• KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. (TRUE)
• KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (TRUE)
• KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third party or independent campaign. (TRUE)
• KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (TRUE)
• KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (FALSE)
• KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (TRUE)
• KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (TRUE)
• KEY 9 (Scandal): The administration is untainted by major scandal. (TRUE)
• KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (TRUE)
• KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (FALSE)
• KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (FALSE)
• KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (TRUE)
Uh, 5 is already false, and 2, 8, 9 & 10 could easily flip to false by 2012. Only 6 falses are needed, and Obama already has 4 by Lichtman’s count, 5 by mine.
• KEY 9 (Scandal): The administration is untainted by major scandal. (TRUE)
• KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (TRUE)
Both of these would be deemed FALSE if 0bama didn’t have such a compliant, fawning media to provide cover to his many failures.
The Sestak and Romanoff job-bribe offers, the DOJ protection of the NBPs’ voter intimidation, along with the unknowns that could emerge from the Blago trial ought to fill the “scandal” bill. Ditto for the surrender on Eastern Euro missile defense and the abject weakness vs. Iran for the “foreign policy failure” piece.
But 0bama needn’t worry. His pet SRM hacks won’t say or do anything to damage their adored and beloved Messiah.
What’s the point of 12 and 13? They just cancel each other out. That leads one to question his methodology, also many of these answers depends on who you ask.
And 7 is an odd one, because as written, it’s true. But the policy changes are hated
• KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (TRUE)
With the slightest bit of an opening, what Hillary dash for a challenge. She is going to be going on the ticket—either as the head or as Obama’s VP. Biden is done after this term.
They need to do something to spice things up.
(5) False: If this ain't a Re-De- Pre-Cession-Pression, what the heck is it?
(6) False:
(8) False: Tea Party
(9) False: Blago Trial, Soros, Jones, Oil Screw Up
(10) False: Foreign Policy a disaster
(4) False: Tea Party
(1) False: given
(2) False: Maybe. Hillary ain't dead.
9 negatives by my count. But so what? The GOP has an excellent history of throwing up a free lunch.