Julie-Annie is a flaming socialist...
Posted on 06/10/2007 12:01:53 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton continues to dominate her rivals in the early Southern Democratic primary states, but her high negatives and polarizing image likely will keep the South in the Republican column in 2008, according to strategists and analysts in the region.
Still, analysts who track political trends in the Sunbelt states say Republicans have been hurt by the party's divisive battle over immigration, especially in the South. That could help Democrats next year in Southern states such as Florida and Arkansas if Republicans are not unified behind their party's presidential nominee, they say.
"I don't think Hillary Clinton would run very well among white voters. But if the Republicans not united around their nominee, that would give someone like Hillary an opportunity," said Merle Black, a political historian and analyst at Emory University in Georgia.
"I think there has been a lot of disaffection among Republicans in the South for President Bush, especially as a result of the immigration debate, but I don't think that creates more Democrats in the South. If the Republicans are able to nominate someone who puts a different face on the party, then the Republicans will be back in the ballgame," Mr. Black said.
Recent polls show Mrs. Clinton, the front-runner for her party's nomination, lengthening her lead among Democrats in party preference polls in Florida. But she trails former New York City Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, the Republican front-runner, by five points in a head-to-head matchup, according to a Quinnipiac University poll last week.
Former President Bill Clinton, the last Democratic candidate to make electoral inroads in the South, "will campaign for her and that will play itself out, but she is a very different candidate than Bill Clinton, and she will resonate very differently in the South,"
(Excerpt) Read more at washtimes.com ...
Well-Said! The Democrats are morons if they do not nominate John Edwards.
I personally classify anything that was Confederate or Confederate leaning as The South. So that would make Oklahoma definitely The South and Kansas not.
I stand by my comments. I’m pretty sure I typed that conservatism as a political ideology is dead in this country. In a sea of liberals, Rudy drifts to the right, like all Republicans.
Show me the quote where Rudy says he’s doing away with the 2nd Amendment. Show me the quote where he insists that you think like him or you are “don’t care about America”. Oh, wait. That was another “conservative”.
Julie-Annie is a flaming socialist...
free dixie,sw
“Your analysis is accurate but you left out one part of the equation-the fact that for the past twenty years or so many Southern states have seen an emigation of white Northern liberal professionals into the region.
Their tendency to vote Democrtaic,along with the Pavlovian black vote,leads me to believe that very soon states like Georgia,North Carolina and Florida will tip into the Dem column,perhaps forever.”
Be careful with being too categorical in your assumption. Whites are the most likely of any racial group to vote Republican (except perhaps for certain Cubans). In fact, in 2004 Northeastern whites tended to split their vote between Bush and Kerry. For example, the percentage of the white vote that went for Bush was 50% in New York, 55% in Maryland, 49% in New Hampshire, 48% in Connecticut, 55% in Delaware and 54% in New Jersey.
My point is simply that the Northern white ‘liberals’ that have moved to the South are not necessarily voting Democratic by the huge margins that you suggest. In fact, exit polls showed that a huge percentage of whites in the South continued to vote Republican in 2004 and even in 2006. I agree that Florida is a flaky state, but even still, just look at the fact that the GOP is still firmly in control of the Florida state government and holds sway in the US House delegation for the Sunshine State.
There’s not any sign that Georgia is heading in that direction either. In 2006, the GOP absolutely thrashed the Dems in the Peach State, in spite of getting hurt in many areas around the nation.
North Carolina? One would think so but the GOP has continued to do quite well in the state. President Bush’s 56% of the vote there, in spite of John Edwards’ presence on the ballot is pretty indicting. As for the white vote breakdown in the 13 states commonly referred to as the South, it broke down like this in 2004:
Oklahoma: 71%
Texas: 74%
Arkansas: 63%
Louisiana: 75%
Kentucky: 64%
Mississippi: 85%
Tennessee: 65%
Alabama: 80%
Virginia: 68%
North Carolina: 73%
South Carolina: 78%
Georgia: 76%
Florida: 57%
As you can see, North Carolina and Georgia’s whites voted for Bush in margins well above 70%, comparing very favorably to the other very conservative Republican states. I do share your concerns about Florida, though. Virginia, too, has had some worrying signals.
