Perry + Bachmann combined was at around 5 percent. Now Perry + Bachmann combined is 23 percent.
That’s 18 percent. Pretty much all the Cain supporters.
Romney, has dropped from around 25 percent to 12, 13 percent of whom have gone to Newt.
Analysis seems pretty clear.
1. Cain supporters to Perry + Bachmann. Romney supporters to Newt, because Romney can’t win.
There are many problems with your math: first you are taking static assumptions from a fluid process. Second, you are starting Cain’s decline from the end, I am starting at Cain’s peak. Third, you are ignoring (probably because it hurts your thesis) Newt’s tea party support which certainly is not the same as Mitt’s support or the establishment support - and fourth you are ignoring the incredible establishment backlash against Newt.
I am sure that RP and MB got some of Cain’s support. I am also sure that Newt got some. And I think Romneys support that left, most of whom are not as ideologically dogmatic as those on FR, have spread out among almost all of the candidates because they were shallow name ID supporters anyway.
Well, according to your reading of the bones and tea leaves analysis, it’s pretty simple then. Get Perry or Bachmann to drop out and throw his/her support behind the other and you may have a contender.