I agree that there are so many influences on the climate that it seems foolish to focus on any one to predict future outcomes. However the correlation between recorded sun spot activity and recorded temperatures and historical events is much greater than random noise. And actually considering that nearly all of the warmists climate models have now been shown to be worse than random noise... that actually is somewhat impressive.
The Old Farmer's Almanac has been using sunspot activity in its “secret formula” to predict the climate since 1792. They have a much better track record than our current batch of “top government climate scientists”. I think that is pretty funny.
You are correct also that local and regional weather phenomena such as the drought that you mentioned are related to a myriad of factors that make them nearly impossible to predict more than a month or two out with reasonable accuracy.
Also the conglomerate historical surface temperature record is not necessarily accurate enough to draw good conclusions from. There are a number of problems such as siting issues and possibly more importantly those who are responsible for keeping the records have been known to “adjust” and manipulate the data in ways that support the conclusions that they want to advance.
“During that minimum Texas has had a drought and extreme heat that no living humans have seen before.”
I am not sure if that is an accurate statement or not.
There are most likely people in Texas who lived through the 1930s a time which was very likely as hot and dry as it was during the last few years. But I write this as someone who has spent the past 50 some years in a much cooler part of the country so I really have no way of knowing. It sounds like it has been really, really miserable down there though.
My great great grandfather moved to this county in 1889. In 1895 there was a horrible drought pattern here. So bad that he took part of the family back to Coryell County (near Gatesville) for 3 years. He moved back in 1898. My family has continuously owned/farmed land here since 1895. On the word of my 87 year old father and members of other early settler families, there is no "living" human who has seen such local drought conditions. It has locally been discussed at length and I am confident that my statement is correct.
Some liken this drought to the 1930's and the 1950's. My father farmed here during the 1950's drought. (he will be 88 in August) My grandfather farmed during the 1930's drought. I assure you, that farmers still talk about the weather, and none of them affect the weather. hee hee hee
And thank you for your observations. I do not think we are far apart on this at all.