Posted on 06/15/2011 9:27:51 PM PDT by neverdem
You really ought to read the article.
Earth may be headed into a mini Ice Age within a decade
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2734777/posts
Scientists predict rare ‘hibernation’ of sunspots
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2734864/posts
New insights on how solar minimums affect Earth
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2734760/posts
Sun’s Fading Spots Signal Big Drop in Solar Activity
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2734593/posts
It also appears that volcanic activity has increased over the past few months. Increased volcanic activity, if it puts enough extra sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere, can cause global cooling. Increased volcanic activity was known to precede some of the colder spikes during the Maunder Minimum, and there was generally increased volcanic activity during the Minimum.
Actually, if these predictions hold, we won’t be hearing as much from the AGW crowd for a while. It will allow for plenty of time to develop alternate energy sources — which would not be subsidized. The future of cap and trade is fading.
You are correct on both, but after reading the article I stand by my statement. No man understands how the Sun works. Some delude themselves that they do.
1. All sunspot cycles are not the same length. How long is a sunspot cycle (11 years? 14 years?)? It is however long it takes.
2. There are more components to sunspot data than the number of sunspots or the geomagnetic activity.
3. Weather patterns are determined by sunspot activity and somewhat by volcanic activity (which may be related to sunspot and planetary events.
Accurate data past sunspot numbers are a fairly resent thing. So when using geomagnetic activity to predict the future we are using a fairly short period of time to draw conclusions from.
I am not a physicist, climatologist or earth scientist. But I do have a clear understanding of RF and electromagnetic waves. I have been a Ham for over 35 years and hold both an Amateur Extra and a GROL. I am/was a builder, not an appliance operator.
I have many friends in Las Cruces where the meeting took place. I have great respect for many who work in the Labs in NM.
I don't know anything about SwRI. I do know that a lot of "Science" today is more about funding than about honesty in results. That knowledge was shaped by friend who worked in research groups during my 14 years in NM. And by the fact that my father-in-law was connected to that research by his 40 years in the weapons industry.
In my opinion we are at the bottom of the current sunspot cycle and beginning to come out of the minimum. I draw that conclusion from the number of solar flares and by the weather patterns where I live. It was 106 degrees here 2 days ago. We are in the worst drought in this part of Texas in over 100 years. The last time we had similar local weather conditions here was back in 1895.
In my best Seinfeld voice: "No....I don't think you do."
Neither this paper...or the 1/2 dozen other papers I have read about this subject over the last 2 days are talking about cycle 24. They are talking about cycle 25.
I AM a meteorologist...have done a lot of space wx forecasting (forcibly and reluctantly at first...starting in 2002)...and a solar cycle is NOT generally how long it takes as if it is some random number. It is usually 11 years. But again...that is not the point of the article. They are speaking of the NEXT cycle...which would peak in 2024.
There are certain things that start NOW in order for the next cycle to appear 13 years from now. They aren't there. There has been MUCH speculation for a while now that we could be headed into another Maunder min. There has been a tremendous drop in solar flux...magnetism...etc. Low sunspot counts are just part of the reason we think we are headed into a min and this research seems to back it up.
No man understands how the sun works? Well...just because you don't doesn't mean there aren't those scientists that have a real good understanding. Are there some mysteries left? Sure...but you make it sound as if all of mankind is back in the dark ages about the workings of the sun...alongside with you.
You may be a fossil...but there are others that aren't. And yes...we are coming into SolarMAX. However...our drought in Texas has more to do with La Nina than it does with the Solar cycle.
Another problem inherited from the Bush administration, I see.
Do you work for a TV station, a research institute or the government?
My wife was a fan of Dan True. (an Amarillo weather forecaster) He wrote a book once that described his years predicting the weather. In his description he marveled about how his employer could spend millions of dollars on equipment and still the best he could do was be right a bit more than 50% of the time. But when you come right down to it, weather forecasting at TV stations is not about public service (there is an element of that) but about making money. The more they get the public excited about the weather the more viewers they have the more ad money they make. That is why they spend so much on equipment.
The Maunder Minimum was from roughly 1650 to 1700. Correct? What method other than tree rings gives scientist the data to support that? I am not saying it is impossible, but I am skeptical about those who use scientific data covering a period that far back.
I remember how far off the "brightest and best" scientist were when they used remote measurements to analyze the Saturn Rings. Then when they actually used a satellite up close it was radically different.
An ice age wouldn't happen in a year, but significant changes could happen in as little as a decade. During the last major ice, the British Isles went from being warmer than today, to largely covered by glaciers, in about a century.
Interesting, all the records being broken in this area (snowfall depth, spring river height) date from the same general era. It may be that you are correct about the cycle.
BFL
1895
That year was not just pulled from some database. Some of my ancestors moved to Haskell County, TX in 1886 but my great-grandfather left in 1895 for 3 years because of a similar extreme drought.
My father is 85 and he experienced the drought in 1952 but has told me he thinks this is worse, and reflected back on what he was told about the 1895 events.
My family has farmed here since 1886. Other of the family members stayed here in the 1895 drought. Crop production is a lot more than rainfall, sunshine and temperatures. The nightime temperatures have a big effect on some crops.
The farmers are always talking about the weather. They are unscientific on a lot of subjects, but know when weather changes.
The liberal response to a predicted Maunder Minimum: http://m.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/06/solar-minimum-climate/
We are certainly in agreement on that statement.
Yes, I knew there were observations on temperature and sunspot count a long way back. I did not know it went back to the 1600's. Even so, I am sure the data is not that complete.
Yep. I come from a long line of farmers myself (over 300 years where I grew up).
Mine may be limited to a garden, but I pay attention when the locals here talk about the weather--especially my elders, and my wife is from a local family who have been minding the weather longer than mine.
The right 50% of the time is a joke amongst weather men...we are right much more than that. The forecaster who is only as right as a coin flip really needs to give it up. I can put out a forecast for SE TX right now...for the next 3 months...and be correct within a small MOE 90% of the time based on how I see the long term patterns setting up. Here's a hint: The drought will continue through September and it will be above normal temps.
And yes...TV is about money. They just regurgitate what the MWS is saying. Very few TV weather people are actual mets. Most are broadcast journalists with a weather emphasis...like a sports caster for weather.
To answer your other question about the Maunder Min: It was from abt 1645 - 1715. It was actually very well observed. Picard and Cassini (and numerous others) carried out direct observations of the sun. Those observations have been preserved...correlated and cross-referenced. So we know there was an absence. If I remember correctly, sunspot observation started in the late 1500's or early 1600's and they observed with their own eyes numerous sunspots...then watched the sunspots disappear for 70 years.
Now...couple this with a reversal of the PDO...and we are likely to see a period of very cold weather over the next 30-40 years.
BTW...I see you are into HAM. HAM radio is something I know little about (I am getting another shortwave...but also want to get into HAM as part of my prepper-preperations). Any recommendations for learning a little more?
So my observations would point in the opposite of yours.....
Yep, extreme weather variability during sunspot minimums and maximums.
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