Conservatives, Romney, and Electability

Online.wsj.com ^ | November 23, 2011 | Michael Medved

[rocky88]

"In short, the electoral experience of the last 50 years does nothing to undermine the common-sense notion that most political battles are won by seizing and holding the ideological center. In the last two presidential elections, more than 44% of voters described themselves as "moderate," and no conservative candidate could possibly prevail without coming close to winning half of them (as George W. Bush did in his re-election).

The notion that ideologically pure conservative candidates can win by disregarding centrists and magically producing previously undiscovered legions of true-believer voters remains a fantasy. It is not a strategy. At the moment, it is easy to imagine Mitt Romney appealing to many citizens who would never consider Rick Perry or Herman Cain. It is much harder (if not impossible) to describe the sort of voter—Republican, Democrat or independent—who would refuse to support Mr. Romney (over Barack Obama!) but would somehow eagerly back Messrs. Perry, Cain or Gingrich, let alone Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum or Ron Paul.

Conservatives, as well as their moderate and progressive neighbors, may have plenty of reasons to oppose Mitt Romney in favor of some rival candidate. Electability can't reasonably count as one of them."

[Stonewall Jackson]

Talking about the Cheney clone, do you have anyone specific in mind? There are a number of up-and-coming young Republicans that I think will turn the Party back to its Conservative roots and was wondering if we were thinking alike.

Some of the names on my list include Bobby Jindal, Mark Rubio, Rand Paul (not Ron), and Nikki Haley. Are they on your list, and if not could you please explain.

I'm trying to make sure I have full loads of ammo before I go up against some of my liberal coworkers this election cycle.

[Rome2000]

I think if Romney wins then Paul goes third party. I'd say Paul is at 9% now

Somebody will.

There is no upside to putting a slick con man degenerate coward snake oil salesman like WILLARD RINO ROMNEY in the WH.

If the GOP primary voters don't have enough brains to tell Romney to jump in a lake, the GOP deserves to die.

[rocky88]

Awesome post, Migraine and very sad but true. That’s why we don’t even hear anything negative about Mitt at all and the MSM just beats up all the other candidates. I pray that Mitt doesn’t get it, but the laziness of the average person getting their news from their MSN Homepage scares me. They simply may vote for him because they haven’t heard anything negative about him. And if he gets it...then what? We just buckle?

I think Newt could beat him, despite his baggage. All he needs to do is dress him down directly in a debate, IMO.

[nathanbedford]

I think the lesson to take from this is that smart money does not predicate a presidential election campaign on either pandering to the base at the expense of the middle or abandoning the base to pander to the middle.

Winning presidential campaigns, whether it's Dwight Eisenhower, or Ronald Reagan, Harry Truman or Lyndon Johnson, all dominate the theater of the election.

The idea is to generate momentum. Even a vapid idea that generates momentum will win, "hope and change", for example, won big. Obama did not win because of his slogan of "hope and change" but because the idea of his race as the first black occupant of the White House created momentum which swept all before it.

In other words, a successful presidential campaign articulates a vision, something that emotionally moves the electorate. That vision, if it dominates the theater of the election, wins.

That is why the Democrats so often resort to demagoguery, especially racialist demagoguery, because they really do not otherwise have a vision for America which appeals so they seek to change the subject.

Why are Barak Obama and George Soros ginning up the Occupy Wall Street movement?

[floridarunner01]

The GOP is a big tent. Like it or not, that’s reality. Not everyone who is a “registered Republican” is a social conservative. Many are fiscal conservatives. Many are actually libertarians. Yes, many are also moderates and maybe even lean liberal. And many are a combination. I mean there are many Ron Paul types that are against drug enforcement.

Everyone is supporting their guy/woman right now. But eventually we will have a primary. Every Republican will vote on who the nominee should be. That’s how we settle this debate. We all vote. And in the end, you may not like the result. But if you want to beat Obama, everyone will have to rally behind the person the party voted for.

[goldstategop]

Barack Obama won in 2008 because he ran as the most conservative candidate. In the debates, he told Americans he would cut spending and reduce taxes.

A center-left candidate has never gotten elected President in this country on a promise to expand the welfare state.

Obama can’t change his liberal record so my guess is he will have to make the election a referendum on his GOP opponent. The MSM is already pulling the punches on the White House’s re-election strategy.

[Nik Naym]

“many conservatives here intend to punish the other conservatives and/or Republicans (and business owners, Christians, whites, and other groups of people Obama/Holder want to destroy) by not showing up to vote or by voting third party - do I have this right? “

NO. You don’t have it right. In fact you sound like an idiot. If you equate NOT voting for Romney with punishing conservatives, Christians, and business owners then you are out of touch with reality.

