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Hillary the inevitable
the politico ^ | 9 July, 2007 | Ben Smith

Posted on 07/09/2007 2:51:03 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar

Obama strategist David Plouffe released a memo last week arguing that Hillary Clinton's advantages were essentially those of incumbency, that her support was thin, and that Obama should actually be considered the front-runner.

Mark Penn, Clinton's chief strategist, responded today with a memo that seemed designed to bludgeon all opposition into senselessness through the sheer power of numbers (links to 40 polls showing Hillary in the lead!)

Penn strongly implies another i-word is the best description of Hillary -- not "incumbent," but "inevitable."

In recent election cycles, any time a candidate has had as much as 35 or 40 percent of the vote consistently across polls in a multi-candidate field, that candidate has gone on to win the nomination. In the last race, Joseph Lieberman was in the teens at this point while Walter Mondale’s numbers in the 1984 Democratic primary were comparable to Hillary’s now.

I'm not entirely sure of the wisdom of this line of argument. Does he want Hillary backers to think of her as the Mondale of 2008? Sure, Mondale got the nomination but....


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: piginapantsuit
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1 posted on 07/09/2007 2:51:07 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar
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To: Jet Jaguar
Walter Mondale’s numbers in the 1984 Democratic primary were comparable to Hillary’s now.
2 posted on 07/09/2007 2:58:31 PM PDT by mnehring (Virtus Junxit Mors Non Separabit)
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To: Jet Jaguar

Drudge has headlined this, with a large, scary picture of the Hildabeast.

But what the headline doesn’t say is that although hillary’s NOMINATION is inevitable, her ELECTION is not. It all depends on what the Republicans do between now and then, and whether they nominate someone who is electable.

Despite what his fans say, Rudy is not electable. He would lose tens of millions of pro-life votes.

That leaves Mitt and Fred as the two electable candidates, for the moment at least. I like Duncan Hunter, but he isn’t getting any traction. Unless Hillary manages to come up with something to kill Fred, I think he’s got it, and also that he has the best chance of beating her.


3 posted on 07/09/2007 3:03:10 PM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: mnehrling

Did Mondale have the negatives that Hillary has?

Almost 50% saying they’d never vote for her, no way, no how?


4 posted on 07/09/2007 3:03:44 PM PDT by digger48
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To: mnehrling

Walters negitives weren`t as high as Hillorat`s!


5 posted on 07/09/2007 3:06:00 PM PDT by bybybill (HUNT RINOS IN THE PRIMARIES, SKIN RATS IN THE FALL)
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To: Jet Jaguar

You know, call me time confused, but somebody pointed this out to me today; The next POTUS election is not until November of 2008. So My God, are we going to have to listen to this shrill for the next year and 5 months? I- I -I don`t think I can t-t-take it! Noooo! Someone please, help me! Nooo, not this long!! AAAAH!


6 posted on 07/09/2007 3:16:16 PM PDT by Screamname (On this date in history; Al Gore invents the Algorithm)
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To: Screamname

Heartfelt dittoes


7 posted on 07/09/2007 3:18:09 PM PDT by Constantine XIII
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To: Jet Jaguar

Penn the WIRE-TAPPER!!! There was a story about Mark Penn TAPPING the phone line of someone that USED to work for him that started a new polling business!! WIRE TAPPED HIS PHONE!!!! OMG! Hillary’s minions at work wiretapping!!


8 posted on 07/09/2007 3:22:44 PM PDT by Suzy Quzy (Hillary in '08.....Her PHONINESS is GENUINE !!!!)
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To: mnehrling
Walter Mondale’s numbers in the 1984 Democratic primary were comparable to Hillary’s now.

Get FRed Thompson in there, and Hildebeast is anything but 'inevitable'....

9 posted on 07/09/2007 3:24:30 PM PDT by MaestroLC ("Let him who wants peace prepare for war."--Vegetius, A.D. Fourth Century)
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To: Jet Jaguar

She’ll inevitably win the Dem nomination.

And then she’ll inevitably get slapped down by President Romney.


10 posted on 07/09/2007 3:29:47 PM PDT by Dragonspirit (We fight it out as good friends now, but in 2008 we UNITE against our enemy!)
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To: Cicero
I realize that there are a lot of Mitt haters out here, but I think that it is simply unrealistic to keep bashing him when he has the inside track on the 2008 Republican nomination.

