This is not a problem for me because I can always snag lots of Independents ... just like I did in the 2010 election!
Posted on 12/08/2011 12:15:50 AM PST by Zakeet
President Obama’s uphill battle to re-election is getting steeper.
A report released today by the centrist think-tank Third Way showed that more than 825,000 voters in eight key battleground states have fled the Democratic Party since Obama won election in 2008.
“The numbers show that Democrats’ path to victory just got harder,” said Lanae Erickson, the report’s co-author. “We are seeing both an increase in independents and a decrease in Democrats and that means the coalition they have to assemble is going to rely even more on independents in 2012 than it did in 2008.”
Amid frustrating partisan gridlock and unprecedentedly low party-approval ratings, the number of voters registering under a major party is falling fast, but it is also falling disproportionately.
In eight states that will be must-wins in 2012 – Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina and Pennsylvania – Democrats lost 5.4 percent of their registered voters while Republicans lost 3.1 percent. The number of independent voters in those states jumped 3.4 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
This is not a problem for me because I can always snag lots of Independents ... just like I did in the 2010 election!
all states obama won thanks to massive registerstrations in 08 but now pretty much slipping away and back to pre 08 levels...doesnt mean they like us any better..
Colorado obama, Florida us, Iowa obama, Nevada obama, New Hampshire obama, New Mexico obama, North Carolina us and Pennsylvania obama
i only got us pulling 2 out of 8 in 2012...happy days
“all states obama won thanks to massive registerstrations in 08 but now pretty much slipping away and back to pre 08 levels...doesnt mean they like us any better..”
The change in registration only shows the most annoyed of the many... The number of people who are disgusted with Obama but still consider themselves democrats is large. That makes Obama’s position even weaker than these numbers would appear to suggest. A democrat vote is not a guaranteed vote for the One.
Since we don’t see people changing from Independent to Democrat (or Republican either) it says both parties have failed to capture anyone’s allegiance - increasingly. That means these are people are open to a new approach - something Obama is incapable of providing.
This election is the most important election America ever faced. Do we want a Marxist in for another 4 years?
I wondered how People would react or if they would react as Most People do when they Realize they have Been Suckered.
So will someone please explain (with hard numbers NOT fear) how Obama will be “very hard to beat” as we have heard over and over again?
Yeah, sure, right. Even the indys jumped ship a long, long time ago Obama. Stick a fork in, you are cooked.
All this means is that people increasingly dislike the two parties. They’re just disliking the dems more this week. They’re not rushing to embrace the gop.
You’re likely wrong. Although both parties diminished the number of registered Democrats usually outnumbers Republicans.
The loss of 5.4% of Democrats is a much bigger number than the loss of 3.1% of Republicans. This is very good news for Newt or Romney both of which can claim some mantel of being ‘outside’ or ‘different’. Obama can only attack them on a limited front and he and Axelrod have thrown all in with their class warfare attack, but in their blind Leninism they misread the electorate.
They want jobs and economic liberty, something the Democrats cannot provide.
Obama/Axelrod have thrown all their eggs in the 99% basket because they expect Romney to be the nominee. Newt is simply regular GOP when it comes to the class warfare attack Axelrod is going with. It’s not particularly smart of Axelrod, so expect them to go after Newt hard. They want Romney, wounded, but nominated.
Here’s just how dopey their attack sounds against Newt: “Look, for the longest time, Gingrich was not really a factor in this race, he was left for dead at the checkout counter at Tiffany’s,” said David Axelrod, a chief adviser to the president’s re-election bid. “Now he is resurgent and he could be the nominee.”
From this article: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/08/us/politics/campaign-2012-democrats-see-2-horse-race-between-romney-and-gingrich.html?_r=1&hp
The Tiffany’s thing is so 20th century. It’s been debunked, but Axelrod’s such a commie that he cannot think outside the box.
No, amid a dash toward marxism.
So will someone please explain (with hard numbers NOT fear) how Obama will be “very hard to beat” as we have heard over and over again?
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He wouldn’t be hard to beat, however there is no guarantee that he will be the candidate. The puppeteers who run him will pull him out in a NY minute and nominate someone else. The people will elect Anyone But Obama, not a Republican.
Hillary is the obvious choice and she is worse than Obama and also has close to no experience except as a consort (and probably a poor one at that.).
It's an uphill climb to get to 271 electoral votes if you have no hope whatsoever of winning: California (55), New York (29), all of New England except for NH (29), Illinois (20), Oregon and Washington (19), New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and D.C. (30) - that's 182 guaranteed electoral votes for Democrats, no matter who the G.O.P. nominates. That leaves the Dems only 89 votes short of victory.
