Puerto Rico’s status lies in the hands of Congress

The status question, after years on the back burner, will dominate Puerto Rican politics this year. The event that signaled the launch of intense campaigning on the issue by all three of the island’s political parties was the publication in Washington last month of a report commissioned by President Bush.

The report, compiled by an interagency task force, recommended that there should be a federal plebiscite this year on whether Puerto Rico wants to maintain its current status as a territory or commonwealth (estado libre asociado, ELA) of the United States or choose a nonterritorial alternative.

In the latter case, the report suggested that the U.S. Congress, which has responsibility for Puerto Rican affairs through the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, should organize another plebiscite, offering voters a choice between statehood, on the one hand, and independence or free association with the United States, on the other.

These recommendations, predictably, have had a mixed reception. While the opposition Partido Nuevo Progresista (PNP) and Partido Independentista Puertorriqueno (PIP) welcomed the report, the ruling Partido Popular Democratico (PPD) rejected it because the options put forward do not include an enhanced version of the present status.

With both sides lobbying Congress to get across their views, Gov. Anibal Acevedo Vila claims to be confident that the U.S. legislature will not turn the report into law this year.

Acevedo Vila returned to San Juan on Jan. 19 from a meeting with his main ally in Congress, Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), to proclaim that there was widespread opposition, or indifference, in Congress to the report’s recommendations and that the proposal to hold a federal plebiscite was doomed.

Menendez, a Cuban-American, is a member of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, and thus in a position to know. The minority leader in the House, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), seems to share Menendez’s doubts about the White House report.

However, the governor’s announcement is unlikely to put off the PNP, which also has some useful Washington contacts.

The party is convinced that statehood will become a reality this year and is preparing a campaign based on the argument that Puerto Rico’s “colonial” status is against the spirit of the U.S. constitution. The PNP strategy, devised by the party’s president, former Gov. Pedro Rossello, consists of pushing through the Puerto Rican legislature a resolution urging the U.S. Congress to turn into law the recommendations of the task force’s report, as the Puerto Rico Democracy Act, and then persuading Congress to act on the resolution.

As the PNP has a majority in both houses, and the island’s resident commissioner in Washington, who has a voice but not a vote in the House of Representatives, is also from the PNP, this process is already well under way. The island’s Senate passed the resolution Jan. 18, with the PPD minority voting against, and it now has to be approved by the lower house.

The resolution provides for the creation of an 18-member joint committee of the two houses to handle all aspects of the status issue. Rossello has his eye on the chairmanship of this committee.

The PNP is also planning direct action, in the form of a pro-statehood crusade to Congress early this month, led by the PNP vice president, Miriam Ramirez de Ferrer, bearing a 100,000-signature petition, and a 15-day march around the island in the second half of February.

The PIP, which represents the views of about 5 percent of Puerto Rican voters, is equally enthusiastic about the White House report, calling it a “mortal blow” to the ELA and a first step toward the end of colonialism. Like the PNP, it wants the federal plebiscite suggested in the report to take place this year. However, if the U.S. Congress fails to act, it is calling for a constitutional assembly to be elected in the island.

Acevedo Vila has also called for such an assembly in the past, without success. His argument is that what he calls a “true process of self-determination” should begin on the island, not in Washington, but the White House report “insults” Puerto Ricans by failing to provide for such a process.

The report takes the view that the 1952 ELA accord is a transitory arrangement (which is also the PNP’s position), rather than a pact that can be modified by agreement between the two sides (the PPD view). Acevedo Vila argues that voters should be offered the option of supporting a modified version of commonwealth status, giving the island’s government greater control over such areas as federal appointments, taxation and trade negotiations.

Rejecting calls from some PPD politicians to manufacture a “crisis” over the issue, Acevedo Vila appears reassured that Congress would not support legislation on Puerto Rican status that does not enjoy a consensus in the island itself and is not backed by the governor.

A continuing feud between Rossello and Resident Commissioner Luis Fortuño, and a long-running tussle for control of the Puerto Rican Senate between Rossello and a group of PNP senators led by the current president of the upper house, Kenneth McClintock, complicates the PNP’s campaign.

Fortuño refuses to return to the island to attend PNP executive meetings chaired by Rossello, arguing that his time is better spent cultivating Republican contacts in Washington.

