I don’t think your looking at it right. The theory is that Ohio is a hard battleground simply because of all the negative attacks early in the campaign. PA has no such issue. Coal country has never been hit harder than under Zero. All we have to do is overcome a predictably depressed Phily turnout and we can win it. Democrats have known for years it was only a matter of time before PA went red. This may be the year.
I think those hard-hit coal areas are typically Republican anyway though, and I don’t think they’re heavily populated, so there’s not much to gain there. If Romney wins PA, it’ll be because he’s a moderate Republican in the mold of Bush, Sr. He might not scare off the socially liberal, pro-choice, anti-war, anti-gun, environmentalist soccer moms of the Philly burbs who nevertheless are wealthy enough that they would enjoy tax cuts and have no need for Obama’s handouts.
I don’t see a depressed turnout in Philly, among minorities or among Obama’s far-left base in the state. And the hardcore union-type Dems in northeastern PA that always vote Dem are not going to even consider going Republican and will turn out like clockwork. Romney’s got one card to play, the socially liberal soccer moms, and I don’t believe he’ll be successful enough with them to carry the day.
His best shot at making up for a loss in Ohio is taking Wisconsin, Colorado and New Hampshire. But I think he has a better chance in Ohio than in Pennsylvania due to the evangelicals.