I actually heard the news on the radio today. Cel-e-brate! C'MON!
Posted on 07/09/2009 8:28:27 PM PDT by Libloather
El Nino bad news for winter sports outlook
Story Published: Jul 9, 2009 at 3:35 PM PDT
By Scott Sistek
It's official. El Nino is here.
Pardon us while we blow our party horn.
Toot.
It's news snow fans and skiers probably do not want to hear -- climate forecasters say El Nino conditions have developed in the Pacific Ocean.
El Nino is a warming of ocean temperatures in the tropical region of the Pacific -- part of a typical 3-5 year cycle where the temperatures drift from warm (El Nino) to normal (neutral) to cold (La Nina) then back again.
We had been in a strong La Nina pattern of the past two years, and have trended back to neutral again this spring. Now it appears the warming phase is taking hold and is expected to remain with us through this winter.
In the Pacific Northwest, El Nino doesn't typically have much affect on our summers, but our winters are another story. El Nino winters are usually associated with warmer and drier than normal conditions.
That correlates to a less-than-normal mountain snowpack and lowland snow is rarer. (OK, so after last winter, there might be some eager for a snow-less winter.)
That said it doesn't mean lowland snow chances are zero, just lower than normal. And there will still be some great days to go skiing, just maybe not as many as last year if El Nino does indeed get going. So don't sell that snowboard just yet.
Right now, long range forecasts have trended in line with El NIno and are calling for a better chance of a drier than normal winter in the Pacific Northwest, although it has equal chance for warmer or cooler than normal. Those forecasts are updated once a month. The next update comes in middle July and might change more based on new El Nino information. So check out those links then.
On the other hand, El Nino usually spells trouble for Southern California.
One of the main effects is to bring the tropical jet stream pointed right there, making for a much wetter-than-normal winter.
There is some hope for those who aren't El Nino fans. For one, a longer cycle called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation perhaps trending toward a cooler phase, it might mitigate some of El Nino's usual effects.
We'll see. Long range forecasting is still quite a challenge so stay tuned!
I actually heard the news on the radio today. Cel-e-brate! C'MON!
If memory serves, when the northeast is in a dry/warm pattern, the cooler/wetter air gets stuck down south. I remember some El Nino years in the 80’s with 8 inches of snow or so several times in one winter. In El Nina we would barely break freezing and the bugs were hell the next summer because we never had a deep freeze.
Will El Nino pull South Texas out of the 2 year drought we’re in the middle of? Hope this leads to badly needed rain for this part of Texas - feel free to post any comments.
Here is my very own non-scientific prediction: When we have a really hot summer (as we are now experiencing!), it will be followed by an extremely cold winter.
No, I do not have any facts to substantiate my claim. It’s just my own observations.. and probably totally wrong. ;-) At least I hope I’m wrong.
This could be good news for Florida and other hurricane prone areas. El Nino retards the formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.
I'm on the right coast which has seen it's fair share of rain and low temps this year. This is what I found. (LOVE Texas, BTW...)
El Niño may rescue Texas from drought
7/9/2009 2:36 PM
By: Burton Fitzsimmons
If you remember 2007 in Central Texas, with one of the coolest and wettest summers in living memory, you understand the power of El Niño for our area.
As much as 19 inches of rain bombed Marble Falls that June, Lake Travis refilled, and Austin ended summer with more than 44 inches of rain – well above the annual average of 33 inches.
El Niño, the cyclical warming of the sea surface along the equatorial Pacific, typically occurs every two to five years for a period of about one year each event.
Experts at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center offer a "wetter than normal" forecast for Texas starting in October and lasting through May 2010, which is another sign of good news we simply haven't seen in years.
Ever since the beginning of this past May, water temperatures across the equatorial Pacific have warmed significantly. In the last four weeks alone (ending July 4), seas warmed a full degree above normal in most of the eastern Pacific.
Cooler than normal sea surface temperatures from fall 2008 through February 2009 suggested the La Niña was still holding strong. Then, through April, temperatures returned to a neutral or near normal configuration, the sign of a neutral period in the El Niño cycle affectionately termed "La Nada."
An ensemble of computer models predicts the peak of this upcoming El Niño may occur in late fall or early winter 2010, a period when we should prepare for big improvements in weather from the exceptional drought status across Central and South Texas.
Remember, most droughts end in flood.
How powerful this upcoming period of El Niño will be is still up in the air. NOAA predicts the cycle may wrap up by the end of winter 2010.
Even if we only see half the rain of 2007, it'll be a very positive recovery from the worst area of drought in the U.S. for much of 2009.
News 8 staff meteorologists have previously reported on El Niño here on News8austin.com and also in the recently released summer '09 edition of The Weather Observer, News 8's seasonal digital newsletter for local weather enthusiasts.
http://www.news8austin.com/content/your_news/default.asp?ArID=245857
Ah jeez. I live in BC and I really do not want to foot the bill for a 2010 Olympics with No snow. Ouch.
Global Warming is Bull Sh#t, not cow farts.
I smell a tagline...
Thanks - sounds like positive news, provided that we do not see another 500 year flood like we did in 1998.
BTW - I love Texas as well. Just returned from Ft. Davis and Big Bend. Absolutely beautiful - much cooler in the mountains, lots of rain, and the people were wonderful. Can’t believe it took me 25 years to visit this part of the state after moving here from the Northeast.
Hockey is indoors
I've done my time. Basic training at Lackland, stationed at Brooks AFB in San Antonio for four years and a vacation on top of it makes it one of my favorites. And they serve beef brisket all day long? C'mon. If there's another heaven, I may not want to go...
We’re having a very very mild summer in the northeast.
Read a book.
Background: History of indoor sports played outdoors
Hockey
Though many players grew up playing on outdoor ponds, outdoor high-level hockey games were a rare event in the 20th century. Perhaps the most famous was 1957 final of the World Championships, played before 55,000 in Moscow’s Lenin Stadium. The only known NHL game was played in 1991 at the Caesars Palace outdoor arena in Las Vegas: the Rangers and Kings played a full exhibition game despite 85-degree weather. “For all the hockey derring-do Friday night,” wrote The New York Times, “the exhibition game seemed more an engineering feat than an athletic achievement.”
http://www.findingdulcinea.com/news/sports/July-08/Basketball-and-Hockey-Take-it-Outside.html
Jose Theodore and the Montreal Canadiens endured sub-zero temps in the 2003 Heritage Classic at Commonwealth Stadium in Edmonton.
I can’t ice skate, but I’m not too bad with inline. I just need a good pair.
Take your "El Nino" and shove it!!!
Not by farts???
HYPOCRACY!!!
I take offense at that!!!
I believe that the use of the more commonly misspelled form of hypocrisy has come about by the fact that it seems to be increasingly apparent that we do live in a new form of governmental structure perfectly incorporated in the now accepted term ‘hypocracy’ wherein all logical thought is subsumed by intentional and determined ignorance.
LOL! I'm for it! AND it's funny that it's 'news' that oh, weather patterns affect the weather and not human and animal methane outputs. Something most of us knew.
In the Pacific Northwest, -snip- our winters are another story. El Nino winters are usually associated with warmer and drier than normal conditions.
Yay! And here in PA, mid Atlantic states, our last El Ninos were mild and dry. After the last 3 or 4 winters of snow and cold fests (seemingly more so than usual), I don't mind! ;-)
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