Despite his reservations about Fortuño, Rossello felt obliged Jan. 18 to appoint him as the PNP’s official liaison with the Republican Party. (Former Gov. Carlos Romero Barcelo has been given the same role with the Democrats.)

Underlying the power struggle between Rossello and Fortuño is competition for advantage ahead of the 2008 elections. Rossello sees a successful statehood campaign as the best way of gearing up the party machine to back his candidacy. However, McClintock’s group could yet deny him chairmanship of the status committee.

Meanwhile, Acevedo Vila has been trying to recover the political initiative by submitting a long-awaited tax-reform proposal to the island’s legislature in mid-January. However, the PNP majority is determined to block it — not least because the measures would give the governor additional resources for high-profile public works ahead of the next election campaign.

The formal reason the PNP has given for rejecting the reforms is that they contain no provision for reducing public spending and would only benefit the wealthy at the expense of the middle classes. Acevedo Vila badly needs the tax reforms, as the credit-rating agencies have threatened to downgrade Puerto Rican government bonds if they are not forthcoming.

The focus will be on Washington for most of this year, as Puerto Rico’s fate lies in the hands of Congress. The most likely outcome is that the task-force report will not become law.

Oxford Analytica is an international consulting firm providing strategic analysis on world events for business and government leaders. See www.oxan.com.

"PR has a legislature, doesn't it? Does it conduct business in English? What about the courts? Is English taught in the schools as the basic language or a second language"?

The Puerto Rico legislature has conducted business in English, but it normally does so in Spanish. There's no prohibition as to what language to use. Would you believe that the PR Senate President is named Kenneth McClintock?

"I don't advocate treating PR any differently than other states, but what I don't want is another Quebec situation in our country."

Quebec is nearly half of Canada, in territory and population. There's just no comparison.

"Do most Puerto Ricans speak English. I must admit that all that I know speak English (most from the military)."

I wouldn't go as far as saying that most Puerto Ricans speak English, but it is a mandatory and primary subject, along with Spanish, in all schools. Whether people use it or not is another matter. But, for instance, I have many continentals in my company that have lived here for years and have never had to learn Spanish. This is in the San Juan metropolitan area.

"Why don't PR people want statehood?"

Close to 50% of the electorate favor the pro-statehood party. The other bigger block of voters who support the status quote get nearly the other half. These people are the biggest obstacle. It is my opinion that they just want to keep the IRS out of their lives. I, of course, have no lost love for the IRS but this is not a matter of taxation. We are already taxed by the "federales" (social sec, medicare, unemployment). This is a matter of civil rights. Four million Americans live under an apartheid system, ruled at the whim of Congress.

While residents of Puerto Rico do not pay federal taxes, the lack of voting representation in Congress means that residents of Puerto Rico get far less in transfer payments than residents of any state, and that the government of Puerto Rico gets far less federal funding than the government of any state.

