Posted on 01/03/2007 12:23:44 PM PST by presidio9
Whether it's because of global warming, El Nino, or just a really long warm spell, weather in New York City this winter has been awfully strange. With temperatures continually hovering around the 50 degree mark and even occasionally nearing 60, perhaps the most bizarre weather-related incident happened in Brooklyn where cherry blossoms decided to make an early appearance.
At the Brooklyn Botanic Garden, it hardly seems like the dead of winter. Most cherry blossoms don't bloom until the beginning of spring when the winter chill finally begins to warm up. But there hasn't been a winter chill for most of the season, and for that reason, a cherry blossom tree was in practically full bloom on this the second day of January.
"It's very unusual. We have thousands and thousands of flowers on this tree," Dr. Mark Tebbitt told CBS 2.
The cherry blossom tree isn't the only confused species in the area. Turtles that are supposed to be hibernating right now are still going for a daily swim. Birds are plentiful, and the park still receives many visitors -- something they typically don't see during the winter.
CBS 2 Meteorologist John Bolaris says the unseasonable weather should mostly be attributed to El Nino.
"El Nino normally means milder temperatures for the east, and not as much snow. We've had a snowless December for the first time in over 100 years -- one of the third warmest December on record, and if we don't get any snow by this Thursday, which we won't, it'll be the first snowless stretch for winter in over 130 years," Bolaris said.
What's more, the milder temperatures may linger well into the end of the month. "El Nino will continue so we're still looking at an unseasonably mild January, with things finally cooling down for the last part of the month. And the best chances of seeing some snow is going to be from February into March."
People across the tri-state are enjoying what seems to be an early spring -- or is it a late winter? In Central Park today, the only ones in heavy coats were the dogs.
But the pleasant weather has been anything but for local ski resorts. At the Tuxedo Ski Center, the mountains were bare today. "I've been in this business for 18 years and have never seen anything like this," John Blandi of the resort said.
Blandi isn't alone -- New York City experienced its first snowless November and December for the first time since 1877. Its winter with the least amount of snow? You'd have to go back to 1973 when only 2.8 inches of snow fell.
So how much does global warming play into the weather?
"You can relate it to global warming, but over 100 years ago I don't think they were talking about global warming -- in 1877 it was a snowless December and they were probably not mentioning global warming then," Bolaris said. "The last four winter seasons El Nino was missing and we had record setting snow for a single day just last year. Don't put away the snow shovels yet because even in an El Nino year you can still get snow. And always the surprise super storm is not out of the question."
When will winter arrive? It's anyone's guess -- for the time being, temperatures will continue to stay in the 50s in the region for at least the next four to five days.
We're doomed.
We've just entered what is normally the coldest part of winter. (January and February) We'll see how long the warm weather holds.
I'm confused: All of these things sound like positives.
It's doubtful that they are typical spring-blooming cherries like you'd find in DC blooming, since they REQUIRE a certain number of hours of winter chilling and dormancy before blooming.
More likely they're Prunus subhirtella, which often blooms during winter mild spells anywhere from November to March.
http://www.ces.ncsu.edu/depts/hort/consumer/factsheets/trees-new/prunus_subhirtella_autum.html
Algore in town?
Methinks the folks in Colorado, Kansas, et al. would love some global warming right about now.
"We're doomed."
***
And it's all Bush's fault.
"New York City experienced its first snowless November and December for the first time since 1877"
It's all Grant's fault then.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/history/presidents/ug18.html
With heating fuel at 2.32 a gallon, I am hoping for continued globial warming.
A general question: If leaves begin blooming, and then the winter sets in, will those particular branches bloom yet again in SPring, or not because the leaves had already sprouted?
Great minds .. etc. Here in SW Pa, some apples have shown signs of wanting to come out of dormancy ... I'm no horticulturalist, but I'd like to know that also.
"With heating fuel at 2.32 a gallon, I am hoping for continued globial warming."
***
Same here...only in my case, it's the gas bill. Normally around this time of year I'm paying around $200. Just got my bill and it's $79. Global warming/El Nino is fine with me.
I have a 500 gallon tank. My last fuel bill was $780.
I would caution about attributing this to either El Nino or supposed AGW. This El Nino ended up being a dud and is already dissipating. Significantly, out West, we never experienced any El Nino characteristics (usually we experience them first and strongest). If anything, we are experiencing a crypto La Nina (cold, low elevation snow, etc).
Of further note, the PDO really wants to flip to negative phase (ala 1940 - 1976). What is being experienced back east (and in Western Europe) may be a sort of "calm before the storm" effect, a precursor to a very cold and wet couple of decades globally. We'll see.
I have some forsythia that have flowers out. That really is not unusual, I recall they often bloom during a warm spell during winter.
Tell the people of eastern Colorado, western Nebraska and western Kansas that it is global warming. They have about 20 feet of snow to contend with right now.
The world doesn't revolve around the east coast.
Actually I believe that weather patterns are cyclic in nature.
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