Posted on 08/19/2010 7:09:46 PM PDT by Free ThinkerNY
WASHINGTON — The Obama administration, citing evidence of continued troubles inside Iran’s nuclear program, has persuaded Israel that it would take roughly a year — and perhaps longer — for Iran to complete what one senior official called a “dash” for a nuclear weapon, according to American officials.
White House officials said they believe the assessment has dimmed the prospect that Israel would pre-emptively strike against the country’s nuclear facilities within the next year, as Israeli officials have suggested in thinly veiled threats.
For years, Israeli and American officials have debated whether Iran is on an inexorable drive toward a nuclear bomb and, if so, how long it would take to produce one. A critical question has been the time it would take Tehran to convert existing stocks of low-enriched uranium into weapons-grade material, a process commonly known as “breakout.”
Israeli intelligence officials had argued that Iran could complete such a race for the bomb in months, while American intelligence agencies have come to believe in the past year that the timeline is longer.
“We think that they have roughly a year dash time,” said Gary Samore, President Obama’s top adviser on nuclear issues, referring to how long it would take the Iranians to convert nuclear material into a working weapon. “A year is a very long period of time.”
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
That is REALLY, REALLY reassuring.
I do believe Israel has better intel than a Muslim.
Hell, they have better intel than our collective US Intel services...combined.... =.=
We need a post-Iran speech from the One.
And when Iran tests a bomb in Israel what good
will Obama’s assurances be then.
One recalls that the CIA was surprised when
Pakistan tested their bomb too.
Just like the rest of the assurances from the White House, recovery summer, right?
Israel is the frog being slowly cooked.
Jump out of the pot before it’s too late, Israel!
Was the message delivered by Chip “All is Well” Diller?
And it will begin with “Unexpectedly...”
Change you can't believe even as it's happening.
Is this from the folks who brought us Recovery Summer?
More:
“• Late 1991: In Congressional reports and CIA assessments, the US estimates that there is a ‘high degree of certainty that the government of Iran has acquired all or virtually all of the components required for the construction of two to three nuclear weapons.’ A February 1992 report by the US House of Representatives suggests that these two or three
nuclear weapons will be operational between February and April 1992 (73).
• Late October 1991: A US National Intelligence Estimate report says that Iran’s nuclear program appears disorganized and in its early stages. Richard H. Solomon, US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, says that China has sold nuclear related technologies to Iran despite earlier assurances that it would not sell such technologies to Iran (73).
• November 1991: Israeli officials contend that, using Pakistani assistance, Iran could make a nuclear bomb by the end of the decade. For their part, US officials estimate that it would take 10 to 15 years. According to a New York Times report (1 November), US analysts insist that Iran has neither the money nor the professional personnel to produce a nuclear weapon in a short time. One expert said that although China may assist Iran in
nuclear weapons development, such assistance ‘will certainly not be on the scale of Western help to Iraq’ (73).
• February 24, 1993: CIA Director James Woolsey says that Iran is still 8 to 10 years away from being able to produce its own nuclear weapon, though if it were assisted from abroad; it could become a nuclear power earlier (73).
• December 13, 1993: According to Defense News, the CIA ‘believes that Iran could have nuclear weapons within eight to 10 years, even without critical assistance form abroad’ (73).
• February 16, 1994: According to the latest CIA estimates, Iran could develop a nuclear bomb in six to eight years, although its nuclear weapons program is still in an early stage and relies on foreign technology and expertise (73).
• September 23, 1994: CIA Director James Woolsey says that, ‘Iran is eight to ten years away from building [nuclear] weapons, and that help from the outside will be critical in reaching that timetable. Iran has been particularly active in trying to purchase nuclear materials or technology clandestinely from Russian sources. Iran is also looking to purchase fully-fabricated nuclear weapons in order to accelerate sharply its timetable’ (73).
• January 5, 1995: US Defense Secretary William Perry says that Iran may be less than five years from building an atomic bomb though ‘how soon … depends how they go about getting it.’ Perry said buying or stealing a bomb from one of the Soviet states could happen in ‘a week, a month, five years.’ Alternatively, if Tehran could obtain a large amount of highly enriched uranium, then ‘five years is on the high end’ (73).
• January 1995: The director of the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, John Holum, testifies that Iran could have the bomb by 2003 (74).
• January 19, 1995: According to Thomas Graham, Special U.S. Representative for Nonproliferation, Iran has ‘no current program’ for producing weapons-grade fissile materials. ‘They are not that far along,’ he added (74).
• February 29, 1996: Lynn Davis, US Undersecretary of State, says that Iran is ‘many years away’ from possessing a nuclear weapons capability, but stealing nuclear technology or material ‘can reduce the time dramatically in terms of developing a weapon’ (74).
• April 29, 1996: Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres says ‘he believe that in four years, they [Iran] may reach nuclear weapons’ (74).
• March 1997: John Holum, director of the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, testifies to a House panel that Iran could develop a nuclear bomb sometime between 2005 and 2007 (74).
• June 26, 1997: General Binford Peay, US military commander in the Persian Gulf, says that Iran may have nuclear weapons ‘some time at the turn of the century, the near-end of the turn of the century’ if it gets access to fissionable material (74).
• October 21, 1998: General Anthony Zinni, head of US Central Command, says Iran could have the capacity to deliver nuclear weapons within five years; ‘If I were a betting man,’ he said, ‘I would say they are on track within five years, they would have the capability’ (74).
• November 21, 1999: According to a senior Israeli official, Iran will have a nuclear capability within five years, unless Russian military aid to Iran stops (74).
• January 17, 2000: A new CIA assessment on Iran’s nuclear capabilities says that the CIA cannot be ruled out the possibility that Iran may possess nuclear weapons. This analysis is based on the CIA’s admission that it cannot monitor Iran’s nuclear activities with any precision and hence cannot exclude the prospect that Iran may have nuclear
weapons (74).
• September 20, 2000: According to the CIA, Iran is ‘attempting to develop the capability to produce both plutonium and highly enriched uranium, and it is actively pursuing the acquisition of fissile material and the expertise and technology necessary to form the material into nuclear weapons.’ A CIA official also claimed that Iran could be in a
position to test fire an ICBM within five years (74).
• February 6, 2002: CIA Director George Tenet tells the Senate that Iran is seeking longrange ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction and will probably succeed in having them by 2015. He also said that Iran ‘may be able to indigenously produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon by the end of this decade … obtaining material from outside could cut years from this estimate’ (74).”
Excellent, cranked, you just keep that up. Keep on believing the Iranian pursuit of the bomb is all a fiction cooked up by the CIA ... right until that point they set off their first one.
All your post proves is how opaque totalitarian countries are. We had equal difficulty determining when the Soviet Union, China, India, and Pakistan would go nuclear. To this day no one really knows when Israel got the bomb.
But they all did it at some point, didn’t they?
Oh PLEASE....
I’ll wager that the Israelis won’t believe a word the Hussein regime says on the subject.
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