Posted on 11/06/2006 10:10:55 AM PST by meg88
Jim Geraghty has noticed it. MSNBC sees it. The Washington Post sees it. Even liberal blogger Jerome Armstrong, who appeared on my radio show on Saturday, was only cautiously optimistic about Tuesday, with an emphasis on the cautious.
And my sources in Washington tell me the 2006 election is, like the melting New Hampshire snows after that first sustained burst of spring sunshine, a heck of a lot muddier than it used to be just a few days ago. And that’s good news for Republicans, because it is the Democrats’ lead that’s melting away.
Internal Republican polls from around the country are showing a modest, yet consistent and noticeable trend in favor of Republican candidates. Note: these trends appeared before Saddam Hussein was found guilty of war crimes and sentenced to death—a turn of events Karl Rove himself could not have timed better for Republicans.
“What you are hearing is a collective sigh of Republican relief after this latest round of data has come in,” one high-level Republican consultant in Washington told me. “Word is already starting to spread that the prophesied ‘tidal wave’ might only be a ripple.”
One high-profile Republican pundit could hardly contain his glee that the prognosticators would be proved wrong, again. “If the present Republican surge is real and continues through Tuesday, Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenberg, and John Zogby will be stripped bare of any credibility when it comes to predicting electoral outcomes,” he stated. “Personally, I hope they go out of business.”
Specifically, sources tell me that the Tennessee, Missouri, and Montana Senate races continue to trend toward the Republicans. Michael Steele, the Republican nominee for US Senate in Maryland is in a dead heat with Ben Cardin. Even Senate races Republicans have written off are showing positive trends: Mike DeWine in Ohio and Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania are said to be “surging.”
In the House Republicans are now rapidly lowering estimates of how many seats they might lose. “Whereas a week ago we were looking at the possibility of losing 25 seats, we now think that number is closer to 10,” a Congressional Republican insider told me.
I am happy finally, too...the turnaround in the generic ballot shows the GOP is really revved up to vote here.
I am ready for tomorrow. I don't think we will gain seats, but we will hold.
And ultimately, that is victory in this environment and based on the history of losing seats in the second midterm election.
Right now I predict between break-even and a GAIN of 10 for the GOP...
>>Nothing that can't be made up in a presidential election year.
Given the extremely high re-election rate in the House, let's fight for every seat. The seats are not that easy to recapture, even in Presidential election years. Although the trends look good in the future, let's not take anything for granted. No one knows exactly what the future will hold.
Everyone get out and vote. The Democrat you let into office today by not voting could be a curse your children have to deal with.
Thanc yuo Jon Carry.
(I corrected your spelling.)
This pretty much coincided with what the Magnificent Bastard predicted....we'll lose 3 Senate seats, and 10 House seats...and retain controll of both chambers.
Proves the land of Lala is the residence of choice of looney liberals, eh?
RYMB bump
I predict a gain of 1 in the Senate (wins in MO, MT, NJ, OH, PA, RI and TN; loss in MD)
I've been predicting (to everyone I know) that we only lose 2 in the Senate and 8-10 in the House. Not what I would like, we should be able kick the #### of these lying leftist Demagogues, but with the MSM heavily stacked against us it will be impressive to nearly hold our own when the current and historical trends are so strongly against us in the 6th year of a R. presidency. I would far rather see the Demagogues losing ALL the close races, of course, but that's too much to hope for with the situation we face in the MSM, etc.
A gain of ten would require absolutely everything go the GOP's way, and even then I'm not sure they'd quite reach that number. Breaking even is certainly possible.
I think it goes along with reminding the voters why they've been voting against the 'rats in 2002 and 2004. As the actual election date approaches, you'd expect to see that anyway, but the Kerry thing helped focus and magnify it quicker.
I always wondered whether the lazy pollsters look at an incumbents lack of support in the primaries and figure we won't vote for them in the midterms.
The newz been teling me sinz I yam a Christian ahm to stoopid ta vot and to sta home, cuz ah mus be "disillushened." But ah foold thim, and votet las wiek.
Got no ideer who them "van gelicles" is. Ah jes go ta church on Sundaz, the same day ah take a bath in the crick.
And they will. If you go to your spread sheet and enter the data and run the regression, looking at the plot, it looks like the GOP may actually gain as many as five seats in the house. This is not due to voters changing, but to pollsters getting closer to honest reporting.
Yup.
Please welcome Senator Steele.
I do this every two years, and have successfully chased DEM Chicago machine operatives out of the northern Cook County area when I caught them red-handed, handing out campaign literature to shuttle buses of old people being dropped off at the polls from their assisted living residences.
JUST DO IT PEOPLE!
MEGABUMP!!!
Yup.
Please welcome Senator Steele.
___
I certainly hope so, but I just feel like he is not going to be able to beat Cardin.
I'm voting tomorrow for Steele, and Erhlich.
We will see.
Was your predition a net or gross loss of 10 GOP House seats? Did your prediction factor in any GOP House pickups? It is looking like the GOP should pick up at least the two rat seats in Georgia and then another one either in Illinois, West Virginia or Indiana.
If you add the three rat held seats we should pick up, then a 10 seat GROSS GOP loss for the House could actually be a seven seat NET GOP loss for the House. That wouldn't be great (I'd like to see the GOP keep or increase its 15 seat House majority), but that would still leave the GOP in comfortable control of the House (eight vote majority in this case).
It was a net loss, factoring in several GOP pickups.
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