"rudy the rino" has NO chance in dixie. period. end of story.
he is dead wrong on every conservative/Constitutional/religious/state's rights issue.
should he be the GOP nominee, i'll go fishing, rather than vote for EITHER leftist. i will NOT be alone (the lake will be CROWDED!).
free dixie,sw
“Much of the GOP leadership is terrible, but some isn’t bad IF pressured in the right ways. All of it needs to be pushed by the grassroots. A presidential campaign with no incumbent is always a good chance to influence the party.”
All of what you say is essentially true. But you have to ask the question: to what end?
For a moment, let’s just assume that the GOP were actually inclined to pursue something resembling a conservative political agenda. What evidence do we have that they would actually be successful? Prior to 2006, the GOP actually had control of both houses of Congress, the Presidency, most state legislatures, and most Governorships. They accomplished little. So now that the the GOP is out of power, it’s now going to accomplish something? That’s certainly counterintuitive. Possible, but counterintuitive and unlikely.
But let’s go even further and assume that the GOP were to somehow regain the same level of political power that it had prior to 2006 as well as was actually inclined to do something with it. There is still the issue of an active and motivated socialist opposition that will use every tool at it’s disposal to frustrate any progress. Progress, if it’s to be had on the electoral front, is going to be very dearly purchased.
So back to my question: to what end? I’m one person. I have limited time and resources to make a mark while I’m here. The more I look at it, the more I come to the conclusion that my personal involvement in electoral politics is not likely to have any meaningful payback. I do enjoy it, and I do find it entertaining. It’s like football in that sense. But there are dozens of things that I can do that are far more effective in bringing about conservatism in my time. Planting a garden, for example. Or clipping coupons. Or doing something really useful like home educating a child.
They tend to prevent liberal things from happening. Not as many as they should, but quite a bit. The largest but far from the only example of this is that if Kerry had been able to appoint two Supreme Court justices (it was Bush, because he was re-elected) we would have a 6-to-3, hard-left majority on the Court right now. Without a Republican president in ‘08 to right that balance, such a situation might very well be the death knell for our remaining democracy. While a Republican Senate would not have blocked Kerry nominees to the Supreme Court (unless they were very carelessly chosen), a Democratic Senate would not have confirmed Sam Alito. If these sorts of victories don’t illustrate the importance of the actual difference between the parties — unsatisfying though I admit it often is — you don’t belong in politics even as a commenter. This is a hard slog, not long on inspiration. 90 percent of the time, it’s unsatisfactory. Like many unsatisfactory things, however, it badly needs doing, and with a minimum of whining when the work really needs to be done, as it will be in ‘08.
Planting a garden brings about conservatism in our time?
What are you smoking?
Educating a child? That’s simply a personal duty. It’s not a political act. Your child may very well end up as a liberal, or worse, though no fault of your own. In any case, he’s one vote, my FRiend. The volunteer who brings in 20 votes in a couple of afternoons of the work you disdain has, therefore, done 20 times more conservatism in any given year than you have by “educating a child.” And each given year is extremely important, because it each given year represents the possibility of renewed or increased power for the Rats.
Frankly, real foot soldiers like myself find your attitude CONTEMPTIBLE. Men in Iraq are losing arms, legs, and lives. Their mission, to me anyway, is clear enough to warrant the effort in that country. But surely it has as many problems, as many frustrations and ambiguities, as the domestic politics you’re whining about. (In addition, what difference, really, does one individual soldier normally make, in Iraq or any other war? Does it have to be a big difference to matter? I think not. But apparently you think so. Would you like our soldiers, too, to follow your selfish, lazy, cynical, shortsighted advice and plant a garden instead of fighting?) The least we civilians can do is give up a little time so our government will be less bad than it otherwise would be. Sort of like the situation in Iraq. Not great by a long shot. But just less bad.
