Posted on 04/06/2016 4:23:34 AM PDT by ctdonath2
Here are some ways the Republican and Democratic nominating contests could unfold. Adjust the sliders to see how the outcomes can change. Each line in the charts represents one possible outcome.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
And it's still two freaking months before this horse race is over and the next one starts.
I thought Cruz could still theoretically win, but he needs nearly 90% of the remaining delegates. What I wonder is, what will he do if it becomes mathematically impossible? Will he stay in as a spoiler and hope for a contested convention, or will he cede to Trump in an effort to destroy the GOPe? If he’s truly an outsider, anti-establishment guy, he should do the latter (cede to Trump). However, I think he’ll do the former and hand the convention to the GOPe.
Interesting site. Thanks.
There are 769 delegates remaining in the upcoming primaries. Cruz currently has 502. 1,237 needed to win nomination.
1,237 - 502 = 735 needed to win
769 - 735 = 34 “margin”
So, of the remaining 769 delegates, Cruz needs to win 735. It is already an impossibility.
Thanks ctdonath2.
Cruz is a spoiler now. He can steal some delegates using the arcane gotcha rules in some states plus whatever he can get coming in second place in most states hoping to simply deny Trump the 1237. He then believes that the GOP will annoit him. And they may even do that as an act of self preservation because is will guarantee a hillary win. They will even feed hillary intelligence in the background to help her. This will preserve the party in their mind.
That is the game, even if the Cruz campaign, along with the press (for the moment) is touting Wisconsin as a "turning point" in the campaign.
The reality is April 19 is the NY primary with 95 delegates. Unless Cruz wins 61 of them, his "margin" or "cushion" of 34 delegates to lose will be gone. So after April 19, Cruz falls into the Katich mathematically un-winable zone of reaching 1,237 delegates.
Cruz wins 100% of the vote in the remaining primaries and he still falls short. Why doesn't he get out? Oh, that's right, he really believes he's going to be anointed at a contested convention by a GOPe that is only using him and which utterly despises him.
What a tool.
I have been saying for awhile that Trump will secure the nomination after California votes. Most people keep listing California as proportional. Which is WRONG.
California is winner take all (by congressional district) Just like Wisconsin!
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Wisconsin - Winner take all by state (18 delegates) and individual district (8 districts x 3 delegates =24)
California - Winner take all by state (10 delegates) and individual district (53 districts x 3 delegates =159)
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So a big win by Trump in California will result in him winning all the congressional districts and thus winning ALL the delegates, just like Cruz just won all the delegates from Wisconsin.
I have not seen a SINGLE news reporter talking about Trump coming up short that has gotten this right. They usually give Trump about 100 or so of California’s delegates. I think they are purposely doing it to keep the horse race talk going. Because pretending Trump will only get 100 or so from California is the only way they can make it look like Trump will come up short.
Virginia and Ohio.
Ted Cruz did not win 20% of the Vote in those three States.
He did not win a county in those three States.
In Ohio and Florida he came in third in a 4 person race. Third in Virginia , too.
Any Cruz supporter can name the President who lost those three STATES.
Get out now , Cruz.
You won;'t win a State in a month.
He's worth a twitter follow. He consistently projected a Cruz victory in Wisconsin. He also projects huge Trump delegate wins in New York (and he rest of the East) and California.
Trump supporters, myself included, were disappointed in Wisconsin result, but it was not unexpected.
Interesting, but sliding one slider changes the others, and it assumes kasick stays in.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3417898/posts?page=1#1
Mrs. Bill is entitled: the most popular woman ever to trod the planet and confident to the hilt.
Yea, I have been thinking that R. Priebus could be first GOP national chairman in history to vote Democrat!
If you believe that Trump will win in absolutely every district in California, your analysis is correct.
I don’t believe that that outcome is expected.
Mrs. Bill must be elated at the turn of events: she can win still by losing nearly everywhere. People like Mrs. Bill and wonder what “programs” she has in mind for them.
Ted can use this slogan: Ted Cruz: Fighting for Real New York Values!
Kasich still believes in himself, Buckeye or not!
A big win for Trump in California? LOL!
Trump’s got his hands full holding on to New York.
Trump has some very good policy positions, but he is a terrible candidate in that he blunders into some incredible faux pas, and he comes off as petty and juvenile and vindictive. He would really be an attractive candidate if he “cleaned up his act.” Being an iconoclast — and he is that — is a good thing, and he can parlay that to the presidency if he plays it right.
But, he won’t. It just isn’t who he is.
I voted for Trump in my state’s primary (though my decision was neck-and-neck with Ted Cruz).
I like a lot of things about Ted Cruz, as well. I just don’t think he is electable in the general election.
Still, if the GOPe throw us another designated loser and stiff Trump and Cruz, I will simply write in one of them in November, because by that time the GOP will be dead as it will be clear to everybody that the GOPe will happily cede the election — and the country and its future — to the rabid progressives on the left.
I hate to sound pessimistic, but I’m afraid the magic and beauty of what America was created to be is coming to an end. It was a hell of a ride, though, wasn’t it? Unless there is a traumatic change, with all that entails,
it will be generations before that America can resurrect, like the proverbial Phoenix.
I’m glad I’m 65 and have no children. I would despair to think what they would have to go through under the fascist progressives.
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