Few mainland Americans think very much about Puerto Rico. That gap in their attentions may end only when they wake up to discover that the flag has 51 stars. Because of legislation now quietly wending its way through Congress with the support of the Republican leadership, decisions made on the island in the next year or so could have profound consequences for the future of Puerto Rico as well as for the United States as a whole. The House of Representatives may vote as early as this week on a bill to set up a plebiscite on the island's political status. Passage of this act by both houses, plus the President's signature, would oblige the U.S. government to honor whichever of three options Puerto Rico's voters choose: maintaining the island's present commonwealth status, independence or entry into the Union as the 51st state. WHERE'S THE DEBATE? The legislation has gotten this far without even the pretense of a national debate about whether it is in America's interest to attempt to digest, as a state, a territory whose inhabitants are predominantly Spanish-speaking, far poorer on average than mainland Americans, and more heavily dependent on federal welfare and transfer payments than the residents of the poorest current states. Moreover, the island has a deeply rooted national independence movement -- though recent polls show that to be at a relative ebb. Puerto Rico's political status has been an issue since the island was ceded by Spain after the U.S. victory in the Spanish-American War of 1898. Puerto Ricans were made U.S. citizens in 1917, but residents there have no right to vote in presidential elections or to send representatives to Congress. Puerto Rican Gov. Pedro J. Rossello sees next year's centennial of Puerto Rico under the U.S. flag as the appropriate occasion for changing the island's legal status. Like his New Progressive Party, he wants Puerto Ricans to choose statehood to replace commonwealth status. The statehood forces are gaining ground -- unfortunately, for all the wrong reasons. When Puerto Ricans last voted on the issue, in 1993, the commonwealth forces prevailed over statehood by a very narrow 2 percent. But statehood advocates have been pounding across the message that their way means greatly expanded eligibility for federal benefits. FEDERAL CORNUCOPIA "If it were a state," writes former Gov. Carlos Romero-Barcelo in his frankly titled book, "Statehood Is for the Poor," "Puerto Rico would be absolutely assured of enormous amounts of federal money -- money the island needs in order to come to grips with its many problems. But without statehood, such large quantities of money are going to be increasingly hard to come by." Indeed, while Puerto Ricans now pay no federal income taxes, half the island's 3.7 million inhabitants receive Food Stamps -- a rate considerably higher than that of Mississippi, the poorest mainland state. Puerto Rico has long had a high rate of out-of-wedlock births -- a problem which seems to worsen as Puerto Ricans move closer to the American mainstream. An astounding 59.4 percent of Puerto Rican children born on the U.S. mainland are born to unwed mothers, a rate twice the (dismayingly high) national average and much greater than any other Hispanic group in the U.S. Unemployment on the island is over 13 percent, more than twice the national figure. PRIDE IN LANGUAGE Then there is language -- a symbol of culture and probably the most volatile issue of all. According to the Census Bureau, only 25 percent of the island's population is fluent in English, and that percentage hasn't risen in years. Some Republicans hope to expand the use of English on the island, but history suggests this will be difficult. Indeed, Puerto Ricans have a history of pride in their language and of tough resistance to measures extending the use of English in their schools. Passage of the plebiscite bill in Congress could very well launch Puerto Rico on an inexorable march toward becoming the 51st state. Why, then, is there so little caution, so little reflection by the Washington political establishment on the potential pitfalls of such union? The independence movement -- while now able to garner only about 5 percent in the opinion polls -- has always had a substantial backing among Puerto Rico's intellectual and artistic elite. The pro-independence forces have resorted to violence on several occasions, and Puerto Ricans continue to revere as nationalist heroes several martyr-figures whom most Americans would view simply as terrorists. The friction over language and culture that Puerto Rican statehood would surely generate might well inflame the independentista spirit -- with unforseeable consequences. Perhaps Puerto Ricans might benefit -- materially at least -- from the increased access to federal transfer payments that statehood would bring. But what would be the impact on the the U.S.? A relatively poor Caribbean island state, with a high illegitimacy rate, would almost certainly elect to Congress liberal Democrats, who would be committed to higher taxes and increased social spending. Such legislators could be expected to support the extension of bilingual education, and might well become a powerful institutional voice for making Spanish a quasi-official language of the U.S. GOP FECKLESSNESS There are, we know, an array of arguments both for and against statehood (and the other options) that haven't been addressed here; we have stressed the reasons for hesitation and caution. The mystery is why the Republican-controlled Congress is ready to take such a major and probably irrevocable step affecting the future of the U.S. with so little public debate and reflection. At week's end, Speaker Newt Gingrich's office had no thought to offer on the matter. We believe that the looming vote on Puerto Rico's status is yet another sign of how the congressional GOP has lost its way. The current leadership seems more interested in trying to placate the liberal Washington establishment -- or hatching schemes it imagines are popular with minority voters -- than in protecting the interests of the voters who elected it. This is a feckless way to guide America's destiny.

--- SM (NY Post 1997)

Few mainland Americans think very much about Puerto Rico. That gap in their attentions may end only when they wake up to discover that the flag has 51 stars.

Because of legislation now quietly wending its way through Congress with the support of the Republican leadership, decisions made on the island in the next year or so could have profound consequences for the future of Puerto Rico as well as for the United States as a whole.

The House of Representatives may vote as early as this week on a bill to set up a plebiscite on the island's political status. Passage of this act by both houses, plus the President's signature, would oblige the U.S. government to honor whichever of three options Puerto Rico's voters choose: maintaining the island's present commonwealth status, independence or entry into the Union as the 51st state.

WHERE'S THE DEBATE?

