I picked a different “Black Swan event” in my third novel, (new madrid quakes) but if the 2nd volcano blows for 8 months, it might do the same job on the world economy.
I saw either this article or one like it a few days ago, but it’s good to keep it alive.
The last time this volcano erupted, the eruption went on for a year.
It may not have been a continuous eruption, but even if it only shuts down European air travel for one week out of every month for the next year, that’s not going to be good.
Also, the longer it erupts, the more ash builds up in the atmosphere, blocking more and more sunlight, leading to (nobody tell al-Gore) more cooling.
And that’s assuming the other, bigger (Katla?) volcano doesn’t erupt, which is not a good bet.