipio]

Isn't it safe to say that 200,000 is still an educated guess?

Yes, the terms 'reasonably good argument', 'more likely than not' and 'estimate' make that clear.

[infocats]

I'm not sure that Lucy was Homo Sapiens...I believe she was Homo Erectus, a distant predecessor.

[El Oviedo]

See my comment in #417.