The legislation has gotten this far without even the pretense of a national debate about whether it is in America's interest to attempt to digest, as a state, a territory whose inhabitants are predominantly Spanish-speaking, far poorer on average than mainland Americans, and more heavily dependent on federal welfare and transfer payments than the residents of the poorest current states. Moreover, the island has a deeply rooted national independence movement -- though recent polls show that to be at a relative ebb.

Puerto Rico's political status has been an issue since the island was ceded by Spain after the U.S. victory in the Spanish-American War of 1898. Puerto Ricans were made U.S. citizens in 1917, but residents there have no right to vote in presidential elections or to send representatives to Congress.

Puerto Rican Gov. Pedro J. Rossello sees next year's centennial of Puerto Rico under the U.S. flag as the appropriate occasion for changing the island's legal status. Like his New Progressive Party, he wants Puerto Ricans to choose statehood to replace commonwealth status.

The statehood forces are gaining ground -- unfortunately, for all the wrong reasons. When Puerto Ricans last voted on the issue, in 1993, the commonwealth forces prevailed over statehood by a very narrow 2 percent.

But statehood advocates have been pounding across the message that their way means greatly expanded eligibility for federal benefits.

FEDERAL CORNUCOPIA

"If it were a state," writes former Gov. Carlos Romero-Barcelo in his frankly titled book, "Statehood Is for the Poor," "Puerto Rico would be absolutely assured of enormous amounts of federal money -- money the island needs in order to come to grips with its many problems. But without statehood, such large quantities of money are going to be increasingly hard to come by."

Indeed, while Puerto Ricans now pay no federal income taxes, half the island's 3.7 million inhabitants receive Food Stamps -- a rate considerably higher than that of Mississippi, the poorest mainland state.

Puerto Rico has long had a high rate of out-of-wedlock births -- a problem which seems to worsen as Puerto Ricans move closer to the American mainstream. An astounding 59.4 percent of Puerto Rican children born on the U.S. mainland are born to unwed mothers, a rate twice the (dismayingly high) national average and much greater than any other Hispanic group in the U.S.

Unemployment on the island is over 13 percent, more than twice the national figure.

PRIDE IN LANGUAGE

Then there is language -- a symbol of culture and probably the most volatile issue of all. According to the Census Bureau, only 25 percent of the island's population is fluent in English, and that percentage hasn't risen in years. Some Republicans hope to expand the use of English on the island, but history suggests this will be difficult. Indeed, Puerto Ricans have a history of pride in their language and of tough resistance to measures extending the use of English in their schools.

Passage of the plebiscite bill in Congress could very well launch Puerto Rico on an inexorable march toward becoming the 51st state. Why, then, is there so little caution, so little reflection by the Washington political establishment on the potential pitfalls of such union?

The independence movement -- while now able to garner only about 5 percent in the opinion polls -- has always had a substantial backing among Puerto Rico's intellectual and artistic elite.

The pro-independence forces have resorted to violence on several occasions, and Puerto Ricans continue to revere as nationalist heroes several martyr-figures whom most Americans would view simply as terrorists. The friction over language and culture that Puerto Rican statehood would surely generate might well inflame the independentista spirit -- with unforseeable consequences.

Perhaps Puerto Ricans might benefit -- materially at least -- from the increased access to federal transfer payments that statehood would bring.

But what would be the impact on the the U.S.? A relatively poor Caribbean island state, with a high illegitimacy rate, would almost certainly elect to Congress liberal Democrats, who would be committed to higher taxes and increased social spending. Such legislators could be expected to support the extension of bilingual education, and might well become a powerful institutional voice for making Spanish a quasi-official language of the U.S.

GOP FECKLESSNESS

There are, we know, an array of arguments both for and against statehood (and the other options) that haven't been addressed here; we have stressed the reasons for hesitation and caution.

The mystery is why the Republican-controlled Congress is ready to take such a major and probably irrevocable step affecting the future of the U.S. with so little public debate and reflection. At week's end, Speaker Newt Gingrich's office had no thought to offer on the matter.

We believe that the looming vote on Puerto Rico's status is yet another sign of how the congressional GOP has lost its way. The current leadership seems more interested in trying to placate the liberal Washington establishment -- or hatching schemes it imagines are popular with minority voters -- than in protecting the interests of the voters who elected it. This is a feckless way to guide America's destiny.

--- SM (NY Post 1997)

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