I will note that AT THE TIME of the SUMATRAN QUAKE--THE FIRST DAY--I felt then that it was just a precursor. That a much bigger one will hid Indonesia most probably and at least within the Pacific rim within months.
I thought within 90 days. That turned out to be wrong.
But I'm convinced that we are not out of the woods yet by a long shot.
And, a recent published article by a group of serious qualified geologists examining the fault after the quake are still trying to sort through--did the quake leave the fault greatly relieved or greatly more locked up more dangerously.
My reading of that article was that they were hesitant to say, yet, but that it was beginning to appear that it left it more dangerously locked up at key points . . . one could say even, more dangerously cocked.
And then, this week, I got a doc via Dimitru Duduman's grandson who seems to also be graced with prophetic dreams/visions . . . asserting that Yellostone will light off sometime between 2005 and 2012. I believe that's true. The doc insisted that it would make the last time Yellowstone went off look like a burp. That's a sobering thought.
Certainly interesting times, regardless.
There's a lot of subduction zone off Sumatra, which is a big island, that didn't break....actually (due to logistical reasons, ease of getting to the site, Indian Government travel restrictions) that section was much more heavily studied by geologists..most prominently Kerry Sieh...than the section that did break.
It basically starts immediately south of the area of the December quake. It ruptured in a massive quake in 1833 and in a smaller quake that preceeded it in 1897. Based on the length of the area it would produce a quake in the 8.5-9 range, not bigger than the December quake. Even before the December quake it had been considered extremely dangerous.
It could pop tomorrow or in 20 years. That the December quake increased stress on it is a pretty valid theory (recently published in Nature.) The orientation of that segment would mean very small or no tsunami in India, Sri Lanka, and Thailand but would hit Indonesia very hard again (in a densely populated area) and also give NW Australia more of a hit. Potentially Madagascar too.
The odds of Yellowstone erupting in our lifetimes is vanishingly small. Despite what a lot of kook sites claim, there's no particular evidence the entire Caldera is getting ready to erupt.
"I got a doc via Dimitru Duduman's grandson who seems to also be graced with prophetic dreams/visions . . . asserting that Yellostone will light off sometime between 2005 and 2012. I believe that's true."
Dimitru's grandson has got the dates wrong. According to my prophetic visions/dreams/delusions the correct date range is between 2008 and 2009. We'll see who is a better prophet, Dimitru's grandson or me. Only time will tell, and it will.