Scientists say there is 4 percent chance asteroid could hit Mars (Odds improve, still a longshot)

AP on Bakersfield Californian ^ | 12/28/07 | Alicia Chang - ap

[UCANSEE2]

So, how is 1 in 25 equal to 4 percent?

[UCANSEE2]

“”Usually when an asteroid is headed toward Earth, I’m not rooting for an impact.””

Yeah, I hear you, Don.

Usually. But there are those times....

[piytar]

“So, how is 1 in 25 equal to 4 percent?”

Um, 1 divided by 25 = 0.04 = 4 percent. Or multiple it out: 4 times 1 = 4, and 4 times 25 = 100, so 1 in 25 is the same as 4 in 100 = 4 percent...

[MtnClimber]

An evil Democrat attack, not at a Red State, but at our mascot, The Red Planet! We should launch an even larger asteroid at the Democrat mascot planet, Uranus!

[seowulf]

Lucifer’s Hammer. 1 in a million, 1 in 100,000, 1 in 50,00, 1 in 1,000, 1 in 50......................KABOOM!!!!!

Good book. I particularly enjoyed the post apocalyptic roving mobs of cannibals. I think Lucifer's Hammer was a comet though.

[Duke Nukum]

What if we make a daring plan and send all the hippies up to Mars to have a Mars Jump Day to jump the planet into the path of the meteor?

It’s not like they’re doing anything else. I’m sure most could be persuaded to go for a few joints and a Phish CD and the rest would be too stoned to even know they were going to Mars. Or they think they’re already on Mars.

Man, that would be so sweet! And science would benefit which seems to be the only justification needed these days for any insane plan.

[burzum]

Hmm, this is pretty close. The Roche Limit for this asteroid approaching Mars is probably about 5000 to 8000 km from the center of Mars (assuming typical asteroid densities). Hopefully it will approach within that limit and get broken up. It doesn't look like that will occur. There is still a pretty big margin of error.

Here is the orbit simulation if anybody is interested.

[Duke Nukum]

I would imagine that could screw up Mars’ revolution, if not at least its rotation.

So you say you want a Rev-o-loo-oo-tion Well, you know We all want to smash hippies into Mars. Maybe it would even resurrect the ghost of Velikovsky! That would be so great! The Ghost of Sagan versu the Ghost of Velikovsky in a WWE Pay-per-view cage match event!

[UCANSEE2]

“Um, 1 divided by 25 = 0.04 = 4 percent. Or multiple it out: 4 times 1 = 4, and 4 times 25 = 100, so 1 in 25 is the same as 4 in 100 = 4 percent...”

Man, Did I ever outsmart myself, or what!

Thanks.

[djf]

I remember that! Now, it’s gone up quite a bit!

If we wake up next week and it’s one in 5, then we better get ready to send disaster assistance to the worms up there!

As the odds change, doesn’t that mean they are unsure of the path? Could Mars kick this little bugger enough so that it comes our way?

[burzum]

As the odds change, doesn’t that mean they are unsure of the path? Could Mars kick this little bugger enough so that it comes our way?

Looking at the orbit diagram (in my previous link) it looks that if Mars scatters this asteroid into a more elliptical orbit it would be likely that it would interact with Jupiter at some point and get scattered out of the Solar System. If Mars scatters this asteroid into a less elliptical orbit then it would increase the probability of interactions with the Earth. Both cases would allow the asteroid to interact with the Earth at its present inclination. If the scattering were to increase its inclination, it would be difficult for it to interact with the Earth unless its semiminor axis was the same as the Earths distance from the Sun.

I wouldn't stress too much about this. The probability that the object could be scattered in any way that would impact the Earth within the next 10,000 years is microscopic.

[burzum]

Actually, I need to correct myself. If Mars were to scatter the object to a less elliptical orbit at the present interaction position then its orbit would be too large for it to interact with the Earth.

[djf]

I just ran the simulations. The object already had it’s closest approach to Earth and is now outbound.

I imagine Mars could pull the object back into a hyperbolic orbit so that it comes back in, but odds of it hitting us then are pretty slim.

[SunkenCiv]

"I think it'll be cool," said Don Yeomans

Heh... thanks NR for the topic and Lonesome in MA for the link here. KD, a possible pingworthy update topic.

[SunkenCiv]

Odds have increased of the hit. :')

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[RightWhale]

One in twenty five. Getting better. Astronomers and other kinds of scientists could get a lot out of an asteroid strike. Algore might be able to leverage a new cause out of it and might need to since his old carbon scam is starting to fade.

[RightWhale]

The strike would be so small as to be insignificant and years of close scientific observation would be necessary to measure the effect.

[RightWhale]

how is 1 in 25 equal to 4 percent?

Class is out at the univ and everybody is home and should be sober enough to explain how this works.

[RightWhale]

As the odds change, doesn’t that mean they are unsure of the path?

Fact is Newton and calculus notwithstanding, they have no cute formulas like you find in your engineering dynamics textbook to model things flying around the solar system. It's all rule of thumb and seat of the pants and keep watching it to see where it is now because you don't have a clue where it's going to be next.

[djf]

Classic three-body problem.
Never been solved.