I do not see anyone else with the organization and a real shot to take down the Beast next year.

It is true that he did little for the Republican Party here in Massachusetts, but that is almost OK with me.

Mitt in my view represents the anti-Politician.

I happen to think that organized politicians are a major problem in our Society.

I never vote for incumbents unless they are term limited as the President is. I would not have voted for Mitt for Governor again if he did run here, but 6 months later I would have hated myself again.

Mitt spared me from that anguish by not running for reelection.

11 posted on 07/09/2007 3:37:34 PM PDT by Radix (Arrogance is simply a display of male feelings of sexual inadequacy...Radix)
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To: Jet Jaguar

12 posted on 07/09/2007 3:46:32 PM PDT by spald
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To: Cicero
hillary's NOMINATION is inevitable, her ELECTION is not.

That's what propaganda is for. And treachery. And intimidation.

Too much is at stake. These people take themselves very seriously.

13 posted on 07/09/2007 3:51:35 PM PDT by the invisib1e hand (Life is an episode of Green Acres. THEN you die.)
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To: Jet Jaguar; All
I keep telling "YOU PEOPLE" the Democrats are going to cream you in '08 (I ain't bad at this I called the "Bush Boom" in print when the Dow dropped to 7,000). They spent their entire debate on Thursday railing about income disparity and poverty. And what are Republicans doing - believing principles, the Muslims, morality and a fence are going to save them. I'm getting a headache.

YOU PEOPLE are coming off a big win with the defeat of the immigration bill. You have defeated amnesty and again principles prevailed. Now what is your second act? You just created another Democrat voting block in the Latino community. They will be flooding the polls. Just what rhetoric will stem that tide? The media is going to murder you. Turn independent - yeah that will really help.

I implore you to stop day dreaming and worrying about minutiae. It really doesn't matter whether its Fred, Rudy, Mitt, Newt or a dozen others - we need a pocketbook issue that will turn the tide against the left. There is no better one than making the poor rich using their own money. Read this and tell me what you think.

http://dickmcdonald.blogspot.com/2007_07_01_archive.html#1100126931644946418

14 posted on 07/09/2007 4:03:10 PM PDT by anglian
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To: anglian

http://dickmcdonald.blogspot.com/2007_07_01_archive.html#1100126931644946418


15 posted on 07/09/2007 4:05:39 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar
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To: Radix

I just looked at my post again, and I didn’t say anything the least bit negative about Mitt. All I said is that the two foremost candidates at the moment are Mitt and Fred, and I like Fred. McCain is now out of it, and Rudy is a loser.

I generally stay off the Mitt threads. I have problems with him, but I don’t see any point in pushing it at the moment.


16 posted on 07/09/2007 4:25:36 PM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: mnehrling
Hitlary might win the democrat nomination but she won’t win the presidential election. The only people who like Hillary are liberals and the elitist slobs who live in the cities. The average man and woman thinks she’s a lying,cheating skank.
17 posted on 07/09/2007 4:27:04 PM PDT by peeps36 (OUTLAWED WORDS--INSURGENT,GLOBAL WARMING,UNDOCUMENTED WORKER,PALESTINIAN,TERMINATED PREGNANCY)
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To: anglian

Ugh! Do have any “pocket book issues” that Republicans should be emphasizing to the electorate?


18 posted on 07/09/2007 4:30:58 PM PDT by jonrick46
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To: Cicero
I generally stay off the Mitt threads. I have problems with him, but I don’t see any point in pushing it at the moment.

I am not sure how I feel about Mitt, but I'm in no hurry to decide. A few months back I assumed Mitt would be at or near the lead in much of the polling but he doesn't seem to be getting there yet. Not even close. If so few others like him I'll just continue to ignore him for the most part.

19 posted on 07/09/2007 4:38:54 PM PDT by rogue yam
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To: Jet Jaguar

Is there any public figure more unlikable than Hillary Clinton? The antithesis of Bill. At least you could take him to a ball game and have a good time. No warm and cozy feelings emote from Her, not her style, not possible. Just don’t see it. No how, no way.

She is now a matron soon to be sixty. I’m about her age and I’m ready for a nap. I just don’t see her need for power.


20 posted on 07/09/2007 4:41:38 PM PDT by nedlbndr
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