At the same time, the number of electoral votes that the Republicans can truly bank on today is smaller: SC, MS, AL, KY, TN, TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, WY, ID, MT, UT, and AK - 124 votes (and I'm perhaps begin generous by throwing in TN and KY). A number of formerly "solid" GOP states are now toss-ups: NC, GA, IN, IA, MO, CO, and AZ. Two others now clearly lean Democrat: NV and NM.
So, that's one quantifiable problem. Another is the huge monetary and organizational advantage enjoyed by Democrats. They will have well over a billion dollars in campaign funds - both directly and as funneled through public sector labor unions and "non-profit" advocacy organizations directly funded by left-wing foundations and indirectly by Spooky Dude himself, George Soros.
And then.... we have the influx of illegal aliens, a number of whom are clearly are voting, as organized by the aforementioned labor unions and their powerful "get-out-the-vote-whether-you're-eligible-or-not" efforts. This venture is particularly damaging to Republican prospects in key swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina, and also in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, all of which have otherwise been slowly trending toward the GOP. Example: in 2008, Democrat victories in PA and OH were exclusively due to massive Democrat voter turnout in Cuyahoga County, Ohio (Cleveland) and in both Philadelphia's and Pittsburgh's center city precincts.
In order to counter such turnout efforts, the GOP needs to get its (more suburban and rural) voters to the polls in great numbers, too. And this is the final, and less numerically-oriented issue. The Republican Party's leadership is disorganized, unfocused and uncomfortable, to say the least, with its own base voters. Others (like me) might put the matter more bluntly: the D.C.-based GOP leadership is effectively at war with its own voters because that leadership is part of the Ruling Class and is actually more comfortable with Democrats in their own sphere of influence than they are with their own rank-and-file GOP voters out "in the districts".
The candidates who have so far arisen to challenge Obama seem to range from the lackluster to the lying to the ludicrous. I don't find any of the top candidates particularly inspirational - do you? And like it or not, that is a real problem. If Republican candidates cannot inspire Republicans, how are they going to inspire anyone else?
Long story, short: Obama is so truly awful in what he now unabashedly intends for America (endless class warfare and paternalistic state socialism) that he repels - frightens - a great number of decent Americans, and thus remains beatable. But you can't beat something with nothing. And right now - we got nothin'.
As long as we eat our own and third party runs divide our vote we are lost. O will get to finish “remaking America”.
We have to dump O or our country will not survive.
Colorado won’t go 0bama in 2012.
The reason we “eat our own” is because conservatives have no clear leader and the people currently running the GOP hate us.
“......California (55), New York (29), all of New England except for NH (29), Illinois (20), Oregon and Washington (19), New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and D.C. (30) - that’s 182 guaranteed electoral votes for Democrats.......”
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I don’t think those states you mentioned are really guaranteed for the dems. I offer the following factors in 2012 that were not and issue in 2008: (1) The dems have lost the independents and will not get them back. (2) They are loosing large amounts of democrat voters such that many dem congressmen don’t want to be affiliated with Obama (they don’t even want him to stump for them). (3) Whenever Obama speaks now, his ratings go down. In 2008, he spoke of hope and change in platitudes. He does not have that now and people tired of hearing him. He will have to do a lot of talking in the upcoming campaign and this time it will only hurt him. (4) There will be many dem voters who will stay at home this time around. There is no enthusiasm in a lousy economy. (5) If Cain is chosen as the VP, he will definitely take a good percentage of the black vote.
While covention wisdom says that those states you listed will go dems, I don’t think it is a lock in 2012. They are going to have to work hard in some of those states just to keep them. The enthusiasm is gone and people are tired of Hussien. I would not be surprised if some of those states actually go to the GOP in 2012.
“The loss of 5.4% of Democrats is a much bigger number than the loss of 3.1% of Republicans.”
A 2.3% difference is not a much bigger number in my book. And note that both dems AND gop lost registered voters. The independent “pox on both your houses” coalition seems to be growing. The gop has not capitalized on voter disaffection, otherwise they would be gaining numbers, not losing them.
The GOP may not be gaining numbers, but they will gain voters. In my family alone, I know of four former Democrats that will not be voting for Obama this time. They are voting Republican and are now registered Independent.
Adding in friends that I have talked to, my immediate circle includes 8 Obama voters that are pulling the Republican lever in Iowa in 2012.
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