(I wonder: when you open the fridge for a snack, do you throw a tantrum if your favorite snack isn’t there?)
“Planting a garden brings about conservatism in our time?What are you smoking?”
I quit smoking many years ago. Perhaps you haven’t read much about communism, but food has frequently been used as a political weapon. I can’t remember who said it, but it was a great quote: the best thing you can do to help the poor is not to become one of them. In much the same way, the best way to help the starving is not to become one of them. We’re quickly getting to the point where we’re becoming net importers of food. If you liked OPEC, you’ll love it when we kowtow to countries that export our food to us. Not to mention the fact that it’s good exercise, minimizes payment of taxes, and reinforces self reliance. All things that are consistent with a traditional conservative philosophy.
“Educating a child? That’s simply a personal duty. It’s not a political act. Your child may very well end up as a liberal, or worse, though no fault of your own.”
Educating a child, as well as having them in the first place, is implicitly a political act. You should read Mark Steyn’s “America Alone.” Socialists are not born that way, they’re taught. They get that education in the government schools. Each child that is taken out of that environment is one less that is likely to join the socialists ranks. It’s a long slog, but worth it in my view.
So while we’re talking about the hard work that needs doing, what is actually more difficult (but likely to bear more fruit): educating the next generation of conservatives over a period of years, or say working a political campaign where you might, and I emphasize might, influence 20 votes in an election where millions may be cast?
“Frankly, real foot soldiers like myself find your attitude CONTEMPTIBLE. Men in Iraq are losing arms, legs, and lives. Their mission, to me anyway, is clear enough to warrant the effort in that country. But surely it has as many problems, as many frustrations and ambiguities, as the domestic politics you’re whining about.”
So who’s whining? People are free to make their own choices as to where they will be most effective. I didn’t mention military service in my list of examples, but I do think it much more effective than electoral politics. And by the way, future volunteer soldiers don’t just show up on their own accord. They have to be raised and educated.
“The least we civilians can do is give up a little time so our government will be less bad than it otherwise would be. Sort of like the situation in Iraq. Not great by a long shot. But just less bad.”
I actually agree with you on this point. I think it’s in your definition of what constitutes a “little” time. If you define it as voting, taking the time to send e-mails to your representatives, making phone calls on specific issues, or organizing on specific issues of concern, I would agree with you 100%. If you’re defining it as spending time on partisan political campaigns or promoting a political party, then I would not agree with you. The payback just hasn’t been there for conservatives and isn’t likely to be in the future. I recognize stating that, particularly on a political website is akin to heresy. But it’s simply the truth.
If you poured money into a set of 10 investments and 9 were performing well and one was consistently failing, chances are you would not continue to pour your money into the failing investment.
“write this on the palm of your hand, where you’ll not forget it:
“rudy the rino” has NO chance in dixie. period. end of story.
he is dead wrong on every conservative/Constitutional/religious/state’s rights issue.
should he be the GOP nominee, i’ll go fishing, rather than vote for EITHER leftist. i will NOT be alone (the lake will be CROWDED!).
free dixie,sw”
Rudy’s not my man either. While I mean no disrespect for non-southerners, we have to be realistic that the South is the ‘happening’ place in America today. It’s already the largest single region in our country and it is, as previously discussed, deeply conservative. Outside of the South the only states that match its level of conservatism are perhaps Utah or some of the Central Plains states.
My point is that with 1 out of 3 Americans southern (exactly double the Northeastern population), the GOP can’t ignore southern values. That means silly pro-gay and pro-abortion views are going to hinder a candidate like Rudy. I’m aware that not all southerners are pro-life, etc, but a GOP candidate has got to get these issues right. If Rudy thinks the southern GOP primaries are going to go his way, that really sounds a stretch.
free dixie,sw
Well, I’ll know not to count on you next year.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.