Posted on 09/20/2008 9:12:22 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
See here :
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Hopefully, Gov Palin will give a great speech at the other anti-Ahmadinejad rally outside the Hyatt the 25th.
Washington may go for McCain, because Obama supporters may not vote if it doesn’t look good.
I’d rather be in McCain shoes than Obama’s no matter what is going on with the troopergate and the economy. Obama’s big mistake was not choosing Hillary for Vice President. I don’t think it’d be close if Hillary was on the ticket. Maybe if Hillary wins the Dem nomination in 2012, she can pick Obama for Vice President and turn the other cheek.
I’ve seen the “Bradley Effect” on several threads now and don’t have a clue to what it is. Can you explain it?
Thanks,
‘Hammer
The polls had him winning but when the votes were counted, he lost BIGTIME.
Yep. CO is this year’s OH.
Every poll out of IA has Obama ahead. One today has him up 11. It will NOT go McCain. CO is the key. If he wins that, he wins the election.
How large was Bradley’s lead in CA in 1982? I didn’t think it was that large but I was a little surprised when he lost. I don’t think Deukmejian’s margin was that large though. But it was clear cut. That was also the year the Dems hoped to pick up a Senate seat in CA but they didn’t do that either.
I think Wilder’s margin in VA polls in 1989 was larger. Someone on FR said it was 20 points but I don’t remember. That race ended up being extremely close though, so that is when more pundits started talking about voters’ reluctance to tell pollsters they were not voting for a black Democrat.
If I recall correctly they claimed a double digit lead in the polls.
A lot of those midwest “toss-up” states are very close.
What states did Bush win that are showing blue?
I see 10 tossups, half were Bush, half Kerry, but don’t see any Bush states blue on that map, and it does show McCain/Palin with more EVs than Obama/Biden.
GOod thinking! Last night I tried to persuade a friend who spends Spring-Fall in CO to stay there to register and early before returning to her home base. Hopefully I was persuasive.
“A lot of those midwest “toss-up” states are very close.”
Yes, they are, but Dems in those old Rust Belt states have voter fraud down pat. In a clean election, McCain/Palin would probably take all the upper midwest *except IL).
i believe that Bradleys lead was close to 10 points and Duek won by around 5 points which translates to a 15 point swing
something similary happened in VA when the black Dem was ahead by 9 points but barely won by less than 1/2%
In 2004, NM and IA.
I have to tell you this...the last time I felt this was was when Reagan ran against Carter. I was literally yelling at the TV talking heads (and there were less of them, then), saying: “Can’t you see how wrong for America, Pres. Carter is? What’s wrong with America?”
It seemed from the media that things were closer than they were. What it was was that the media was talking and the media wanted the Democrat. In the end, when America spoke, it was pretty clear that America had a different view than what the media (including Gallup and others), were telling us. The media is working 24/7 to prop this guy up. If they left him he would fold like a cheap suit.
Trust the gut on this...this is not Bob Dole running here. This is more like 1980 to me.
Obama has historically polled 4% higher than his actual results to date. And that has been in predominantly urban Illinois with a large black population.
I predict he could do worse than skew 4% in a General Election. That would be sufficient to give McCain ALL the toss up states.
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