[rocky88]

Awesome explanation - you definitely make great points about OWS and the emotion of it. Do you think Newt can do the same to the general electorate by calling out the corrupt MSM? You know, getting people worked up because they figure out (with Newt’s help) they’ve been lied to all these years? When I think about it, no other GOP candidate has a ‘meme’ (except maybe Ron Paul but I don’t consider him GOP) except for Newt. Thoughts?

[goldstategop]

And if the majority of Republican voters decide they want a RINO, I can’t support that candidate.

I respect their right to be stupid but I won’t assent to the party’s desire to commit political suicide.

[Poison Pill]

We will have an election in 2016, OK. Obama will not be re-elected. Romney will not get the nomination. He can't crack 25 pct on his second go around. Why? because nobody wants him, that's why. Romney is to the left of everyone. (Except maybe Paul depending on the issue). What going on now is the anti- Romney sweepstakes. The election will turn on the repeal of Obamacare. It's the corner stone of a government without limits. About 1/2 the country wants it, 1/2 don't. Romney can't make the repeal argument because of what he did in MA.

The ONLY reason Newt is getting so much traction is his glibness and ability to debate. Folks like the idea of Newt making the anti-Obamacare case.

[rocky88]

That is the message I am getting here, that if Romney’s the guy and conservatives don’t get their candidate nominated, that some will just let the roots of our country (Christianity, free enterprise, etc) die off via voting 3rd party or not at all...because that is what will happen under a 2nd Obama term. Or do you believe things will not get worse for our country if Obama is reelected?

[nathanbedford]

Yes, exactly!

John McCain never got it. Sarah Palen instinctively understood the need to win the drama of the election.

Newt gets it. He manifests that, for example, by his challenge to Obama for the Lincoln Douglas debates. That alone does not show that Gingrich gets it, but his follow up threat to dog Obama from place to place and steal the news cycle does.

Gingrich understands that he must dominate to win. Once the top dog position is obtained, the issues themselves become as artillery shells.

Despite all of Gingrich's liabilities, his power to dominate the theater of the election at this time of national crisis becomes determinative for me. There is no alternative with that promise.

[rocky88]

I pray that you are correct! And I have been happy to see that Mitt can’t get above that 25% - he’s just doesn’t have that ‘it’ factor about him that makes him stand out. BUT the fact that he is untarnished going into NH, SC, IA is scary. If Newt can win NH, I see a positive outcome for America.

[goldstategop]

Gingrich is in favor of an individual mandate, global warming and ethanol subsidies.

Pick your poison pill. Either way, the GOP is screwed.

[rocky88]

you should be a political consultant, LOL

Great points and thanks for putting into words what I’ve seen Newt doing that gets me excited in the same way that Sarah Palin does when she speaks!!!

do you think if Newt wins NH then Romney’s done? Can Newt still win the nod if he loses NH?

[goldstategop]

Apparently, the fact he wants to legalize millions of illegals, is tight with the tan skinned Nazi and race baiter Sharpton and Jihad Norquist, is enough to send folks here into orgasms. I’ve learned never to underestimate the desperation of some so-called conservatives.

[privatedrive]

Impossible to describe a voter who would shun Mitt for Newt? What is this guy smokin?

[Poison Pill]

he’s just doesn’t have that ‘it’ factor about him

Voila!

There is always one candidate that has "it" and one that doesn't. Obama had it last time because he was a vessel into which people could pour their hopes and dreams of a bright shining future America where a ..... blah, blah, blah. Now? He's a hack. And worse, a disengaged hack. When Chris Matthews turns you know the underbelly is exposed.

The question now is who one the GOP side has it? Mittens? No.

[no dems]

I said this before but it bears repeating here:

Romney will end up being the GOP nominee because the Conservatives cannot unite behind one candidate. It’s the nature of the Conservative beast: We will bite our nose off to spite our face. Start preparing your hearts, and minds, NOW my FReeper Brothers and Sisters; it is very possible we have blown this thing and Obozo will be back in the White House for 4 more years. Many Conservatives will stay home or vote Third Party before they’ll vote for Romney, while the Dems, on the other hand, even though many are very disappointed in Obozo, will unite together in the end, as they always do, and defeat a wounded, splintered Repuplican Party again.

[eclecticEel]

The guy who thought McCain was a winner last election cycle has an opinion? How cute.