“quick hypothesis with regard to earth temps, please, if you’re into that?”
I think we’re already into a cooling trend, and from what I understand that should continue for at least a few more years. That’s based on the solar cycle picking up from here.
If we remain in a minimum longer, temps will fall further and lower. A spike of a few sunspot groups doesn’t really mean much. If you look at historical sunspot number plots, the sunspot numbers will head above 50 consistently pretty quickly once the new cycle starts. So, that’s what I’m watching for. The paper I linked from the NSO points to a possible mechanism for the “minimum” events like the Dalton and Maunder minimums, and if one of those is happening then temps will fall to a point where there’ll be a strong negative impact - and making the global warming crowd look pretty silly in the process.
“Right now is just a space between ice ages”
[Van Halen]
bttt
I didn't think it was possible for the AGW folks to look more silly than they already do.....
Hathaway (the NASA solar expert in the middle of these comments) has been “pushing” his theories that Solar Cycle 24 would be very high, peak very early, and last a very long time. He predicted solar cycle 24 would be clearly starting as early as summer 2006 - that would mean a sunspot count of 35-50 average.
However, these handful of spots in October, preceded by ONE spot in September, and ONE spot way back in January just MIGHT mean that “his cycle” is finally beginning to slope up. Maybe. If cycle 24 is actually going up - we might not be facing the problems of several cold decades like in the Dalton Minimum.
Then again - unlike Gore, I don’t we can control the sun with a democrat majority.