It seems to me that modelling the sun’s activity should be much simpler than modelling the earth’s atmosphere, as there are many fewer variables. And yet we can’t model the sun properly either....
Makes me real optimistic about climate change modelling....
hh
Climate change modelling just makes the modelers assertions look more scientific. But I’d disagree with the assertion that there are many fewer variables. I’d say that we know less about what variables there are.
The sun is actually a very dynamic and complicated thing. It is not some simple blob of nuclear fire in the sky that never changes in unpredictable ways. And we can observe may things on the earth first-hand. No one can go to the sun and observe the "weather." After this new solar cycle has run its course, a lot of textbooks on astrophysics will be revised. Scientists will know more about how stars work. This knowledge could save lives. If we knew we were headed for another mini ice age event, we might be able to do some things to prepare for it although we could not come close to completely preparing for it.